NASCAR Cup Series Picks: Quiktrip 500 From Atlanta

This Sunday afternoon from Hotlanta, NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series will race the Quiktrip 500.

A lot of NASCAR events have been delayed lately because of the rain but we are expecting decent weather on Sunday. It will be cloudy and an always muggy 86.

Atlanta Motor Speedway is a 1.5 mile oval, the most common track type in NASCAR.

This track is also one of the fastest in NASCAR granted the restrictor plates are on the cars at Daytona and Talladega.

Team Penske’s Brad Keselowski won here last year and has taken the checkered flag in 2 of the last three races.

Along with Martin Truex Jr and Kurt Busch, he has 7 top ten finishes in the last 10 Atlanta races.

The Penske Ford are sneaking up on the Chevy’s these past few races.

Please Note:
Atlanta is a track that rewards speed and for that reason, I might be fading Joe Gibbs Racing.

I am normally picking Hamlin, Truex, or Jones every week and these guys can win but the JGR cars are currently lacking that pop we have seen from the other two manufacturers.

BetOnline.AG has our betting odds and we will play with a few different kinds.

Let’s make our predictions for NASCAR’s Quiktrip 500.

Kevin Harvick: +500

Looking at the last 10 races here in Atlanta, Denny Hamlin has led 282 laps.

Good job, Den.

Unfortunately, that’s only good enough for second place.

Kevin Harvick edged you out with 1061…

Almost there.

Denny is a good value pick, actually. People are sleeping on him and he appears to be at the peak of his career.

I don’t see how you can ignore Kevin Harvick here.

  • 8 top tens, 4 top fives, and 1 win in the last 10 races at Atlanta.

Kevin is first in the points standings on the season.

We can’t ignore Kevin Harvick in this spot.

Race Winner
Kevin Harvick
+500

Joey Logano: +900

Kevin Harvick may be first in the points standings but Joey Logano has 2 wins to his 1.

The driver of the #12 Penske Mustang has a very fast vehicle and would love to get his first-ever victory at Atlanta.

Most of his finishes don’t show it post-lockdown but Logano has been running and racing very well.

He has just had some really bad luck as of late.

He has a decent history here but this one is more of a gut call.

I wanted to delete this and just leave him off of there but then the superstitious side gets going.

Put maybe half a unit on Joey Logano and let’s hopefully cash after inspection.

Race Winner
Joey Logano
+900

Martin Truex Jr: +275

Martin Truex Jr has odds to win this race of (+800).

That is not a bad deal but I feel like it may be a bit of a trap.

Marty hasn’t been able to put it all together for a win this season but he loves the intermediate tracks and has raced Atlanta in particular incredibly well over the last 10 starts.

  • 7 top tens and 4 tops fives.

He doesn’t have any wins in that stretch and he only 82 combined laps.

It sounds like he hasn’t quite figured it out yet but is just as likely for a top 3 finish as anyone else.

His average finishing position of 8.4 is only bested by Kurt Busch over the last 10.

The betting odds are off here. You could chase the win but there is plenty of value in this play.

Top 3
Martin Truex Jr
+275
Kurt Busch
-110
Jimmie Johnson
-110

Ah, Kurt Busch…

I was just talking about you.

The Las Vegas native and the brother of Kyle is a man’s man.

He could still be very competitive if he were to be with an elite team.

Kurt is one of the best race car drivers in the world but he didn’t like his team telling him who his sponsors could be.

He said, screw it. I’m rich already. I’m going to do things my way from now one.

You have to respect that.

If his team stinks, then why pick him?

Well, he out-raced Jimmie Johnson in both Charlotte races, one at Darlington, Phoenix, Auto Club, and Daytona.

  • 7th, 7th, 6th, 5th, 3rd, 3rd.

Those are Kurt’s best finishes this year in 9 starts.

  • 12th, 11th, 8th, 7th, 5th, 3rd.

That’s Johnson’s.

Busch has just been able to finish better than Jimmie.

We know they are both past their prime but this is Johnson’s final season while Kurt has plenty more left in the petrol pouch.

Average finish here over the last 10 races:

  • Jimmie Johnson: 14.3
  • Kurt Busch: 6.9

We are getting pick’em odds so I will go with the numbers and they are all on the side of Kurt Busch.

Matchups
Kurt Busch
-110

In Conclusion

Atlanta is a fun race.

It isn’t as interesting as somewhere like Bristol or Darlington where you have to be all different kinds of technical not to mention patient just to stay out of the wall.

Atlanta is more what you see is what you get.

  • 1.5 mile oval.
  • Drive real fast and turn to the left sometimes.
  • Cars will be getting close to if not eclipsing the 200MPH mark.

As for our picks, Kurt Busch has been low key fast this year.

We know he has the moves but I like the boost his team has provided in 2020.

Joey Logano has a decent history at this track but excels at this track type. I like him as a value/gut play.

Marty at (+275) for a top 3 may have the most value of any other odds.

Finally, Kevin Harvick has led 5x as many laps in the last 10 Atlanta races than any other driver in Sunday’s field.

Get your bets in now directly from this article and enjoy the end race on Sunday evening if you have time.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.