NASCAR Cup Series Picks: Supermarket Heroes 500

We just raced a few hours ago.

Heck, I recorded the race and went to sleep early.

I had to watch the last 100 laps this morning over my coffee.

NASCAR’s Cup Series has been putting on 2 races/week for the past couple of weeks and Sunday will mark 5 Cup Series races in 15 days.

They were set to go on Wednesday night at Charlotte and go for 500 kilometers which is nearly half of the mileage from the Coca Cola 600.

Then, the rains came and pushed us back until Thursday night. There was another delay shortly after the start but we finally got going.

We had an outstanding start to the 2020 NASCAR betting season but these past few weeks haven’t been very pretty.

We won the first two races of the year and picked Kevin Harvick to win the initial race back after the long quarantine break.

That gave us 3 winning picks over the first 5 races.

We chose 14 drivers total in that time so if we wagered 1400.00 bucks, we profited 2400.00.

Over the last 3 races, though, we haven’t hit a winner or a top 3 driver.

We are 2-1 on matchup bets but those aren’t big wins.

  • Last night, we had Alex Bowman who won the second stage but couldn’t hold off the higher horse powered Harvick and then spun out on his own trying to keep pace.
  • We had William Byron to snag a top 3 finish but he was hit by Cory LaJoie on pit road and that was enough damage to end his competitive day.
  • Tyler Reddick came through for us by out-racing Aric Almirola til the end.

That was much needed because our other pick to win, Martin Truex Jr, continues to struggle in 2020.

We also took a shot at another rookie, Christopher Bell, to finish inside the top 3 drivers for a payout of over 20 to 1.

He was hanging around the top ten late in the race so I’m not mad about that one.

The Bowman pick wasn’t bad, I guess, but I should have known to pick Chase Elliott when I saw his name at the top of the betting board. It is never there.

He was in position very late to win each of the previous two races and, he was not to be denied last night in Charlotte.

It has been a rough 10 days betting wise for us but we are still ahead for the year.

Let’s build on that with a victory at Bristol, Virginia on Sunday.

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for us.

Let’s get to our predictions for the Supermarket Heroes 500!

Erik Jones: +2200

Why do I keep picking this guy?

Man, we can’t deny the value here.

In just 6 starts, Erik has two top 5 finishes at Bristol Motor Speedway.

He has had a good car over the past few weeks even though he doesn’t have the best finishes to show for it.

Still, though, 11th, 5th, and 8th in 3 of the 4 races since we returned from lockdown are pretty solid.

Bristol is a tricky track, though.

To put his 2 top fives in 6 starts into perspective, listen to this.

  • Martin Truex Jr also has 2 top five finishes at Bristol…in 28 starts
  • Ryan Newman has 2 top fives in 36 starts here
  • Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman combine for 2 top fives over 17 races

It’s going to be hard to beat the Chase Elliotts and Kevin Harvicks of the NASCAR world right now but Erik has shown over the past year or so that he can win Cup Series races.

I think he has exceptional value at 22 to 1.

My Pick
ERIK JONES
+2200

Chase Elliott: +900

Recency bias?

What’s that?

Chase Elliott is just one bad call by his crew chief and one foot-long misjudgment by Kyle Busch from having won 3 races in a row!

I tell ya, man.

I watched every lap of the race from Charlotte Thursday night and I didn’t think anyone was going to catch Kevin Harvick.

We had taken Alex Bowman who is a Hendrick Motorsports guy and we know they have had the fastest cars since the return from the lockdown.

Kevin passed him like he was standing still.

I thought no way anybody is gonna catch Harvick.

I immediately started thinking about all of the reasons I should have picked Harvick.

Then, I thought: Chase can catch him.

He’s the only one.

Welp, he did it and he made it look easy.

The end of the race was boring and beautiful for the #9 car.

Much like Erik Jones, Chase Elliott doesn’t have that much experience at Bristol but he has made the most of it.

  • 8 starts and 4 top tens including 3 top fives.
  • No trips to the winner’s circle, though…yet.

There is so much young talent in NASCAR right now!

If you’re a fan, you know!

The old dogs still have the best pit crews, though.

We had Christopher Bell to sneak into the top three for a 20 to 1 payout. He could definitely make his way into the top 5 or so but when pit time came, rookies were shuffled to the back and here came experience zipping out of pit road ahead.

While Chase Elliott is young, though, make no mistake about it.

He is the star of his team.

William Byron can be very good. Alex Bowman has shown even more promise.

Chase is the man, though, and not just because of his dad.

I loved the look on his face when he first took his helmet off last night to give his post-win interview.

He ended up putting on his happy face after a few seconds just to be kind but you could tell this win wasn’t enough to make him forget about the two that had just got away.

The kid is hungry and I think we are getting solid value with his betting odds here.

My Pick
CHASE ELLIOTT
+900

In Conclusion

Those are your guys!

Both are young drivers with outstanding, albeit limited, resumes at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Chase, we already know, has a lightning fast race car.

His confidence is high.

His team is performing great.

I really think we could see a changing of the guard in 2020.

Kevin Harvick only has a couple more good years in him and Kyle Busch might not be too far behind him.

I think in 3 years, Chase Elliott, Erik Jones, Alex Bowman, and Ryan Blaney will be 4 of the very best NASCAR drivers in the world.

So far, Elliott has proven to be the most successful.

His ceiling could be higher than the rest also because we know for a fact that he has it in his blood.

This is the first short track of the season and they are going to use the rules package from back in 2018.

Kyle Busch is, of course, a monster here but has been rather inconsistent with two finishes outside of the top 25 in the 4 Cup Series events since NASCAR has returned.

I give somebody like Chase Elliott right now a very similar chance and he has double the betting odds.

There will be no practice and no qualifying for this one and with this being the first short track of the year as well, betting will be difficult.

That’s why I just want to go with 2 for your spread today and both of these plays are loaded with value.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.