Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 7 Pick – NBA May 29, 2022

The Eastern Conference Finals is down to a meeting between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat at FTX Arena. The Heat fended off elimination with a 111-103 win at the TD Garden in Game 6.

Jimmy Butler went off for 47 points to carry the Heat back home for a Game 7. He also put in 9 rebounds and 8 assists to will the Heat to a final game back home. Did the Heat empty the tank and do they have anything left now, though?

There is no surprise in the least that this series is going to a Game 7. I feel that most people had this series going seven games. There isn’t a lot of talent separating the Celtics and Heat.

The Celtics are more well-rounded, but Butler and the playoff experience of Kyle Lowry close the gap considerably. Lowry is not a player I’d want to be against in a Game 7 at home.

I also don’t want to be against Jayson Tatum, who could very easily carry the Celtics. If you’re asking for me a pick on the side, I’m leaning toward the Celtics, but it will be close.

The NBA Playoffs have been criticized for being non-stop blowouts, but this should have a different feel on Sunday night. It’s likely going to be a physical game that comes down to the 4th quarter.

The NBA has to be keeping their fingers crossed that this isn’t another blowout and viewers are out by the final quarter.

I’m looking at the total instead of going with the spread. It’s likely a shot here or there late that decides this one. Head below for our free Celtics vs. Heat Game 7 pick on May 29, 2022.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 7 Live Betting Odds:

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Boston Celtics -3 (-110) -150 Over 198 (-110)
Miami Heat +3 (-110) +130 Under 198 (-110)
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Team Data Boston Celtics Miami Heat
Overall Record 62-37 64-35
ATS Record 55-42-2 56-42-1
Away/Home Record 29-20 36-14
ATS Away/Home 32-16-1 27-23-0
Points Per Game 111 109.1
Points Against Per Game 103.9 104.7
Field Goal % 46.5 43.4
Three Point % 35.8 33.6

Celtics vs. Heat Game 7 Prediction:

After two wide-open games that saw plenty of points, this series has slowed down and resembles something that you’d expect from these teams. The Celtics and Heat primarily like to win games with their defense.

They typically don’t care for running up and down the floor to score as quickly as possible.

Picking their spots with high efficient shot selections is their game. Both defenses have turned up the intensity after a 127-102 win for the Celtics in Game 2.

In Game 4 and Game 5, the game slowed right down with a 102-82 and 93-80 final, both in favor of the Celtics.

If you’re leaning towards the Celtics, you probably like the UNDER in Game 7 in Miami. While the Heat can play defense as well, there isn’t a team in the NBA better defensively than the Celtics.

Boston is first in the NBA with 104.5 points against per game. They can put the lid on offenses and not allow them to get comfortable.

The Celtics are also first in the league, with teams shooting just 43.4% and 33.9% from three. They force teams to avoid the perimeter and look to the inside.

Butler bullied his way to 47 points against the Celtics’ tight defense. Expect the Celtics to clean things up and get more aggressive versus Butler.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 7 Betting Trends:


  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games as a betting favorite on the road
  • 6-0 ATS in thier previous six games after a loss
  • 20-6-1 ATS in their previous 27 games versus a team with a winning record at home
  • UNDER is 6-2 in their previous eight games as a betting favorite
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games after failing to cover the spread


  • 9-3 ATS in their previous 12 games at home
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games at home versus a team with a winning record
  • 3-7 ATS in their previous ten games as an underdog
  • UNDER is 7-3 in their previous ten games after a loss
  • UNDER is 7-3 in their previous ten games as an underdog
  • UNDER is 7-3 in their previous ten games at home

The Heat don’t have the defensive numbers as the Celtics, but still awfully impressive and rate as one of the best in the league. Miami has allowed 105.4 points per game and a 44.7% field goal percentage.

The Heat are just about as good as Celtics on the perimeter. They have held teams to a 33.9% field goal percentage for the second-best mark in the NBA.

Miami doesn’t allow many second-chance points as well. They’re second in the league in defensive rebounding. Look for the defensive efforts from both teams to be maximized in Game 7.

I’m looking at a grind fest in Game 7 at the FTX Arena in Miami. Game 7 matchups this deep in the playoffs are typically physical matchups. I’m going with the UNDER in a low-scoring final.


Celtics vs. Heat Pick
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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