I got a break from the NBA picks game on Monday, as no Eastern Conference contests were on the schedule. Tuesday gets me back to work, as the Bucks and Celtics clash in Boston at the TD Garden and the Heat and 76ers face off for a potential elimination game.
I come in pretty hot, as I correctly nailed each of my last two picks and have produced winners in four of my last five tries. I’ll aim to do that again tonight as I look for a winning bet in the Bucks vs. Celtics game.
You can toss some cash on the 76ers game if you’d like, but it just feels like a weird game that I want no business in. Miami has a lot of fight, but if I had to make a call I’d take the Over and back Philly to cover at home.
I have more interest in the tighter game in Boston, as the Celtics and Bucks are tied at 2-2 in this series and it really feels like it could go either way at this point. Vegas seems to agree, as the top NBA betting sites are calling it fairly close to the chest and giving the home town Celtics the slightest of nods.
Let’s take a closer look at this game and see what the best bet might be:
Milwaukee Bucks (+3.5, -110) @ Boston Celtics (-3.5, -110) Total: 205 (-105/-115)
In such tight games, pretty much everything is in play. That goes for the Moneylines, too, as the Bucks aren’t bad underdogs at +150 at Bovada and Boston returns reasonable value at -170 as well.
With that being said, I find myself leaning toward a spread play here. Game four was an intense battle and if you can recall, these two sides battled to overtime in game one. I doubt either side is going to dish out a blowout, so it comes down to being on the right side of this spread.
The Celtics don’t have Kyrie Irving, but they’re still a balanced offensive team that has the tools to defend. They also were at their best all season at home and went up 2-0 in this series at the TD Garden.
The Bucks obviously showed life by tying things back up with two wins on their home floor, but Milwaukee was not an easy team to back on the road this year. Something was missing when they left Mil-town, as the Bucks were just 19-22 on the road overall and just 12-17-1 against the spread as road dogs.
Needless to say, it’s tough to trust the Bucks as they take it to the road again for a crucial game five.
Game five winners are notorious for moving on to win playoff series, while banking on Milwaukee ripping off a third straight win feels like a bit of a reach.
I have little doubt that Giannis Antetokounmpo will show up in such a huge game, but Milwaukee’s supporting cast left a lot to be desired on the road to get this series started.
Jabari Parker showed life at home, but was non-existent through the first two games. The same was the case for much of the Bucks role players off the bench and if they happens again, Milwaukee is undoubtedly in some trouble.
The playoffs tend to be about momentum and while the Bucks may have it, the Celtics now get an amazing opportunity to take it back on their home floor.
It’s also usually said that the playoffs don’t officially start until someone steals a road game and that has yet to happen in this series. The Bucks don’t have a bad price, but Boston has been really tough at home all year and I’m not about to bet they drop a third straight game.
All that aside, I also can’t see the Bucks just turning up lame in this spot. Milwaukee has more star talent on hand, they’re longer and they’re more athletic. Assuming this huge game isn’t too big for them, I think they’re equipped to hang tight until the end.
Due to the intensity of game four and just how much is on the line here, I feel inclined to assume this is going to be a pretty tight game. I like the Celtics to get the win, but they’re up to -170 at some sites and that’s not enough value for me. I’ll bank on this game staying close and take the Bucks at +3.5 at Bovada.