Bucks vs. Warriors Pick – March 18th

The Warriors are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten games, but they looked excellent in their last home outing and are hosting a team on the back-end of a back-to-back in the Milwaukee Bucks.  Will that be enough to get the Dubs the win and cover?  

We got another NBA winner last night, and it almost didn’t seem fair.  All we did was stick out hands out after waiting in a the surprisingly short line labeled “free money here.”  The Miami Heat were only five point favorites at home, despite enjoying a 22-5 record over the past two months and hosting a team with a 30% road winning percentage.  Strange line.  Maybe March Madness distracted the betting public?  I’m not sure what happened, but that was an odd line and I’m glad it worked out, because even if we LOST that game, there’d be no apologies on my end.  That was as obvious an NBA play as we’ve out in all season.

There’s nothing quite so obvious on tonight’s slate, but there are a few good games worth looking at, including tonight’s marquee ABC matchup between the Cavs and Clippers and the Rockets trying to avoid losses on back-to-back nights at the home-tough Denver Nuggets.

Let’s see if we can notch a sixth NBA winner in seven results (we have a push hanging in there as well).

Today’s NBA Pick:

Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors -11

The Warriors are one more odd result away from going in my temporary “penalty box.”  Nothing as extreme as my near-season long Duke ban, but certainly a few weeks temporary restraining order while we try to figure out exactly what is going on.  But for now, I am willing to let it ride based on two important things:  First, the Bucks are on the back-end of a road back-to-back after a feisty scrap (literally) in Los Angeles last night against the Lakers.  Secondly, Golden State looked like themselves again a few nights ago dispatching Orlando in more typical Warriors fashion.

The other reasons are more obvious.  Golden State is really good.  Milwaukee is not.  Golden State is at home.  Milwaukee is not.  Golden State is rested.  Milwaukee is not.  You get the point.

Milwaukee has played well lately, winning seven of eight to get back into the playoff picture in the East.  But winning at Golden State is a different animal.  Milwaukee is 9-15 ATS as a road underdog this season and just 8-16 SU.  Golden State is 28-4 SU and a decent 17-15 ATS considering how largely they are generally favored.

I’ll take the rest factor being the biggest difference in helping the Warriors run away and hide a bit in tonight’s contest.

Today’s Pick:  Golden State Warriors -11