So it wasn’t great news for Steph and the Warriors yesterday, but it wasn’t the end either; there is still plenty of hope that his “re-evaluation” in two weeks will green light his return and the Warriors can get back to the business of completing the greatest season in NBA history. But in the meantime, Vegas has reacted. The Spurs are now the favorite to win the NBA Title as the Warriors odds dropped from minus-money all the way up to 2/1. Obviously, if Steph CAN’T return, it is probably a little too slim a value. But assuming the Warriors aren’t playing coy, and Steph CAN return in two weeks, it feels like a decent value. Let me explain my thinking:
The Warriors are STILL nine point favorites tonight at home over Houston, without Steph. Their upcoming opponent might be a while in the making – the Blazers smoked the Clippers last night to knot their series at two games apiece and it looks like this one could go the distance given the manner in which Portland responded in Game Four especially. Would you pick the Blazers over Golden State without Steph? I’m not sure I would, especially with how Portland has played on the road. And do the Clippers FEEL as dangerous as they would have, now that Chris Paul broke his hand?? If they were such a dire threat to upend the Warriors in a quick series before they get Steph back, they’d be dispatching Portland more ably, and now with CP3 likely to miss the rest of the Playoffs, I’d take the Warriors in that series as well. Assuming the Warriors CAN get past either LAC or Portland sans Steph, that gives the Dubs three full weeks to rest Steph for San Antonio/OKC.
My point is – still doable. Making 2/1 a decent value wager.
We have a couple BIG games tonight, with an odd 6pm start time in Toronto in a tied 2-2- series with Indiana tipping off the action. Let’s see if we can build on last night’s winner and notch another winner.
MUST SEE: Bovada.lv has a High Credit Card Acceptance Rate for United States Sports Bettors!
Troubles depositing? Bovada.lv has a variety of great deposit options plus are awarding new depositors $100 in FREE Money Bonuses! *check local laws Click here for full details...
Today’s Free Pick:
Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks -7 (Total: 201)
Two of the games in this series have been settled by less than seven points and two have been by larger margins, but the most recent nine-point Celtic win came in overtime. The point is, this series has been pretty tight. The advantage seemed to shift to Atlanta once Avery Bradley went down with an injury, but in truth, the momentum seems to have shifted more with the home court advantage as opposed to any personnel edges. So the advantage should shift back to Atlanta tonight, but is it worth laying seven points?
The Boston adjustment of Jerebko and Turner into the starting lineup seems to have worked. Jerebko has helped create space for Isaiah Thomas to operate and Boston’s offensive efficiency has greatly improved, shooting over 44% in their last two games after a pair of brick-fests in Atlanta. Thomas has been unstoppable in the last two games dropping 70 points and carrying his team back to even in the series.
Boston is 0-4 in their four games in Boston this season, so I am not willing to flirt with the moneyline tonight, but I do like getting seven points in what appears to be a pretty evenly matched series. I like another tense game tonight, especially with the added stakes of Game Five.