Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat NBA Pick – Game 1

The NBA is set up with another great night of playoff action as the Conference Finals get underway. The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will open up the third round as they meet on Tuesday night. These two teams have been strong in the postseason and will look for a big win to open this series. This game will tip off at around 8:30 PM Eastern time on ESPN.

Boston has earned a record of 8-3 throughout the playoffs as the second seed in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics knocked off the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks to reach the Conference Finals. Boston will look to step up early in this one as well. I expect the Celtics to come out fast on the road on Tuesday night.

The Heat have put up a record of 8-3 so far this postseason after earning the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami eliminated the Atlanta Hawks and Philadelphia 76ers to reach the Conference Finals. The Heat are coming off a little extra break and will look to use it to their advantage. Miami will look for a fast start at home in this one.

These two teams have been strong throughout this postseason and will look for a big win in Game 1. The Celtics are coming off a tough seven game series against the Bucks and will look to come out fast in this series. Miami had a few extra days off after knocking off the 76ers in six games. If either team can come out quickly in this one, it could be enough for the win.

Game Overview

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Teams Spread Money Line Total
Boston Celtics +1 ½ (-105) +105 Over 214 (-110)
Miami Heat -1 ½ (-115) -125 Under 214 (-110)

 

Team Data Boston Celtics Miami Heat
Playoff Record 8-3 8-3
Away/ Home Playoff Record 4-1 6-0
Playoff PPG 108.5 107.1
Playoff PPG Away/ Home 110.0 112.0
Playoff PAPG 101.8 97.5
Playoff PAPG Away/ Home 104.2 95.0

Betting Trends

Boston Celtics

  • 51-38 ATS this season
  • 17-8 ATS as an underdog
  • 29-15 ATS in road games
  • 5-1 ATS on Tuesday nights
  • 7-3 ATS in Playoffs
  • 20-10 ATS after allowing 100 points or less
  • 16-17 ATS after a win by 10 or more points
  • 31-16 ATS against team with a winning record

Miami Heat

  • 53-38 ATS this season
  • 35-32 ATS as a favorite
  • 26-10 ATS in home games
  • 5-6 ATS on Tuesday nights
  • 4-0 ATS when playing on three or more days rest
  • 7-4 ATS in Playoffs
  • 22-11 ATS after allowing 100 points or less
  • 11-7 ATS after scoring 100 or more points
  • 32-22 ATS against team with a winning record

These two teams met up three times in the regular season. Jaylen Brown put up 17 points in the first game as Boston earned a 95-78 defensive battle. Brown dropped 29 points, while Jayson Tatum added 20 points and 12 rebounds in the second meeting to lead the Celtics to a 122-92 win. Jimmy Butler scored 24 points and Kyle Lowry finished with 23 points as the Heat won the third game 106-98.

Field Goal Shooting

The Celtics have been solid shooting the ball in the playoffs. Boston has made 45.4 percent of their shots from the field, which is 3rd in the field of 4. The Celtics have shot 37 percent from deep, which is also 3rd in the postseason. Boston has drained 80.5 percent of their shots from the charity stripe, which is 1st in the playoffs.

Miami has also been solid shooting throughout the postseason. The Heat have been shooting 46.4 percent from the field, which is 2nd in the remaining field. Miami has made 32.1 percent of their shots from behind the arc, which is 4th in the playoffs. The Heat have sunk 80.1 percent of their shots from the free throw line, which is 2nd in the postseason.

Boston has been better shooting the ball at the free throw line and behind the arc, while Miami has the better overall field goal percentage. The Celtics will look to shoot well from deep early in this one, while the Heat will look to step up from the field. Both teams have been strong on defense as well and will look to tighten up early in Game 1.

Top Performers

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been the leaders for Boston in the playoffs. Tatum has averaged 28.3 points and 6.1 assists per game. Brown is averaging 22.2 points per game. Marcus Smart has averaged 15 points, while Al Horford is averaging 13 points and 9.4 rebounds per game. Grant Williams rounds out the lineup, averaging 11 points per game.

Jimmy Butler has been great for the Heat throughout the postseason. Butler is averaging 28.7 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. Bam Adebayo has averaged 14.6 points and 7.7 rebounds. Tyler Herro is averaging 13.8 points off the bench, while Max Strus has averaged 12.5 points per game. Victor Oladipo has averaged 11.4 points to round out the lineup.

These two teams have been led by their stars in the postseason. Tatum and Butler will meet in an anticipated matchup as they look to lead their team. Both teams have had some players step up in the playoffs as well and will look for it to continue. If either team can have their stars come out fast though, it could be enough for the win.

Pick Overview

These two teams have been strong in the postseason and will look to start out this series strong. Miami has been the better team overall this season, but Boston has remained red hot in the playoffs. The Celtics have the better one-two punch and I think they will come out fast in Game 1. If Boston can shoot well from behind the arc, I think they can pull off the upset on the road.

Bovada has the Heat listed as a -1 ½ against the spread in this one. This gives a solid edge to Miami at home in this game. I agree with this line, but I like the value on Boston with the points. The Celtics are coming off a huge win on Sunday and I think they will carry momentum into this one. As slight underdogs, I like the value on the Celtics with the points.

The Bet
Boston Celtics +1.5
-105
Andruw Burling / Author

Andruw Burling has been writing sports picks since 2017, covering mainly NHL and NBA content, but doing work in other sports as well. Andruw grew up in Las Vegas and has been around sports since a young age. He grew up a huge NHL and NBA fan and continues to use that knowledge in his content today.

  1. I think the heat take this moneyline,,,,,,,Celtics will still have Hangover from prior series.

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