Clippers vs. Warriors Pick NBA – November 4th

We notched a winner late last night with the Grizzlies and Kings staying UNDER 198 with a little room to spare. It wasn’t really a stunning development considering Boogie Cousins, the heart of the Kings offense, was sidelined. Sacramento still appears poised to make some gains this season and so far the Rondo/Cousins/Karl experiment is working well, but even with a healthy DeMarcus Cousins making the playoffs is a tall task. Without him? Completely impossible.  Get healthy soon Boogie, the league is a more interesting place with you skulking in the paint (and perimeter).

Meanwhile Kobe’s self-imposed ‘mental day off’ or whatever yesterday was didn’t seem to do the trick for the abysmal Lakers. The young guns took center stage and promptly lost by double digits at home to the pretty-lousy Nuggets. It’s going to be a long, long, long season in LaLa Land, and one that looks like it could very well end up resulting in another prime chance at the first overall pick in the draft…

I’ve alternated wins and losses in perfect succession en route to an early 5-4 ATS mark in the NBA season. Let’s see if we can shed that trend and notch a second consecutive winner to get to 60% on the young year.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors -8

Bet against the Warriors at your own peril. Through four games, the defending champs are winning by an average margin of 26 points per game and are a perfect 4-0 ATS.  The reigning MVP, Steph Curry, is scoring a point every 47 seconds he is on the floor and doing so in the most efficient manner the planet has ever seen. So, laying eight against a 4-0 and also top-tier Clippers team? Not as daunting as it should seem.

This is my favorite rivalry in the current NBA. I know, I know, it doesn’t meet many people’s traditional definition of ‘rivalry’ since they don’t have playoff history against each other, no traditional long-standing cause for enmity. But the animosity is REAL between these two and it got amplified this off-season by slightly exaggerated comments from Doc Rivers. Both teams are loaded with big name talent, they have geographical proximity, and did I mention they FLAT OUT DON’T LIKE EACH OTHER. So however you want to label this game, make sure you ENJOY it. It’s going to be fun.

But I think most of the fun will be had by the Warriors. They are nearly unbeatable on their home floor (39-2 last season) and their point differential, despite being one of the ten best seasons in NBA history, is UNDERRATED because of how often they let 25 point wins become 16-17 point wins with their starters not even cracking 30 minutes apiece.

If they can pour it on tonight, they will. There will be no letting off the gas pedal and I don’t think the Clippers can score enough to keep up. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a very good game for a while, maybe even into the fourth quarter. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Dubs went up double digits in the first quarter and keep squeezing.

The only way I WOULD be surprised is if the Clippers were able to get the win on the road.

Until I get a compelling reason to jump ship, I am all in with the Warriors.   If they do win tonight and cover with ease, the reason to jump ship could very well wind up being that Vegas has NO IDEA what to do with this team moving forward and you’ll start see some lines that look like Duke is hosting a D2 school in November. But until the lines get simply unreasonable (I’m predicting -18 to -21 against the Nuggets Friday night), I’ll stick with Steph and Co.

Free Pick: Golden State Warriors -8

Chris Scheeren / Author