Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Pick – NBA October 29, 2021

The Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets meet with both teams potentially short-handed at Ball Arena. Kristaps Porzingis has been ruled OUT for the Mavericks, while Nikola Jokic is questionable with a knee injury.

Jokic has been in a lot of pain after going down against the Utah Jazz in a 122-110 loss. The good news is that there hasn’t been any structural damage, so this isn’t going to be a long-term injury. If Jokic is feeling fine to play he will go in this one.

However, it was only yesterday that Jokic didn’t practice and was indicating he was in plenty of discomfort. In other words, if Jokic doesn’t play, don’t be surprised. It’d probably be in his best interest to take this one off if he isn’t feeling right.

There isn’t any reason for him to start in a game this early in the season if he isn’t feeling well. Insult to injury in that game versus the Jazz was that they didn’t get a win out of the deal. They left with an injured Jokic and no win.

The Nuggets are going into Friday night with a record of 2-2. After beating the San Antonio Spurs, 102-96, the Nuggets have lost back-to-back outings against the Cavaliers, 99-87, and Jazz. The Cavaliers might be a better team than they’re getting credit for, so it might not look like such a bad loss later in the year.

The Mavericks are in Denver following a 104-99 win over the Spurs last night. They’re on a back-to-back, and they are expected to be without Porzingis again. He failed to play last night with a back injury. And while Porzingis receives his fair share of criticism, the Mavs missed his presence.

In any event, the Mavericks were able to win with a tight defense that didn’t allow the Spurs to operate freely. It would be nice help if Jokic isn’t starting. That’s one big body that they wouldn’t have to be concerned with. Head below for our free Mavericks vs. Nuggets pick on October 29, 2021.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Live Odds and Betting History:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Dallas Mavericks +2 (-108) +112 Over 215.5 (-112)
Denver Nuggets -2 (-112) -132 Under 215.5 (-108)
Team Data Dallas Mavericks Denver Nuggets
Overall Record 3-1 2-2
ATS Record 1-3-0 1-3-0
Away/Home Record 1-1 1-1
ATS Away/Home 1-1-0 0-2-0
Points Per Game 102.5 102.3
Points Against Per Game 103.3 103.8
Field Goal % 41.8 48.8
Three Point % 32.9 33.3

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction:

The Nuggets have a high shooting percentage. Just looking at their success rate from the field and it’s pretty impressive. However, keep in mind that this is largely due to Nikola Jokic.

Jokic is shooting an incredible 67.6% from the field. No one has been able to defend his size. However, take Jokic off the court and they aren’t a team shooting 48.4% from the field. Without him playing, the Nuggets are the best shooting team in the NBA.

Once Jokic left the game against the Jazz, the Nuggets’ offense wasn’t quite as crisp. They scored 64 points in the first-half, with 31 points in the 1st quarter and 33 points in the 2nd quarter. However, Denver scored just 46 points in the second-half without Jokic.

Especially if he can’t play, the Mavericks should be able to get to the Denver offense in this one. Jamal Murray of course isn’t active, so he isn’t on the floor to be the focal point of the offense. And despite the shooting percentage, the Nuggets are only 25th in the league with 102.3 points per game.

The Mavs have been underrated defensively as well. Dallas is eighth in the NBA with 103.3 points against per game. The same could be said for the Mavericks’ offense without Porzingis, though. They didn’t run to their full potential with Porzingis on the sidelines.


Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Trends:

Mavericks

  • UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four games
  • UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four games after allowing 100 points
  • UNDER is 4-0 in their previous four games games after a win
  • 5-2 ATS in their previous seven games as an underdog on the road
  • 4-1 ATS in their previous five games on a back-to-back

Nuggets

  • UNDER is 5-2 in their previous seven games
  • UNDER is 5-1 in their previous six games on a Friday
  • UNDER is 4-1 in their previous five games after scoring 100 points or more
  • 1-7 ATS in their previous eight games

The Nuggets have been holding up well defensively, too. They’ve allowed 103.8 points per game for tenth in the NBA. Even with Porzingis healthy, the Mavs haven’t been firing on all cylinders offensively.

Dallas is 24th in the NBA with 102.5 points scored per game. They’re 28th in the league with a field goal percentage of 41.8% and 32.9% from deep. Both of these teams have been amongst the worst from the charity stripe as well.

The Nuggets are 29th with a disappointing free throw percentage of 64.2%. That has to change for the Nuggets. They have to take advantage of what should be free points. The Mavericks have been better, but not up to par, as they’re shooting 68.1% for 28th.

I would side towards the UNDER in this matchup. We’re probably going to see a defensive battle, with a final score of 106-101 or 108-103.

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Mavericks vs. Nuggets Pick
UNDER 215.5