Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat Pick – NBA May 4, 2021

The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat are scheduled for tip-off at 8:00 p.m. EST at the AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami. That’s not to be confused with the American Airlines Center in Dallas. Dallas heads into South Beach with a record of 36-28 for sixth in the NBA. They are a half game ahead of the Portland Trail Blazers, and a half game back of the Los Angeles Lakers for fifth. Right now it’s all about avoiding the play-in tournament for the Mavericks. That’s what they’re playing for at the moment, so there is some motivation not to go through the motions to finish off the regular season.

When it comes to the postseason, I just don’t have much faith in the Mavericks putting a dent in things. They are far too Jekyll and Hyde for my liking. The Mavericks have a roster with the talent to get hot, but sustaining it has been difficult for them. Luke Doncic is a terrific talent, but everyone else, including Kristaps Porzingis, have a tendency to go hot and cold. Every team can be like that, but for the Mavericks, their hot runs don’t happen often enough. It’s going to be hard for them to get over the hump under their current up and down form.

The Mavericks have won six of their last eight games, so there are no complaints from their fans at the moment. Prior to this recent run, the Mavericks went 2-5 in seven games. This was after a five-game winning streak, so there has been a lot of start and stopping for the Mavericks. We can go back weeks and it’s been the same for the Mavs. They are coming off a 111-99 loss against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday in Dallas. Doncic had a big game with 30 points, but he didn’t get much help from elsewhere.

Porzingis is listed as doubtful on the injury report with a knee injury. The Mavericks could play him when he’s ready to return for a late push to avoid the play-in tournament, or save his body for the postseason. He had a bad game against the Detroit Pistons on April 29, as he scored 11 points and just 1 rebound. If he’s going to bring that effort, then the Mavs are better off with Porzingis sitting the rest of the regular season out.

The Mavericks take on a Heat team tonight that is playing well on a three-game winning streak. They’re back home after dispatching the Cleveland Cavaliers, 124-107, and Charlotte Hornets, 121-111. The Heat would be going to the playoffs as the No. 6 seed if the playoffs started today. Like the Mavericks, the Heat are trying to avoid the play-in game. They go into tonight with a record of 35-30. Head below for our free Mavericks vs. Heat pick on May 4, 2021.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat NBA Betting Odds:


  • Mavericks +3 (-110)
  • Heat -3 (-110)

  • Mavericks +130
  • Heat -150

  • Over 215.5 (-105)
  • Under 215.5 (-115)


Mavericks vs. Heat Prediction:

The Mavericks need Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis to come together at the perfect moment and catch fire. There is no other big secret regarding the Mavericks finding success in the playoffs. The rest of the roster is not dependable enough for anyone other than Doncic and Porzingis carrying the load.

At least from the field offensively, the Mavericks haven’t been consistent. I have been impressed with the defensive pressure they’ve been able to generate, as they’ve held the opposition to 110 points per game for ninth in the league. Teams are shooting 46% from the field against the Mavericks.

The Heat have largely been stuck in mud offensively this season, but there has been plenty to like recently. They’ve scored at least 116 points in their last three games, with 124 points against the Cavaliers and 121 against the Hornets. That is more than enough offensive production for the Heat to go deep in the playoffs.

Their defense is the catalyst, so they don’t need to light up the floor against most teams in the league if their defense can continue to play strong in the postseason. Miami is fourth in the NBA with 107.3 points against per game. The Mavericks must be considerably better than they were against the Kings, a team with a much poorer defense.

In their most recent meeting, it was the Mavericks that beat the Heat at their own game. They grinded out a 93-83 win against the Heat in Dallas in early January. However, the Heat have been playing better basketball since then, which was a rough stretch for them earlier in the season. Despite missing the cover in that game, the Heat are 5-1-1 against the Mavs in their last seven meetings. The Mavs have gone 0-4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Miami as well. I like a 113-106 type of win for the Heat at home tonight.


Our Bet
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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