Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs Pick – NBA December 11, 2021

The Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs meet at the AT&T Center on Saturday night for what could be one of the more entertaining games. It doesn’t look like the best game on paper, but it should shape up to be a competitive matchup.

This is a rematch from Thursday night, which was at the AT&T Center as well. These back-to-back games in the same place aren’t common, but certainly something since the pandemic.

The Spurs won the first one with an impressive 123-111 win behind solid work from Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Lonnie Walker off the bench. All three scored at least 20 points, with White leading the Spurs with 23.

Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic did what they could to keep the game within reach, but they needed some help, especially defensively. The Nuggets had to tighten up on defense, with the Spurs making it look too easy.

Having said that, Murray and White are two of the more underrated guard combos you can find in the NBA. If you sleep on them, they’re going to make a defense work. Murray goes into tonight with 18.9 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game.

It’s been a disappointing season for the Spurs, but they’ve been finding their bearings recently. They are winners in five of their last seven attempts, which includes a 112-107 win over the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors were on a back-to-back after a big win the night before, but nevertheless, it was a big win for the Spurs on the road. They didn’t look so great in a 121-109 loss to the Knicks on Tuesday, but responded well.

Denver has been more disappointing than the Spurs in my book. The Spurs might be 9-15, but there weren’t high expectations for them this year. The Nuggets, though, are expected to be better than 12-13 at this point. Jokic has missed some games this season, but no excuses. He’s still played 20 of 25 games.

Head below for our free Nuggets vs. Spurs pick on December 11, 2021.

Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Odds and Team Statistics:

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Denver Nuggets -1 (-105) -110 Over 218.5 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs +1 (-115) -110 Under 218.5 (-110)
Team Data Denver Nuggets San Antonio Spurs
Overall Record 12-13 9-15
ATS Record 10-15-0 14-10-0
Away/Home Record 5-9 5-7
ATS Away/Home 5-9-0 7-5-0
Points Per Game 104.7 108.3
Points Against Per Game 105.2 108.4
Field Goal % 46.2 46.7
Three Point % 34.0 35.2

Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction:

The Spurs have looked much better lately. The offense is flowing and looking much easier than earlier in the season. When Dejounte Murray and Derrick White are in form, they can be a tough squad to stop.

In their last six outings, the Spurs have scored an average of 113 points per game. Their field goal percentage is up to 46.7 in the league for fifth in the NBA.

If they could hit some more free throws, the Spurs would have one of the highest-scoring offenses. As far as the Denver defense is concerned, I haven’t been particularly impressed with this team.

They are 26th with teams shooting 46.9% on them from the field. That can’t happen for a team that prides itself on defense.

The offense is shooting at an effective clip at 46.2% for top-10 in the league, but it’s translated to just 104.2 points per game. The Spurs don’t present much resistance, though.

Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs Betting Trends:


  • 3-9 ATS in their previous 12 games
  • 3-8 ATS in their previous 11 games on the road
  • OVER is 9-1 in their previous ten games
  • OVER is 7-0 in their previous seven games after failing to cover the spread
  • OVER is 8-1 in their previous nine games on the road


  • 6-1 ATS in their previous seven games
  • 5-1 ATS in their previous six games as an underdog
  • 4-0 ATS in their previous four games on one-day rest
  • OVER is 10-2 in their previous 12 games as an underdog at the AT&T Center
  • OVER is 6-0 in their previous six games versus the Nuggets at the AT&T Center

Gregg Popovich likes defense, but he isn’t getting the best effort from this roster. The Spurs are 19th with 108.4 points allowed per game.

Teams have shot well with a 45.7% field goal percentage, and 35.6% from the three-point stripe versus the Nuggets this season. Their perimeter defense from beyond the arc is 22nd in the NBA.

The OVER has been on fire in Denver games over the last few weeks. If you blindly bet the OVER in their last ten outings and nothing else, you’d be going into tonight at 9-1.

They’re either scoring or giving up points on the defensive end. I don’t know if we see another 234 points this evening, though a 114-110 or 116-108 game still puts this one OVER at 218.5.


Nuggets vs. Spurs Pick
OVER 218.5
Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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