Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks – NBA April 21

8:30 p.m. ET – Detroit at Dallas (-10.5) O/U: 217

The 18-40 Pistons travel to the American Airlines Center to take on the 30-26 Mavericks on Wednesday night. Detroit has won two of its last three games, including a 109-105 win over the Cavaliers on Monday. Dallas has lost the first two games of this homestand, most recently a 121-107 loss to the Kings as eight-point favorites. These two teams have little familiarity with each other because they have not played since Dec. 12, 2019. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic pause, they never played in 2020.

Now they will be playing twice in eight days after going over 16 months without facing off.

Detroit Pistons LogoThe Pistons are getting their leading scorer Jerami Grant back on Wednesday after he missed Monday’s contest. Grant averages 22.4 points per game and is the only Detroit player who averages over 15 points. Mason Plumlee leads the team in rebounding with nine boards per game and should also be well rested after sitting out Monday.

Guards Dennis Smith Jr. (knee) and Killian Hayes (hip) will miss Wednesday’s game along with Rodney McGruder (elbow). Despite a terrible record this season, the Pistons have been a profitable team to bet on, going 31-24-3 against the spread to this date.

Dallas Mavericks LogoNBA MVP candidate Luka Doncic leads the Mavericks with 28.6 points, 8.7 assists and 7.9 rebounds per game. Dallas has shown massive improvements since big man Kristaps Porzingis got healthy and became a regular in the lineup. Porzingis is averaging 20.5 points and 9.4 rebounds in the 37 games he has played this season.

Also, guard Timmy Hardaway Jr. has been upgraded to probable after missing time with an illness. This is great news for Dallas as Hardaway is a lethal three-point threat and is third on the team in scoring with 15.8 points per game. The Mavericks currently sit in seventh place in the Western Conference standings, and only one and a half games behind the Trail Blazers for sixth. Every game down the stretch is a must win for Dallas if they hope to avoid the play-in games that await the 7-10 seeds.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Detroit Pistons +10½ (-110) +475 O 217 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks -10½ (-110) -650 U 217 (-110)

The Mavericks have lost back-to-back winnable games at home that could have vaulted them up the standings. This largey came about because of their inability to put the ball in the hoop. The Under has cashed in 11 of the past 13 home games for Dallas and 20 of their last 28 overall. The Under is 3-0-1 in the last four games Detroit has played in, with none of those games eclipsing 217 points. The Pistons have one player who averages over 15 points per game and the Mavericks should be able to slow Jerami Grant down enough to bring the Detroit offensive attack to a grinding halt. That being said, spotting the Pistons over five baskets is too many points with how the Mavericks have been playing of late, so the value of this wager lies in the Over/Under total. Take the Under of 217 points in a game between two offenses not firing on all cylinders.

Then hope for an ugly game that features at least one team unable to score 100 points.
The Bet
Under 217

*Odds courtesy of MyBookie

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Joe Menzer / Author

Joe is an award-winning writer and editor who has covered the NBA, NFL, NASCAR, golf, various collegiate athletics and other sports for newspapers, Turner Sports, Fox Sports and ESPN. He has been on the beat for seven Super Bowls, six Daytona 500s and numerous NBA playoff series and All-Star Games. He once was dispatched to Rome, Italy to spend time with an NBA draft choice who opted to play overseas, after which he produced an award-winning series of stories. He also is passionate about fantasy sports and breaking down games in ways that even novice gamblers can use to make their most intelligent wagering decisions.

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