DraftKings NBA Picks – October 28th

What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for October 28th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with eight games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter.@Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

PF/C: Demarcus Cousins: (11,900) Boogie rose to the occasion Thursday night, putting up a ridiculous stat line of 41 points, 23 rebounds, six assists, one block, one steal across 44 minutes of action in a win over his former team, The Kings. (83.75 DK points) All this happened with fellow big man Anthony Davis out (knee), and the big man is now listed as questionable for Saturday’s match-up vs The Cavs. Even though there isn’t any serious damage done to his knee, it seemed like there was really no shot he was going to suit up Thursday, making me think it is very unlikely he plays tonight. In the event he is out, Cousins will take on a massive role once again, with him averaging a 39.6% usage rate with AD off the floor this year. This is also a very intriguing match-up vs this Cavs team that has a solid opponent +/- of 1.71 points to opposing centers and ranks in the bottom ten in defensive efficiency this season. They have allowed over 100 points to 5/6 first opponents of the year.

I think it also important to note this game is being played at home in New Orleans. Over the last two seasons, Cousins has been a much more comfortable player on his home floor, averaging a sizable 6.2 more DK points a game. His salary has increased all the way up to being the highest priced player of the slate at $11,900, making 60 DK points the point that he would need to hit to meet value. In this      match-up, he should top 60 DK points, with the kind of upside we saw on Thursday night. A key thing about this situation is that this game is the first game of the night to tip (7:00 PM EST), so we should have official word about Davis before lock. If he is out, Boogie should be the stud you build around tonight and I would also would want to get PG Jrue Holiday in as well. (37 DK points in 41 minutes last game) But if he somehow plays, I would either go with a more balanced approach, or pivot to James Harden, who is under priced at $10,600 in a neutral match-up vs The Grizzlies (0.66 opponent +/-), who no longer have their best defensive guard, Tony Allen. UPDATE: Davis is officially in and will have no minutes limit. He is intriguing at his price, but always has risk, especially coming off an injury. With the news of Derrick Rose remaining out, I prefer LeBron over Harden now, unless Eric Gordon is out, who is all the sudden questionable tonight for The Rockets with an illness. 

Value Picks:

PF/C: Ryan Anderson: (4,400) Last night with backup center Nene out (Achilles), Anderson was forced to play some center and log 34 minutes vs  The Hornets. He was excellent in the win, scoring 21 points, six rebounds, one assist, one steal, and one block, while shooting 6/15 from beyond the arc. (38.5 DK points) Looking at the box score, you could say he played this high of minutes because starting center Clint Capela got in foul trouble, but in the game before this with both Nene and Trevor Ariza out, Anderson saw an even higher 37 minutes against The Sixers on Wednesday night. (20.75 DK points)

Tonight, The Rockets are expected to be without Nene and Ariza, which should put Anderson around 35 minutes again vs The Grizzlies. By no means is this a good match-up for Anderson going against this slow Grizzlies team (3rd slowest), but he is simply under priced for the playing time he will see. You can’t expect another close to 40 DK point outing, but at only $4,400, Anderson is a solid value play that should meet five times value.

SG/SF: Rodney Hood: (5,100) Surprisingly after missing two games with a leg injury, Hood came out and played a season high 35 minutes vs The Suns on Wednesday. He didn’t explode, but Hood was solid in his return, putting up 22 points, two assists, and a rebound in the loss. (25.75 DK points) With no game last night and no game tomorrow, Hood should have no restrictions again tonight vs The Lakers.

This is a match-up that Hood should thrive off, with this Jazz team  playing way up pace, as The Lakers are the fastest team in the NBA, compared to The Jazz who are the slowest. His usage is slightly up from last season with Gordon Hayward gone (24.4%), and I would expect this usage to stay around 25% while he is healthy. At a projection of 35 minutes with this kind of usage, Hood should top 25 DK points vs this Lakers defense. Lastly, it looks like no one is going to be on Hood (0-1% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), making him an excellent GPP target for this eight game slate.

C: Steve Adams: (6,000) If you exclude his 14.75 DK point game vs Rudy Gobert, who is arguably the best defensive center in The NBA, Adams is averaging a great 38.1 DK points a game. Tonight, he gets a solid match up vs The Bulls, who have allowed the 5th most DK points to opposing centers. He is playing 31.6 minutes a game this season, and he should continue to see this kind of workload against this Bulls team, that doesn’t play much small ball, with starting center Robin Lopez averaging 31.5 minutes a game.

In the early stages of this season, Adams is scoring 0.94 DK points per minute, and with 30+ minutes, Adams should produce around 30 DK points, with the chance for 40-45 DK points, depending on his defensive stats, and if he can pick up a double-double. At $6,000, he is a solid cash game play, and also a strong GPP target, because I don’t think many people have noticed how efficient he has been this season.(2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

Also Consider: Bam Adebayo (started for Whiteside out last game. The rookie did okay with 16 DK points in 20 minutes. At only $3,000, he is a serviceable punt against this Celtics front court), P.J. Tucker, Austin Rivers, Marcus Smart (better if he is starting), Terry Rozier, Daniel Theis (only if he starts again), Kelly Olynyk, Marquese Chriss, Patrick Beverly, Evan Turner, Stanley Johnson, Dennis Smith Jr., and T.J. McConnell (better if J.J. Redick is out, but should still see some extra run with Fultz out).




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