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DraftKings NBA Picks – April 10th


Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for April 10th, 2018. Tonight, we get a solid slate with six games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG: John Wall: (8,500)

Wall is one of the few high end players in action tonight, that still has something to play for. They are currently the eight seed in The East and are only a half-game behind The Heat for the seven seed and only a game and a half behind The Bucks for the six seed. It is certainly possible for them to move up one or two spots with two games left in the regular season and after being rested on Friday, Wall should be ready to play heavy minutes in his second home game since his return from the knee injury that costed him a big chunk of this season. In his last game, last Thursday, he showed no signs of limitations, scoring 28 points, 14 assists, four rebounds, and three steals in a high 38 minutes. (59.5 DK points) Now, with four days of rest under his belt, he should approach 40 minutes again on Tuesday night vs The Celtics. Boston is officially locked into the two seed in The East and we may not have word right now, but there is a good chance Brad Stevens decides to rest a few of his key players, as he did on Friday and Sunday.

Even if all of the main Celtics are active, none of the important players should log heavy minutes, making this number one ranked defense a shell of itself, as we saw Sunday, when they allowed 112 points to The Hawks in a loss. Wall has averaged 1.25 DK PPM since coming back and with a projection of 35 minutes, with the chance for more, with The Wizards only favored by seven points, he should score 45-50 DK points in this important game. Additionally, he will benefit from being at home, where he has always been much better throughout his career and this season has been no different, with him averaging 4.6 more DK PPG at home in Washington. Wall was priced well over $9,000 at times before he got hurt and $8,500 is a very reasonable price for him at home in an important tilt.

Value Picks:

SG/SG: Lance Stephenson: (4,500)

The Pacers are locked into the five seed in The East and they will rest SG Victor Oladipo, SF Bojan Bogdanovic, and PF Thaddeus Young this evening. Stephenson should draw the start at the two spot and is a must play at his cheap price tag. There is no full games that all three of these players have missed this season, but in the six games that Oladipo missed alone, Stephenson averaged 30.71 DK PPG in 33.71 MPG. When you take all three of them off the floor, Stephenson is averaging 32.74 DK points per 36 minutes, in a large sample size of 442 minutes.

There isn’t any matchup in the league that would stop me from playing him in this situation, but his matchup tonight vs The Hornets is just an added bonus, with them ranking as the 9th worst defense in the league over their last three games and having nothing to play for, as they are officially out of the playoff race. (2.07 opponent +/-) Stephenson loves stepping up to the plate when asked to, hence why he has the nickname “born ready”. I am expecting at least six times value from him, with a ceiling around 45 DK points. Don’t think about this one and lock Stephenson in all your lineups.

PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (5,200)

Sabonis is another value play that needs to be considered, with The Pacers resting players. Even with everyone healthy and suiting up, Sabonis went off for a career high 30 points, while also chipping in with eight rebounds, three assists, and three steals on Sunday vs The Hornets (49.5 DK points), who are the same opponent he will face tonight. It’s unclear if he will start in place of Young, but regardless of being a starter or not, Sabonis should play 30+ minutes with these players out.

He sees a 1.2% usage increase in this situation and is scoring 1.02 DK PPM, when you take these three off the floor this season. As I previously said, this Hornets team has nothing to play for and has struggled defensively recently. I am not expecting another 50+ DK point game, but Sabonis should expose them for 30-35 DK points.

PG/SG: Tyler Ennis: (4,500)

He hasn’t been ruled out yet, but I am expecting Lakers’ starting PG Lonzo Ball (knee) to miss his sixth straight game. They will also be without backup PG Isaiah Thomas (hip), SF Brandon Ingram (head), and possibly starting SF Kyle Kuzma. (questionable, ankle) They experimented with PG Alex Caruso for a little bit, but they have gone back to the more reliable Ennis in these last four games without Ball, Thomas, and Ingram. He may not start, but he is the PG playing the most minutes, averaging 26.75 MPG, helping him to score 29.2 DK PPG.

The Rockets have been playing their starters heavy minutes, even though they have nothing to play for, but they could possibly limit some of them tonight, but either way, this is a decent spot for Ennis. (1.51 opponent +/-) This game has the second highest O/U game total of the night (217.5 points) and Ennis should top 25 DK points in roughly 30 minutes of work, as he is averaging 1.1 DK PPM in these past four. Even if we don’t have confirmation about Ball before lock, I will still be using Ennis, as there really is no reason for them to risk playing him.

Also Consider:

Glenn Robinson III: Is only averaging 0.6 DK PPM this season, but I am expecting close to 30 minutes from him tonight, putting him into value conversation at this near minimum price tag of $3,100.

Guillermo Hermangomez: 28.4 DK PPG in his last five, which is an elite 1.43 DK PPM. He won’t play much, but he should exceed value again, in this awesome matchup vs The Pacers, who will be resting three starters and are already a high current opponent +/- of 4.64 points.

Trevor Booker: Viable if he starts for Young. He scores 0.9 DK PPM this season and should get over 20 DK points, if indeed starting.

Johnathon Motley: His minutes came all the way back to 16 last game, but before this, he played over 40 minutes in two straight, scoring 27 DK points vs The Magic, and then 49 vs The Pistons. This is The Mavs last game of the season and it makes complete sense for them to give this rookie extended run again tonight, but there is risk as we never know what Coach Rick Carsile is thinking. Last but not least, the matchup is outstanding vs The Suns, who are a 3.97 opponent +/- and 5.1 possession increase for The Mavs.

Josh Hart: 37.4 DK PPG in last two. Fine play, under the assumption Ball sits.

Dragan Bender: If Marquese Chriss , T.J. Warren, and Alan Williams are both out again. Bender scored 36.5 DK points in 41 minutes last game with these three bigs out.

Donovan Mitchell: Is priced correctly, but they need to win and he has the best upside on this team. He went off for 54.75 DK points vs The Lakers on Sunday and is averaging 37.7 DK PPG vs The Warriors this season.

Danuel House: If Devin Booker, Troy Daniels, and Josh Jackson are out. House essentially played the whole game on Sunday with these three sitting, scoring 39.5 DK points vs The Warriors and even though The Suns have literally nothing to play for, House does, as he is trying to get a guaranteed contract in The NBA for next season.

Ben Simmons: If is active. The Sixers still need to win to lock up the three seed in The East. This is a strong matchup vs The Hawks, who are a 3.82 opponent +/-.
PLAY THIS LINEUP

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