DraftKings NBA Picks – April 10th

What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for April 10th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with nine games on tap. Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:00 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

PG: Chris Paul: (8,600) Paul has stepped up as The Clippers fight to keep the three seed in The West, averaging 49.4 DK points over his last six games.  His minutes have been steady averaging 34 minutes a night and he also has picked it up offensively, seeing a 1.5% usage rate bump, and a 3.5% assist percentage increase. With only two games remaining, tonight’s tilt vs The Rockets is very important for this Clippers team, if they want secure home court for the first round. This is a nice matchup for him with The Rockets allowing the ninth most DK points to PGs this season. They also may be a weaker defensive unit overall, as Coach D’Atoni has expressed that he plans on lowering The Rockets’ starters minutes in these last few games.

Vegas expects this game to remain close with The Clippers only favored by seven points, and Paul should play 30-35 minutes and score 45-50 DK points with The Clippers having the highest implied team total of the night at 118.25 points. He has thrived this year when The Clippers have had high team totals like this, averaging 45.21 DK points in the seven games that The Clippers have had a Vegas implied team total of at least 115 points. His price has seen a $700 jump since the last time he played, but he is still a strong value at $8,600, when factoring the importance of tonight’s game.

Value Picks:

PG: Brian Roberts: (3,000) With starting PG Kemba Walker (knee) doubtful and back up PG Ramon Sessions also expected to remain out (knee), Roberts is the next man up and should start at PG for The Hornets tonight. This is going to be the second game this year that Walker has sat out, but this will be the first game that both him and Sessions will miss this season. Roberts has been solid when both guards have been off the court this season, seeing a 2.8 DraftKings point increase, and scoring 26.19 DK points per 36 minutes of playing time.

With him and Briante Weber the only true PGs left on this roster, Roberts should start and play 30+ minutes tonight vs The Bucks. This isn’t an ideal matchup for him, with The Bucks allowing the 5th fewest DK points to PGs, but with the type of minutes he should see, he is in play no matter the matchup when considering his price. He is averaging 0.74 DK points per minute this season, and with 30+ minutes, he should definitely return five times value with 25 DK point upside tonight.

C: Boban Marjanovic: (5,000) Marjanovic didn’t explode last night, but he was still very productive, scoring 29.5 DK points in 22 minutes against a tough Grizzlies defense. He has serious upside tonight, taking on a Wizards defense that has been horrible defending centers as of late, with a high current opponent +/- of 3.45 points. We just recently saw Heat center Hassan Whiteside absolutely dominate this same Wizard defense for 58 DK points this past Saturday night.

Now I don’t think Marjanovic is even close to the player Whiteside is, but this just shows you how vulnerable this defense is to opposing centers right now. Even in smaller role of only 20-25 minutes, Marjanovic should still put up great numbers, with him averaging a ridiculous 1.44 DK points per minute over these last two games. He may end up being a popular play (17-20% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but no matter his ownership, he is a player that I can’t ignore in this excellent matchup.

SG/SF: Evan Turner: (3,900) Turner should play a much bigger role tonight, with PG Damian Lillard, SG C.J. McCollum, and SF Allen Crabbe all being rested, with The Blazers clinching a playoff spot after a Nuggets loss yesterday. Turner has had a disappointing season with The Blazers, but with all three of these players out, especially Lillard and McCollum, he is one of the only remaining players who can run the offense and handle the ball effectively. It is a very small sample of only 15 minutes, but when all three of these players have been off the floor, Turner is posting a high 27.1% usage rate, which is a massive 8.4% increase from his usual rate this season.

He will still come off the bench tonight, but overall I think it will be Turner who does most of the ball handling and leads this team in usage. He is a player who usually succeeds when he sees a high usage rate, with him averaging 25.5 DK points in his last 87 games that he has had an usage rate of at least 20%. Even in this very difficult matchup vs The Spurs, Turner is a player who is worth a shot in GPPs, with his low expected ownership of 5-8%. (via Fantasy Labs)

Also consider: Kelly Olynyk (if Amir Johnson is out again), Shabazz Napier, Noah Vonleh, Henry Elleson, Jae Crowder, Montrezl Harell, Ish Smith, Stanley Johnson, Jeremy Lamb, Tyler Johnson (played 37 minutes in his last game), Deron Williams, J.R. Smith, Joe Ingles, Channing Frye,  Brandon Jennings (if Wall is out), and Jerian Grant.