gravatar

DraftKings NBA Picks – April 11th


What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for April 11th, 2018. For the last night of the regular season, we get a massive 13 game slate. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Nikola Jokic: (10,600)

Tonight’s Nuggets-Wolves game is essentially a playoff game, as the two teams have the same exact record and whoever wins will be the eight seed in The Western Conference. Its win or go home and The Nuggets are going to continue to ride Jokic and their six game winning streak in this massive game. He has been the main reason they are winners of six straight and still have playoff hopes. During this stretch, he is averaging a whopping 60.5 DK PPG. All of his rates have increased, with him seeing a 27.3% usage rate, a 33.8% assist percentage, and a 18.3% rebound percentage, which are all team highs, resulting in an elite 1.56 DK PPM. With everything on the line, Jokic should play right around 40 minutes in this tilt that should be tight throughout. (-3 MIN)

I usually like targeting Jokic more at home (6.1+), but he has been a monster on the road as well recently, averaging 63.25 DK PPG in his last three road games. He should score 55-60 DK points with huge upside in this nice matchup vs The Wolves, who are currently an opponent +/- of 3.95 points. I also really like Karl-Anthony Towns at $10,100. He has the home court advantage, where he is scoring 4.9 more DK PPG this season and has the cheaper price tag, but I think Jokic has the better upside, with him having the better matchup overall, and with Jimmy Butler being back for The Wolves, slightly hurting KAT’s usage. Either way, I think both are awesome targets and I will be building around these two stud big men in this Western Conference showdown.

Value Picks:

PF/C: Eric Moreland: (4,300) As the starting center, with center Andre Drummond (Achilles) and PF Blake Griffin (ankle) sidelined, Moreland scored 27.25 DK points in a season high 32 minutes of action on Monday night vs The Raptors. The Pistons will be without their two main bigs again tonight and Moreland should play 30+ vs The Bulls, who are the 6th worst rated defense in the league over their past three games. (3.06 opponent +/-)

He is averaging 0.93 DK PPM this season and with this kind of playing time, in a positive matchup, Moreland should crush value, even at this new higher salary. 25+ DK points is a fair expectation and he is the best point per dollar value of this huge slate.

PF/C: Montrezl Harrell: (5,000)

In the first game after knowing they were eliminated from the post season, Harrell played 33 minutes off the bench, with starting center Deandre Jordan only logging 22 minutes in Monday’s loss to The Pelicans. As expected, the stud fantasy producer in Harrell (1.17 DK PPM), went off for 43 DK points with the expanded playing time. The Clippers rested SG Lou Williams and SG Austin Rivers in this game, and both are listed as questionable tonight, but even if they are in, this shouldn’t effect Harrell’s minutes. His great game on Monday wasn’t about these two guards being out, it was purely off the higher minutes he played. He should play right around 30 minutes again tonight, with the potential for more, in a tremendous spot vs The Lakers, who have allowed the 5th most total rebounds per game over their last three and are rating at a high opponent +/- of 4.82 points.

This is technically a home game for The Clippers, which is also an added boost for Harrell, who is scoring 4.5 more DK PPG at home this season. He should have no issues vs this defense and I am expecting 30-35 DK points, with a ceiling around 50 DK points. His price has gone up $300 since Monday, but I still love Harrell at this new higher salary and I will be using him with confidence in all formats for this regular season finale slate. Update: Harrell is now questionable with a shoulder injury, this is something to watch cause he really is such a strong target if active. If we don’t have word before lock, I don’t think he is worth risking in cash, but would still be viable in GPPs.

SG/SF: Luke Kennard: (4,300)

He struggled in his first start for SF Reggie Bullock (knee), but he has been great in his last two, averaging 34.25 DK PPG. He has played over 30 minutes in both of these games and with Drummond and Griffin both out again, Kennard should see 30-35 minutes, with the chance for more, considering he is a rookie and this is the final game of the regular season for The Pistons. He is scoring right over one DK point per minute in these past two starts and with the higher playing time I am projecting, Kennard should get us five to six times value, in this awesome matchup vs The Bulls, who have slipped to a high opponent +/- of 4.26 points.

They are also allowing a league high 18.3 three pointers made per game in their last three, which is huge news for a gunner like Kennard. I really like attacking the rookie at this price and he has a pretty strong chance of topping 30 DK points for the third straight game.

Also Consider:

Karl-Anthony Towns: Above.

Ben McLemore: He played 41.4 minutes last game and scored 28.25 DK points. His floor is low, but anyone playing this much needs to be considered at this cheap of a price.

MarShon Brooks: Very nice GPP target as he slightly disappointed on Monday night, with only 25.25 DK points vs The Wolves. His usage was still at a very high 30.9% and he played 30.5 minutes in the loss. He should see similar numbers again tonight, in this positive spot vs The Thunder, who are a 3.32 opponent +/-.

Willie Cauley-Stein: 40.1 DK PPG and 35.7 MPG in his last three. The Rockets may not rest anyone, but they have zero to play for.

Andre Ingram: Surprised the world coming out and scoring 33.75 DK points in 29 minutes off the bench last night. There is a ton of buzz going on about The G League star and I don’t see why they wouldn’t let him 30+ minutes in this last game of the season. Don’t expect over 30 DK points again, but he should exceed value at this bare minimum price.

Nikola Mirotic: Been outstanding scoring over 50 DK points in three straight games. His minutes have been up to 36.1 MPG during this time and should play high minutes again tonight in this important game vs The Spurs. The matchup is obviously ugly vs The Spurs, but given how hot he is and the significance of this game, he has to keep being considered. He has a Vegas prop score of 32.1 points. (via Fantasy Labs)

Jamal Murray: Sucked last game, but viable in this playoff type atmosphere.

Sean Kilpatrick: 28.8 DK PPG in his last five. Should be gunning in this last game of the year.

Damyean Dotson: 20+ DK points in back to back games and he should play higher minutes in this finale. I like his upside for GPPs.

Josh Hart: 36 DK PPG in last three and Ball and Ingram will be out again. The matchup is also strong vs The Clippers, who have given up and should rest their key players. (4.02 opponent +/-)

Greg Monroe: Viable with Al Horford being rested. He scored 56.75 DK points last Friday, with Horford sitting and is playing The Nets, who are arguably the best matchup he could ask for, currently sitting at a high 7.16 opponent +/-.
PLAY THIS LINEUP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *