gravatar

DraftKings NBA Picks – April 11th

What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for April 11th, 2017. Tonight’s slate is a decent slate with five games on tap.Be sure to follow all the injury news up until the 7:30 PM EST lock tonight, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (10,200) With The Hawks being the only team that has anything to play for tonight, it makes sense to target Towns and The Wolves, who haven’t seen their minutes get cut back at all, even though they are completely out of the playoff race. Wolves Head Coach Tom Thibodeau is never going to change and he has always played his starters fully no matter the situation. They have known for a while now that weren’t going to make the playoffs, but Towns is still playing 36.3 minutes a game for the month of April. Even with no real goal to motivate him, he has still been playing great, averaging 53.6 DK points in this span, and is coming off a massive 76.75 DK point performance vs The Lakers on Sunday night.

Tonight he is going against a Thunder defense that ranks 8th vs centers, but this game will be played at home in Minnesota, where Towns is averaging 4.3 more DK points a game. Also you will hear this about a lot of teams at this point of the season, but with The Thunder locked into the six seed in The West, they may elect to sit or limit some of their starters minutes, which would result in this defense becoming weaker as a whole. Towns should log his usual 35-40 minutes tonight, and score 50-60 DK points, making him my favorite player to build around on Tuesday night.

Value Picks:

C: Alexis Ajinca: (4,100) The Pelicans will be without Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins again, which should keep Ajinca as The Pelicans starting center tonight. It is no surprise that he has been effective with both of the big men out, averaging 26.6 DK points in 28.15 minutes over the last two games. He couldn’t be in a better spot to produce again on Tuesday night, in a dream matchup vs The Lakers who have allowed the third most DK points to centers this season, with a current opponent +/- of 4.64 points, which is the highest opponent +/- for any player competing tonight.

As a starter in these last two games, he is averaging 0.93 DK points per minute, and with a projection of 25-30 minutes, he should return five times value with 30 DK point upside, particularly if he picks up a double-double. There is no question that Ajinca will be one of the chalk plays of the night, but it is for very good reason, because he is arguably the best value of this five game slate.

PG/SG: Jamal Murray: (5,500) The Nuggets have been officially eliminated from The Playoffs, so they have decided to have PF Kenneth Faried (back), PG Jameer Nelson (calf), SG Will Barton (foot), and SF Danilo Gallinari all sit out tonight’s matchup vs The Mavs, who have also throw in the towel for the year. Murray will start again at PG, and with him being a rookie and one of the youngest guys on the team, he should be one of the players who sees the most playing time in this meaningless game. He has played 36 and 38 minutes over his last two, and even though those games mattered, I still think we still see him log close to 40 minutes this evening vs The Mavs.

This Dallas defense has been a stout unit all season, but they haven’t been giving their starters much playing time over the last few games, and plan to continue this tonight. For the season, when Murray has been on the court without these four Nuggets, he is posting a solid 23.1% usage rate. This number could end up being even higher, if back up PG Emmanuel Mudiay is also ruled out, (questionable, ankle) with Murray seeing a 25.3% usage rate in the 50 minutes he has played without all of five of these teammates this year. His price has obviously jumped a whole $1,000 over the last six days, but he is still very much in play tonight at $5,500, when considering the unpredictability of this slate.

PG/SG: Jordan Clarkson: (5,700) Clarkson should lead this Lakers team tonight, with combo guard D’Angelo Russell out for personal reasons. Clarkson’s minutes were hard to predict earlier in the season, but he has been playing much more over the last few months, and in the 156 minutes he has played with Russell off the floor since The All Star Break, he is seeing a huge 7% usage increase, leading this team 29.3% usage rate, and a 7.7 DK point increase.

He is scoring 35.64 DK points per 36 minutes, which is right around how many minutes he should play tonight vs The Pelicans, who have given up the 10th most DK points to PGs for the year. I am expecting 30+ DK points out of him vs this defense, and he is a strong GPP target, that may end up going overlooked with so much value available.

Also Consider: Victor Oladipo (should soak up a ton of usage with Westbrook, Roberson, and Gibson resting. Has seen a 29.7% usage rate with all three off them off the court), Enes Kanter (leads this team with a 31.3% usage rate when all three of these players have been on the bench this season), Juan Hermangomez, Emmanuel Mudiay (if active), Wilson Chandler, Alex Len, Jeremy Lamb, Check Dialo, Dwight Powell, Quinn Cook, Jordan Crawford, and Tim Hardaway Jr.