DraftKings NBA Picks – April 12th

What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for April 12th, 2017. Tonight we get a full slate with 14 games on tap. Be sure to really follow all of the injury news tonight, with this being the last game of regular season, all the way up until the 8:00 PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

PG: Chris Paul: (8,800) With a win tonight, The Clippers will be guaranteed the four seed in The West over The Jazz. As I mentioned on Monday, Paul has taken his game to the next level over the last few weeks, averaging 50.6 DK points over his last six games. The Clippers are huge home favorites tonight vs The Kings (LAC -15), but even with this blowout risk, I think Paul is still very viable, just with The Clippers being one of the only teams that have an actual reason to win on Wednesday night.

Even if his minutes end up being cut short, I still think Paul will produce 45-50 DK points, regardless of this being a below average matchup right now. (-1.3 opponent +/-) The one worry is that The Clippers could know their own fate during their game (they own the tie breaker), with The Jazz playing The Spurs an hour and a half before The Clippers. But with absolutely nothing to play for The Spurs, they should limit or rest their main players, ultimately resulting in The Jazz picking up a win at home ( Jazz -4), which would keep the pressure on The Clippers to take care of their own business against The Kings. Simply put, Paul is one of the safest plays of this crazy slate, just because of his pedigree as a player in this important game.

Value Picks:

PF/C: Mason Plumlee: (4,400)Plumlee played well last night as The Nuggets starting PF, putting up 16 points, nine rebounds, one steal, and one block in The Nuggets win over The Pelicans. (29.25 DK points) His minutes weren’t affected by this game being meaningless, and he logged a nice 34 minutes with the starting role. Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, Jameer Nelson, and Will Barton will all be rested again tonight, so Plumlee will start and should play 30-35 minutes vs The Thunder. (0.86 opponent +/-)

His $4,400 price tag doesn’t reflect this type of playing time in anyway, with him scoring 0.99 DK points per minute since joining The Nuggets. It’s hard calling any cheap player a safe option tonight, but with Plumlee playing high minutes in the same situation last night, I think he is one of the best values of this slate, that can be used in cash games and GPPs.

PF: Michael Beasley: (3,200) Beasley hasn’t been playing much since returning from a hyper-extended knee, but with Giannis Anteokoumnpo, Matthew Delavdova, Khris Middleton, and Tony Snell all ruled out, he should start at SF and see a large workload tonight vs The Celtics. When these four players and SF Jabari Parker (knee) have all been off the floor this season, Beasley has lead this team with a high 30.5% usage rate and is scoring 1.05 DK points per minute. It is hard to guess his minutes, with him not playing over 13 minutes in any of the five games he has played since returning, but it would make sense for The Bucks to give him at least 20 minutes to help him get back up to speed with The Playoffs starting this weekend.

With 20-25 minutes he should easily return five times value at his price, with tremendous upside, if they let him off the leash and he logs 30+ minutes, vs this Celtics defense that currently has a solid opponent +/- 1.55 points vs starting PFs. Also, Beasley has already played well against this defense, once this season, scoring 28 DK points in only 22 minutes, back on January 28th. It’s very scary thinking about playing Beasley right now, but given the nature of this slate, with the upside he has if he plays significant minutes, he is one of the better punt plays to take a risk with on Wednesday night.

SG/SF: Justin Holiday: (3,900) The Knicks have been dead for a while now, and with most of their key players being rested or injured for the last week, Holiday has seen his role increase, averaging 29 minutes in his last six games. He has been solid with the extra playing time, averaging 22 DK points in these contests. I hate to keep listing names, but this season, when Holiday has been on the floor with Carmelo Anthony, Kristap Porzingis, Derrick Rose, Lance Thomas, Joahkim Noah, and Brandon Jennings all off, he is seeing a 4.9 DraftKings point increase, and is scoring 27.46 DK points per 36 minutes.

This is a reasonable projection for him tonight, with him logging a team high 40 minutes in The Knicks last game. Also he should be motivated to have a good game tonight, with Holiday being an unrestricted free agent this summer that presumably will be looking to get paid by a new team. The matchup isn’t appealing with The Sixers having a current opponent +/- of -0.94 points, but it’s really hard to evaluate either of these two defenses in this completely meaningless game. He is an easy player to fit in with his SG/SF eligibility and is one of my favorite cheap GPP plays of this 14 game slate.

Also Consider: Jamal Murray, Malik Beasley (if Emmanuel Mudiay is out again), Shabazz Napier (all the way up to $5,000, but is still viable with Lillard, Crabbe, and McCollum all out again), Noah Vonleh (37 minutes last game), Alexis Ajinca, Jae Crowder, Greg Monroe, Enes Kanter, Juan Hermangomez, Caris LeVert, Justin Hamilton, Mirza Teletovic, Brandon Jennings, Norman Powell, Evan Turner, Dwight Powell, Boban Marjanovic, Ty Lawson (better if Collison remains out), Jason Smith, and Spencer Dinwiddie.