Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for April 5th, 2018. Tonight, we get a smaller slate of only five games. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 8:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,400) I believe this the highest I have ever seen Jokic priced, but he is well worth the cost right now. He has put the team on his back, as the fight for a playoff spot, averaging a whopping 62.4 DK PPG in his last four. Yes, this average is inflated because of some overtime games, but his usage is all the way up to 28.1% and he is scoring an elite 1.5 DK PPM. He has been playing close to 40 regulation minutes per game and tonight he should play close to this number, in by far the best to target of Thursday’s slate. This matchup vs The Wolves is a massive tilt for both teams, with only one game separating the two Western Conference squads. Vegas is projecting a high scoring and tight affair, with it’s O/U game total of 223.5 points, which is a slate high, and small spread of only 4.5 points.
Furthermore, this matchup vs The Wolves has been a strong one for centers all year (3.95 opponent +/-) and Jokic will be at home, where he is so much more productive, averaging 6.1 more DK PPG, compared to when he is traveling on the road. To put this in perspective, he is averaging 63.25 DK PPG in his last four games at home in Denver. The price is rising, but The Joker is still a nice value play, that has safety and massive upside. He should score 55+ DK points in this spot and is a priority for me on Thursday night.
PG/SG: Jamal Murray: (6,300) Tonight, I want as much exposure to The Nuggets vs Wolves as possible. Like with Jokic, Murray has been playing high minutes as the make their playoff push, with him averaging 36.7 MPG in his past six starts. To no surprise, his fantasy numbers have been excellent, with a 35.8 DK PPG average during this span. Not only do The Wolves struggle with centers, they have been bad at defending PGs all season, allowing the 7th most DK points to the position and currently rating as an opponent +/- of 2.47 points.
Murray has balled on them already twice this season, averaging 43.6 DK PPG. He has scored 0.91 DK PPM in his last three and with 35-40 minutes, in this plus matchup, and extremely important game, Murray should score 35-40 DK points, with added upside, considering he also has significant home and away splits this season, with him averaging 4.4 more DK PPG at home. His price has actually dropped since his 35 DK point game vs The Pacers on Tuesday and he is a fine value play that will give you another share of this pivotal game.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (4,900) The Bucks have a playoff seed locked up, but it is still undecided if they will be the six, seven, or eight seed in The East. The goal should be to move up to the six seed, with a potential first round matchup vs The Sixers, who will likely be without center Joel Embiid (face), for at least the start of the first round. Either way, this game is still important for The Bucks tonight and Parker has shown us over the last two games that his knee injury is completely in the past. Two games ago, vs The Nuggets, Parker exploded for 58 DK points in a season high 38 minutes. His next performance wasn’t as dramatic, but he still played a higher 30.4 minutes and score 22.25 DK points in the win over The Celtics on Tuesday. He hasn’t played since and he has no game tomorrow, which should keep around 30 minutes again tonight in a great spot vs The Nets.
They play at the 6th fastest pace in the league vs The Bucks who rank 20th in pace this season. Additionally, this matchup is a slightly positive one for PFs, siting a current opponent +/- of 1.79 points. He has already faced this defense once this season, but it was in a much smaller role, of only 17.3 minutes, but just to show you how he will benefit from the pace increase, he scored a very effective 1.23 DK PPM in those minutes. With a projection of 30 minutes, with room for more, Parker should meet five times value, with 35-40 DK point upside.
PF/C: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: (6,200) I don’t like targeting players who have nothing to play for right now, but RHJ is simply too cheap. Yea, he had a bad game on Tuesday, only scoring 11.25 DK points, but his minutes were limited to only 17.23, with The Sixers smashing on The Nets by 26 points. Prior to this, Hollis-Jefferson was playing very well, averaging 36.25 DK PPG in his previous four. He played 30+ minutes in each contest and tonight, he should get back to that type of playing time vs The Bucks. (-8.5 MIL) The Bucks have more to play for, but they are still a decent matchup for The Nets, ranking as the 6th worst defense over their last three games. (1.82 opponent +/-)
His price was dramatically cut $800 after Tuesday and I think we see RHJ bounce back and score 30+ DK points in this spot. He is rating as a strong point per dollar play at this new salary and is someone who should be attacked, even though this game has no meaning for The Nets.
Clint Capela: Easily one of the toughest players to predict in NBA DFS, but the price and matchup is right tonight vs The Blazers. The are currently an opponent +/- of 4.02 points and if his minutes aren’t limited, he should exceed five times value.
Joe Ingles: The Jazz need to keep pace with their three game win streak to hold onto the four seed in The West and Ingles should see high minutes in this nice matchup vs The Clippers. They are sitting at a high opponent +/- of 3.82 points. Ingles fills the stat sheet in every category and I am expecting 30+ DK points.
Rudy Gobert: Excellent matchup vs The Clippers, who are a 5.62 opponent +/-, which is the best matchup for a starting center tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns: I don’t like that he is on the road, but he will likely play right around 40 minutes considering the importance of this game. He is averaging 48.4 DK PPG vs The Nuggets this season.
Austin Rivers: The Clippers aren’t technically dead yet and Rivers should play heavy minutes once again. The matchup is bad vs The Jazz, but he is just too cheap. He is averaging 33.1 DK PPG in his past two.
Ricky Rubio: Very nice spot vs The Clippers and he has been outstanding, topping 40 DK points in three straight.