What’s up guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for April 7th, 2018. Tonight, we get a solid slate with five games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:30PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
PG: Damian Lillard: (8,400) I get it, The Spurs are one of the better defensive teams in the league, but cutting Lillard’s price $600 is just ridiculous, when you consider how well he is playing right now. As The Blazers fight to hang on to the three seed in The West, Lillard has been leading the way for them, averaging 51.1 DK PPG in their last six. At his new price tag of $8,400, he needs to score 42 DK points to reach five times value, showing you how underpriced he is tonight, no matter the matchup. This game will also be on the road, which has been a plus for Lillard this season, with him averaging 1.6 more DK PPG when away from home.
As I have said, The Spurs are a strong defensive unit, ranking 3rd in efficiency this season, but they have actually been a positive matchup for PGs as of late, with them sitting at a current opponent +/- of 2.26 points. We should see 45-50 DK points out Lillard and with them still playing for something, I think this is a perfect time to utilize him at this discounted price, which is the cheapest he has been in almost two months.
SG/SF: Damyean Dotson: (3,100) Dotson has clearly been waiting for his chance, as he exploded for 30 points, 11 rebounds, one assist, one steal, and one block, across 36 minutes in Friday night’s surprise blowout win over The Heat. (52.75 DK points) SF Micheal Beasley (knee) exited shortly after tip off and then back up PG Emmanuel Mudiay left after only playing eight minutes, due to a headache. The Knicks were also without starting center Enes Kanter (back) and SF Lance Thomas (illness) in this game. Tonight, Kanter, Thomas, Mudiay, and SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle, doubtful) are all expected to be out and there is a strong chance Beasley also sits this one out. (knee, questionable) It shouldn’t matter much if Beasley is in or not, Dotson earned himself the playing time and with this Knicks team playing for absolutely nothing, it makes complete sense that they let the rookie go out there and play starter like minutes.
I am expecting him to approach 30 minutes and post a usage rate around 25%, with the potential for more if Beasley is out. He saw a 27.2% usage rate last night vs The Heat. His matchup is a nice one, vs The Bucks, who have ranked as the 4th worst defense in The NBA in their last three games and will also be without their best player, SF Giannis Antetokoumpo. (ankle) It is obviously a very small sample size of only one game, but Dotson scored 1.54 DK PPM last night. It is hard to expect this kind of production again, but at his current salary, Dotson only needs to score 15.5 DK points to reach value. He should easily do this and score 25+ DK points. Everyone is going to play him (41%+ projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but Dotson is a value that needs to be taken advantage of on Saturday night.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,600) As I said above, Antetkoumpo will be out tonight for The Bucks. Parker will take on more usage and should play a little more than 30 minutes tonight vs The Knicks. The Bucks could still possibly get the six seed, so this game is still important for them tonight. He struggled in the one game he played in without Giannis this season (14.75 DK points), but I think we should give him a pass on this and still attack him tonight, even though he is priced correctly. The Bucks will also be without back up SF Shabazz Muhammad (ankle) and SG Sterling Brown (personal), so there is a chance Parker could be pushed into the high 30s tonight.
PG Malcolm Brogdon could return (quad, GTD), but either way, with Giannis, Muhammad, Brown, Greg Monroe (traded), and Sean Kilpatrick (waived) all off the court this season, Parker is scoring an efficient 1.14 DK PPM. He should have no issues vs this Knicks team that is even more beat up than The Bucks and rating as an opponent +/- of 2.24 points. 30+ DK points is a fair expectation for Parker and he is the main value I will be targeting sans The Greek Freak.
PF/C: Kyle O’Quinn: (5,900) O’Quinn had another great game with Kanter out, scoring 44 DK points in the big win over The Heat last night. He only played 21.5 minutes in this game, but he would have played more if The Knicks didn’t shock everyone and beat The Heat by 24 points. In the prior two starts with Kanter sitting, KOQ averaged 31 MPG. He should get back into the 25-30 range tonight vs The Bucks, who have been an elite matchup for centers all season. (5.59 opponent +/-)
He has scored 1.25 DK PPM in the five games that he has played in with Kanter, PF Kristapas Porzingis (knee), Joahkim Noah (away from the team), and Willie Hermangomez (traded) all out. As the starter again for Kanter, O’Quinn has should get us 30-35 DK points, with excellent upside vs this soft Bucks defense. His salary has gone up in each of the last three games, but he remains a strong value play, that can be used in all formats.
Russell Westbrook: The Rockets have nothing to play for besides going into the postseason in good form, but everything is on the line for Westbrook and The Thunder. He has been doing everything he can, averaging 73.1 DK PPG in his last two starts and he should approach 40 minutes in this game that has a tight spread of only six points. We should see a 60+ DK point night for Russ.
Eric Bledsoe: Is averaging 34.9 DK PPG in the five tilts without Giannis this season and this is a nice spot vs The Knicks, but he could take a slight hit if Brogdon is back.
Khris Middleton: He has been the main beneficiary when Giannis sits, averaging 50.25 DK PPG in the five games without The All-Star, which is a 11 DK point increase.
LaMarcus Aldridge: Must win for The Spurs and this a great matchup vs The Blazers, who are a 3.23 opponent +/-. Aldridge is averaging 46 DK PPG vs The Blazers in their first two meetings of this season.
Frank Ntilikina: 25.5 DK points in 32 minutes last night. His floor is low, but he is viable, assuming Beasley is out.
Sean Kilpatrick: Has gotten better in each of his games with The Bulls, with 31.75 DK points last night vs The Celtics and now an average 27.2 DK PPG and 25.7 MPG in his last four. His matchup tonight vs The Nets doesn’t rate well right now, at a 0.55 opponent +/-, but don’t forget Kilpatrick played for The Nets just a year ago. I am sure he is pumped up and ready to have another strong game vs his former team.
Nikola Mirotic: Been outstanding, scoring 36.75 DK points vs The Grizzlies and then 59.5 DK points vs The Suns last night. This game is huge for The Pelicans and he should play around 30 minutes.