Welcome back guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for December 11th, 2017. Tonight’s slate is a solid slate with six games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 8:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PG/SG: Chris Paul: (8,100) The return of CP3 has been huge for The Rockets, as they have won nine straight games since he came back from a knee injury that held him out for almost a month. His minutes have been slowly going up and he has been excellent over his last two starts, averaging 50.75 DK points and 36 minutes. In these two wins he is posting a 24.9% usage rate along with a team high 40% assist percentage, and is scoring 1.33 DK points per minute. Tonight, he and The Rockets will be looking to continue their win streak at home vs The Pelicans, who are the 6th worst defense in the league over their last three games.
This is a plus matchup for Paul, as this Pelican team has allowed the 2nd most DK points to PGs this year, and are currently presenting an opponent +/- of 4.9 points. This Rockets Pelicans matchup has the highest O/U game total for Monday night, at 228 points, which is the highest total of the slate by 11.5 points. The spread is slightly concerning with The Rockets favored by 11.5 points on their home floor, but I think this game stays closer than that throughout, and Paul should play roughly 35 minutes in this contest. I am expecting another 40+ DK point showing from Paul and he is one of the better values of this six game slate, even at a higher cost of $8,100.
SF/PF: Danilo Gallinari: (5,300) He was limited in his first game back from a hip injury, only playing 26 minutes last Wednesday night, but he was let off his leash on Saturday, playing 36 minutes in the home win over The Wizards. He looked like himself with the starter like minutes, scoring 25 points, three rebounds, two assists, and a steal, resulting in a nice 33.75 DK points. He didn’t look to be in any discomfort, taking 19 shots, on a 31.9% usage rate.
The Clippers haven’t played since and with no game tomorrow, Gallinari should once again not be limited, and should play 30-35 minutes tonight vs The Raptors. Toronto is a solid defensive team (-0.55 opponent +/-), but the matchup isn’t scary enough to stop me from rostering Gallinari at this discounted price. At this salary he needs to score 26.5 DK points to meet five times value, which is definitely a strong possibility with the higher minutes that I am expecting. He is a very strong play at only $5,300 and is a value that needs to be attacked tonight before his price goes back up.
PG/SG: David Nwaba: (3,800) He has been slowly worked back since returning from an ankle injury, but his minutes have been much higher over these past two games, playing 32 minutes on Friday night and then 31 minutes on Saturday. This is clearly a sign he is back to full strength when we consider that he was not limited in anyway in this back to back set. In the higher minutes, he has been crushing value, averaging 30 DK points a game off the bench.
He has been a big reason why this Bulls squad have won back to back games and his minutes should stay around 30 minutes a night going forward, barring another injury. In these past two wins he is producing 0.94 DK points per minute and with a projection of 30 minutes, Nwaba should easily top 20 DK points vs this Celtics team that is currently a positive matchup, at an opponent +/- of 1.09 points. I am not expecting a huge night, but at a price of only $3,800, Nwaba is nice punt play that will help you get in the studs you want.
PG: Rajon Rondo: (5,800) This is more of a GPP play because this is the second night of a back to back set, but this factor should also keep his ownership lower in GPPs, even though he is way too cheap for how good he has been playing. Coming off being rested for Friday’s game, Rondo came out and had his best game in a Pelicans’ uniform, dropping 13 points, 18 assists, five steals, two rebounds, and one block, across 37 minutes in last night’s win over The Sixers. The 37 minutes was his season high and it seems like Rondo is fully back from his hernia injury. It helped that back up PG Jameer Nelson was out with an ankle injury and even though he is listed as questionable for tonight, it doesn’t sound likely that he will suit up, as he was showing discomfort just yesterday during the morning shoot around.
Even if Nelson plays, Rondo will start and should play around 30 minutes tonight, with the potential for high 30s, if Nelson is ruled out once again. The return of Rockets PG Chris Paul (knee) makes this matchup tougher than we saw in the beginning of the season, but it is still a nice spot for Rondo, who will be playing up in pace vs this Rockets team. This is a 2.4 possession increase for him and in the last 36 games, he has seen a possession bump of 2.0 or more, Rondo is exceeding expectations by 2.47 DK points. Furthermore, as I always mention with him, Rondo loves playing against the NBA’s best, especially a player like Paul, who he has notoriously not liked throughout his career. At a low expected ownership of 5-8% (via Fantasy Labs), Rondo is one of my favorite GPP plays of Monday night, that I would be fine with in cash, if we get confirmation about Nelson before lock.
Also Consider: Marcus Smart/Terry Rozier (Kyrie Irving has been ruled out for tonight’s game with a quad injury. Smart is the likely starter, but both players are great values that should both smash value, especially if they are asked to do even more if Horford is also out ), Daniel Theis (nice play if Horford is out), Jaylen Brown/Jayson Tatum (if Horford is out both of them we will see big bumps in usage with Kyrie already out of the lineup and they will also be asked to play more PF, naturally helping their rebounding rates as well), Kris Dunn (41.2 DK points over his last four games and this matchup vs The Celtics is positive at the moment, at a 1.44 opponent +/-), Jeremy Lamb (if Batum is out, he is averaging 29 DK points in the 13 games he played with Batum this season), Andre Roberson/Alex Abrines (if Paul George is out again), Trevor Ariza, Milos Teodosic, James Johnson/Kelly Olynyk (both have nice upside with Whiteside still out), Evan Turner (27.7 minutes in the start last game with Nurkic out. He struggled only scoring 13.5 DK points, but should bounce back soon with these kind of minutes), Frank Kaminsky (if he is active. He is averaging 27 DK points in the six games Cody Zeller has missed this year), Al-Farouq Aminu, and Meyers Leonard (if he starts again for Nurkic).