DraftKings NBA Picks – December 12th

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<p>Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for December 12th. Tonight, we get a full slate, with 11 games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @<a href=Hunta512.

Top Pick:

C: Joel Embiid: (10,500)

Jimmy Butler (groin) is doubtful to play tonight and when Embiid has been on the court without Butler, Dario Saric (traded), Robert Covington (traded), and Markelle Fultz (shoulder), his usage has increased to 37.6%, which is a 5% increase from his average rate. He is scoring 1.53 DK PPM in this scenario and he will also be in a beautiful matchup vs The Nets, who are a high 4.26 opponent +/-.

This is the best possible matchup for any player in action on Wednesday and in the two games Embiid has gone against an opponent +/- of 4.0 points or more this season, he is scoring a whopping 60 DK PPG. Everything is in his favor and we should see a big game from The Process on Wednesday.

Value Picks:

PG: Jalen Brunson: (3,800)

Brunson has been a great fill in for the injured Dennis Smith Jr. (wrist) these last three games (27 DK PPG) and tonight, he is one of the best possible spots for a PG, going against The Hawks, who are 23rd in defensive efficiency, and 1st in pace. (1.93 opponent +/-)

The rookie out Villanova has been generating 0.93 DK PPM as a starter and with DSJ already confirmed out, Brunson should play roughly 30 minutes, and return six to seven times value. There is no way he should still be priced under $4,000 and I recommend to keep attacking Brunson in this dream matchup.

PF/C: Robert Williams: (3,400)

As I predicted in Monday’s post, Williams had a career night in The Celtics’ win over The Pelicans. With Al Horford (knee), Kyire Irving (shoulder) Gordon Hayward (illness), Gerschon Yabusele (ankle), and Aaron Baynes (ankle) all out, Williams was recalled from The G League, and scored a career best 28.75 DK points, in an also career high, 26 minutes. Prior to this, the rookie hadn’t logged over ten minutes in a single game. Irving will return, but Horford, Hayward, and Yabu will remain out, while Baynes is considered questionable. Baynes’ ankle injury appeared to be a bad sprain last week and with Williams playing so well with a bigger role, I doubt they force him back tonight. Williams provides great defense and rebounding for this second unit, which is exactly what they expect from Baynes. In other words, Williams is the perfect replacement until Baynes returns.

The rookie scores 1.2 DK PPM and with 20+ minutes tonight, assuming Baynes sits, Williams should produce close to a double double, with a few blocks, vs this Wizards’ team, that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency, 7th in pace, and 2nd in most RPG allowed. (2.33 opponent +/-) His price tag only went up $400 since his Monday and we could be looking at eight to ten times value from Williams in this matchup. This game is one of the first of the night to tip, so we should know about Baynes in advance, and if he is deemed out, like I am expecting, Williams or “TimeLord” as many like to call him, will be an awesome punt play to attack. Last thing I want to mention is that on Monday, he could only be used as a center, but tonight, DraftKings has made Williams PF and C eligible.

PF/C: Julius Randle: (7,400)

Randle is a must play with Nikola Mirtoic (ankle) sidelined. With Mirotic only logging seven minutes on Monday, Randle scored 38.75 in the loss to The Celtics. He did all of this in only 28 minutes, but would have played much more, if Boston didn’t run away this game, early in the 4th quarter. Tonight, he should log closer to 40 minutes, with this Pelicans vs Thunder game only having a spread of two points. Randle has been an absolute beast in his last five games (1.4 DK PPM) and in the four games Mirotic has missed this season, he is producing an excellent 47 DK PPG.

The Thunder are the #1 defense in the association, but Randle should still top 40 DK points in this high scoring contest. (235 O/U game total, which is the highest tonight’s 11) He is a tremendous value at $7,400 and I honestly don’t know how you can build a lineup without Randle on Wednesday.

Also Consider:

PG: Russell Westbrook: (10,900)

Westbrook had a strange game on Monday (45.25 DK points and a triple double vs The Jazz, but only shot 22% from the field), but he should get back on track tonight, facing The Pelicans, who are 24th in defensive efficiency and 6th in pace. (1.63 opponent +/-) Prior to Monday, Westbrook had scored over 70 DK points in three of his last five games, and in the last six Thunder tilts that have had a total over 235 points, the former MVP is averaging 58 DK PPG. Westbrook should tally a triple double and over 60 DK points in this game.

PG/SG: Steph Curry: (9,800)

Tonight, The Warriors have a date with The East’s best Raptors. This game only has a spread of 6.5 points and assuming Kawhi Leonard is back (rested last night), The Raptors should keep this game close enough that all the starters see high minutes. Curry has averaged 51 DK PPG since returning five games ago and I could see him making a big statement on his home floor.

PG: John Wall: (8,400)

Wall (heel) will return tonight and it’s unclear if he will be back at full strength, but this a very reasonable price tag for him on his home floor. (45.6 DK PPG at home this season) Plus, The Celtics will be without at least Horford/Baynes, and they are a better matchup for guards when Irving suits up. Plus, Wall could see a bump in usage, if Otto Porter is out. (questionable, knee. Wall is seing a 2% usage increase sans Porter this year)

PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (7,800)

Holiday struggled vs a tough Boston defensive backcourt on Monday (21.75 DK points), but he should bounce back tonight, with him averaging 50.44 DK PPG, in the first four Mirotic missed this season.

C: Deandre Jordan: (7,300)

Jordan is very up and down, but this is a great spot vs The Hawks. (2.91 opponent +/-) In the seven home games this year, that have come with an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or more, DJ is scoring 39 DK PPG.

PF/C: Draymond Green: (6,600)

Green (toe) returned to action in Monday’s win over The Wolves (31.5 DK points in 29 minutes) and he should see more minutes tonight vs The Raptors. He scores 1.02 DK PPM and with possibly 35+ minutes, Green should surpass five times value, and I doubt many people will be on him. (2-4% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

PF/C: Bam Adebayo: (6,100)

Bam has been very productive with Whiteside away from the team (38.3 DK PPG in these last three) and tonight, he will continue to start, in a strong matchup, vs The Jazz (2.8 opponent +/-), that requires his size to defend Rudy Gobert. Expect another double double (two in these last three) and 30+ DK points from Adebayo.

SF/PF: Marcus Morris: (5,900)

Morris is going to lose some shots with Irving back, but his usage still rises a team high 4.1%, without Hayward, Horford, and Yabusele. He scores 1.1 DK PPM with these three off the court and he should score 30+ DK points, in this strong matchup, vs his twin brother, and The Wizards. (1.99 opponent +/)

PF/C: Larry Nance Jr.: (5,700)

Nance should start at center and play extended minutes, with Tristan Thompson (foot) out. He is scoring 1.0 DK PPM and Nance is looking at right around 30 minutes, in this plus spot, vs The Knicks. (1.88 opponent +/-) He should put up at least 30 DK points, with a ceiling over 40.

SF/PF: Justice Winslow: (4,900)

Winslow has been playing his best basketball of the season in these past three without Whiteside. (44.3 DK PPG) He scored 46 DK points vs The Clippers in the one game of these three that Goran Dragic (knee) also missed, and both, Whiteside/Dragic will sit on Wednesday. It’s unclear if Winslow will enter the starting five, but starter or reserve, he is way underpriced for his current production. He should get over five times value, with a ceiling well over 40, and is my favorite SF value of this full slate.

PG/SG: Marcus Smart: (4,500) 

Smart let many down, including myself, with only 18 DK points on Monday, but with this Celtics’ team remaining shorthanded, he is a viable target once again. The matchup is obviously strong, vs The Wizards (1.39 opponent +/-), and he should score 25+, with a starting role. (0.81 DK PPM this season)

PG/SG: T.J. McConnell: (3,500) 

After Butler left the game, it was Furkan Korkmaz (below) who started the second half, but McConnell also saw a bigger role, scoring 32 DK points in 28 minutes off the bench. Korkmaz probably will start, but McConnell is the more experienced and safer option. (0.78 DK PPM without Butler, Saric, Covington, and Fultz, which is a 0.3 DK PPM increase, the highest jump for a Sixers’ player)

SG/SF: Furkan Korkmaz: (3,200) 

Korkmaz started the second half after Butler exited their last game and he was exceptional, scoring a career best 32.25 DK points across 26 minutes vs The Pistons. He hit 4-7 from beyond the arc and also posted a decent 19.2% usage rate in the win. He scores a solid 0.94 DK PPM and if he starts, Korkmaz could obtain five times value, going against this 20th ranked Nets’ defense.

*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

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Alex Hunter / Author

Alex is an experienced and successful daily fantasy sports player that has been competing since DFS began. He specializes in picks for NBA, NFL and PGA. He has been writing for TheSportsGeek.com since 2016. During this time, his picks have won many of his readers big prizes and have helped him become a trusted name in the DFS industry. Not only does he give in depth picks on The SportsGeek.com, but Alex is also an active and reliable Twitter source who gives out updates about his picks and is always there for questions or advice. @Hunta512