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DraftKings NBA Picks – December 15th

What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for December 15th, 2017. Friday night’s slate is a huge slate with 11 games to attack . Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

PG/SG: Lou Williams: (7,600) The Clippers are going to be extremely thin tonight, with PF Blake Griffin (knee), SG Austin Rivers (head), PG Patrick Beverly (knee), and Danilo Gallinari (hip) all out, along with PG Milos Teodosic being rested. We don’t know if he will enter the starting lineup, but even if he doesn’t, Williams will be asked to take on a huge offensive workload tonight. Rivers played the first half of Wednesday night’s game, but he is ruled out with a concussion and missed the whole second half in the win. Williams did all he could do in this win, dropping 31 points, eight assists, three rebounds, and a steal on a very high 39% usage rate. (48.75 DK points)

We should expect similar usage tonight, with him seeing a 34.9% usage rate, and scoring 1.19 DK points per minute in the 129 minutes he has logged with all five of these players of the floor this season. Additionally, Clippers’ Head Coach Doc Rivers should use a tighter rotation, which should push Williams close to 40 minutes tonight. He will be seeing a slight pace increase (1.5 possessions) in a good matchup vs The Wizards, who are currently a 2.39 opponent +/-. The Wizards play better at home and are 9.5 point favorites, but I am expecting this game to stay closer than this, and in 35-40 minutes, Williams should produce 40+ DK points with massive upside.

Value Picks:

SF/PF: Sam Dekker: (3,700) In these last two games without Gallinari, Dekker has been a nice spark off the bench, averaging 22 DK points and 27 minutes. These are much higher minutes than he is used to (11.5 MPG) and he should see closer to 30 tonight with The Clippers even more shorthanded than usual. Not only will he most likely have to play more, but he should see receive usage bump, with him seeing a 2% usage increase in the 121 minutes he has logged with these five teammates off the court this year. This will slightly help his production, as he is scoring 0.91 DK points per minute in this situation, compared to his 0.75 average for the year.

The matchup vs The Wizards is also very intriguing, as they have allowed the fourth most DK points to PFs this season. (2.74 opponent +/-) With the higher rate I am expecting and in a modest projection of 25 minutes, Dekker should have no trouble exceeding five times value tonight. He is the strongest value on the board and is someone I will be using with confidence in both cash games and GPPs.

SF/PF: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: (5,800) I know I keep touting him, but there is literally no reason why Hollis-Jefferson’s price should have dropped $300 since last night. He is coming off a career night, where he filled up the stat sheet with 25 points, seven rebounds, four steals, three assists, and two blocks in 37 minutes. (48.25 DK points) The 37 minutes was huge for him and this was the most playing time he has seen in over a month. Center Jahill Okafor only played three minutes off the bench and it doesn’t look like it will be anytime soon that he enters the starting five and hurts Hollis-Jefferson and the rest of The Nets’ starters usage.

They didn’t get the win last night, but RHJ played so well that it would be very odd if he didn’t play over 30 minutes again this evening. He is scoring 1.1 DK points per minute in the five games he has now played without PF Trever Booker (traded to The Sixers), and if he sees 30-35 minutes again, which he should, RHJ should once again crush value at this soft price tag. I don’t really care that this matchup vs The Raptors isn’t the best (-0.91 opponent +/-), Hollis-Jefferson is a player that needs to be attacked at this discounted price on Friday night.

PF/C: Al Horford: (6,600) Horford is returning off being rested Wednesday at the perfect time, as he is the cheapest he has been in over two months. I get it.   The matchup vs Jazz center Rudy Gobert and The Jazz doesn’t look ideal, but they actually have been much worse recently, ranking as the 9th worst defense in the league over their last three games. (0.23 opponent +/-) He hasn’t played since Monday night and he should fresh and ready to log his normal minutes tonight.

Before being rested, Horford was playing some great basketball, averaging 38 DK points and 33.3 minutes in his prior seven games. This game is supposed to stay competitive (BOS -6) and it is also a plus that it is at home in Boston, where Horford is averaging 4.0 more DK points a game this season. He should log 30-35 minutes and put up 35-40 DK points, making him a very strong mid-tier target that is viable in all formats. It is also worth noting that PF Marcus Morris (knee) is still out for The Celtics. In the 12 full games without Morris this year, Horford has seen a 2.8% usage bump.

Also Consider: Jawun Evans (hopefully will start, but is viable either way at only $3,000. 18.25 DK points in 25 minutes last game after Rivers exited), Donovan Mitchell, C.J. Williams, Wesley Johnson, Clint Capela, Nikola Mirotic (41.1 DK points over these last two games without Markkanen. Must be considered at only $5,500), Kris Dunn (over 40 DK points in three of his last four games. Is only $6,500), David Nwaba, Dario Saric (better if Embiid is out, currently questionable), J.J. Redick, Andrew Harrison (if Tyreke Evans is out again, 35.75 DK points in the start last game with Evans out), Gary Harris/Will Barton (if Jokic is out), Mason Plumlee (if Jokic is out again, 30.4 DK points in these last two games without Jokic and Milsap), Spencer Dinwiddie (just like with RHJ, he is playing at another level right now, averaging 42.3 DK points and 33.2 minutes over his last three. He also should see a usage bump with SF DeMarre Carroll ruled out. In the time he has played without Carroll, Lin, Russell, and Booker this season he is seeing a 1.8% usage jump), Rajon Rondo (nice GPP play vs Denver. Surprisingly he only played 18 minutes last game, but the minutes should be back up tonight against this team he put 28.5 DK points on just last week), and James Johnson.

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