How’s it going everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for December 1st. Saturday night is a decent slate, with six games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,200)
Predicting when Towns is going to have a big night has been a tough task of late, but with no players over $10,000 worth spending up for, I think KAT is the best high end option of Saturday night. He will be at home, which has meant the world to him this season (7.9 more DK PPG at home), taking on The Celtics.
This might look like an ugly spot at a first glance (2nd in defensive efficiency and 0.38 opponent +/-), but they are allowing the 9th most RPG, and Towns is averaging 57.1 DK PPG in his last five meetings with Boston. Either way, he is slightly underpriced for his season average at home. (47.6 DK PPG) This game has a very small spread of only two points and in 35-40 minutes, Towns should approach 50 DK points.
C: Clint Capela: (7,800)
CP3 returning to the lineup was a positive for Capela, with him dropping a 27/12 double double in the blowout win over The Spurs on Friday night. (55 DK points) He is now averaging 40.7 DK PPG and tonight, he will going against a terrible interior Chicago defense. So far this season, they rank 20th in efficiency and 4th in most RPG allowed. (3.8 opponent +/-)
In the three other games that Capela has played an opponent +/- of 3.0 points or greater this season, he has dominated, with 43.9 DK PPG. I do worry about the blowout here (HOU -12), but Capela could manage value in less than 30 minutes in this spot, with huge upside, if he sees a full workload.
SG/SF: Alec Burks: (3,800)
In his Cavs’ debut, Burks was a nice spark off the bench, scoring a season high 32.5 DK points vs The Celtics. He saw a 25% usage rate and took 11 shots in this game, while playing 26.3 minutes. The playing may have been a little inflated, with this game being a blowout (95-128), but Vegas is projecting another big loss for The Cavs tonight, facing The East’s best Raptors. (TOR -13.5)
Even if this game stays competitive, I think Burks will be playing 20+ minutes a game going forward, for this Cavs’ team that desperately needs his pure scoring. He is producing 0.9 DK PPM and with 20-25 minutes off the bench, Burks should find his way into at least five times value. (TOR is a 1.65 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (7,200)
Russell has logged at least 34 minutes in three straight games. It’s a great sign that maybe this Nets’ coaching staff is finally starting to have more confidence in Russell as their starting PG. He has scored 48 DK PPG during this stretch and in the eight games he has seen above 30 minutes this year, he is generating a great 44.9 DK PPG. His usage has been high in these past three (36.3%) and if the minutes maintain, Russell should feast on this Wizards’ club, that ranks 2nd to last in defensive efficiency and 5th in pace. (3.71 opponent +/-)
This game is tied for the highest O/U game total of the night (228 points) and the last time Russell played Washington, he dropped 38.25 DK points in only 29.4 minutes. The Nets could easily pull back on his playing time and ruin everything, but that’s a risk I am willing to take with Russell, in this perfect matchup.
C: Andre Drummond: (9,400)
Outside of a very strange 27 DK points vs a bad Knicks’ defense, Drummond is averaging 45.4 DK PPG over the last two weeks. He averages 52.1 DK PPG at home and this matchup vs The Warriors is strong with Draymond Green (toe) still missing. (2.54 opponent +/-) The spread is only five points and 30+ minutes, Drummond should get a double double and at least five times value.
PG: John Wall: (8,900)
I always preach how much better Wall is at home (4.7 more DK PPG this season) and it has showed dramatically over the past week. In these past two road games, he has only scored 31.5 DK PPG, and The Wizards gave gotten blown out in each game. Before this, he scored 51.25 DK PPG, and led The Wizards to two straight wins, at home. The Nets are the 21st ranked defense in the league (2.38 opponent +/-) and in his last eight home games, that have also brought an opponent +/- over 2.0 points, Wall is scoring 46.44 DK PPG. He should bounce back and put up at least 40 DK points tonight.
SG: Bradley Beal: (8,000)
Before last night’s embarrassment vs The Sixers (25 DK points), Beal had scored over 44 DK points in three straight. Like Wall, he should get back on track vs this weaker Nets’ defense.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (6,800)
I would reserve exposure to Parker in GPPs, but before last night’s 20.5 DK point showing vs The Pistons, Parker had supplied 44.3 DK PPG in his five previous starts. Houston is a tough matchup (0.15 opponent +/-), but Parker has upside, and should be lower owned.
C: Tristan Thompson: (5,900)
The blowout concerns hurt Thompson as a starter, but he is just too cheap, if he can see normal minutes. (35.13 DK PPG in his last six) Plus, this matchup vs Toronto is positive (2.79 opponent +/-), and is one that requires his size, assuming The Raptors start Jonas Valanciunas opposite Thompson.
PF/C: Markieff Morris: (5,700)
Before only logging 22 minutes last night in the loss to The Sixers (10.25 DK points), Morris was scoring 36 DK PPG off the bench, with Dwight Howard (glute) out. Howard will be out for the next few months, so The Wizards desperately need Morris’ size and toughness. This is a plus spot for him vs The Nets (2.22 opponent +/-) and just like his teammates, I expect a rebound game from Morris on Saturday night.
PF: Marvin Bagley: (5,600)
If healthy (questionable, back), Bagley needs to be considered (28.4 DK PPG in his last six), even if the matchup isn’t the best. (Pacers are a 0.88 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic: (5,500)
Bogdanovic is simply too cheap right now. He scored 40.25 DK points in his last game and is averaging 28.9 DK PPG in his past six.
PG/SG: Marcus Smart: (4,200)
If Jaylen Brown (back) is unable to suit up, Smart is an excellent value to target. He has been great in these last two as the starter in place of Brown (29.4 DK PPG) and would have to play 30+ if SG missed another game. He scores 0.82 DK PPM and a projection of 30 minutes, puts him right over five times value.
SF/PF: Jonas Jerebko: (4,100)
In Thursday’s OT loss to The Raptors, Jerebko was The Warriors’ primary big. (39.75 DK points in 32.34 minutes) The minutes aren’t going to be this high, but he should log 25+, with Green still sidelined. This matchup vs The Pistons is above average (1.98 opponent +/-) and this is technically a “revenge” game.
SF/PF: Neman Bjelica: (3,900)
If Bagley was out, Bjelica would have to play around 25-30 minutes. He scores right over 1.0 DK PPM this season and he is averaging 33.2 DK PPG in the last eight he has played 25+ minutes.
*Please note most of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com