How’s it going everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for December 27th, 2017. Tonight we get a big slate with ten games on tap . Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: Karl Anthony Towns: (8,700) Kat’s matchup vs The Nuggets isn’t the best (0.02 opponent +/-), but he is returning home after a three game road trip, which is a very big deal for The Wolves’ big man. For the season he is averaging 47.4 DK points at home, which is a large 7.8 DK points more than when he is competing on the road. At his current salary he needs 43.5 DK points to meet five times value, which is something he definitely should do, with him averaging 51 DK points a game at home in the month of December.
His minutes have been high at 39 minutes a night over his last five starts and he should log close to 40 again tonight with this matchup vs The Nuggets having a small spread of only 5.5 points in favor of The Wolves. Furthermore, in the eight home games Towns has played in that the Wolves were favored in, he is averaging 46.2 DK points a game, which is 3.38 DK points +/-. No matter the matchup, he should never be priced under $9,000 when he is on his home floor, and Towns is one of my preferred options to pay up for on Wednesday night.
PG/SG: Jordan Clarkson: (5,600) With starting PG Lonzo Ball (shoulder) sidelined, Clarkson drew the start at PG on Christmas Day, and put up a line of 17 points, seven assists, six rebounds, and four steals vs The Wolves. (42.5 DK points) He played 35 minutes in the loss and even though SF Brandon Ingram is expected to return, Clarkson will remain the starting PG and should see 30+ minutes again with Ball remaining out. His usage will most likely dip a little with Ingram back, but he is averaging a very efficient 1.07 DK points per minute with center Brook Lopez (ankle) and Ball off the court this season.
Even though the price rose $900, in 30-35 minutes, Clarkson still has an excellent chance of smashing value in this matchup vs The Grizzlies that is actually rating as a positive matchup at the moment. (2.87 opponent +/-) He should produce 30+ DK points and has a very high ceiling, making him a core play in my eyes for this ten game slate.
SF/PF: Wilson Chandler: (4,700) Surprisingly, with center Nikola Jokic back, Chandler has been playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29 DK points, with a solid 17.4% usage rate, which is a decent increase from his 15.8% average for the year. His playing time has been very stable at 36.4 minutes a game. Barring an injury or crazy foul trouble, the minutes will stay high in a nice matchup vs The Wolves who are the 8th worst rated defense this season. (1.71 opponent +/-)
He has already played this Wolves team once this season and he was very effective in their first meeting, scoring 28.5 DK points in 37.2 minutes of action. He should score 25 + DK points again tonight and is easily one of the strongest overall values of this large slate. He can be used with confidence in all formats, and is a play that must be utilized until his price is adjusted.
PG/SG: George Hill: (4,500) In these last three games without rookie PG De’Aaron Fox (quad), Hill is averaging 31.9 minutes a game. During this stretch he has been a great value, averaging 27.25 DK points a game. His rates haven’t moved much. This increase is just off the higher minutes that he has been receiving. Tonight, he is at home taking on The Cavs, who are currently presenting a higher opponent +/- of 4.37 points to opposing starting PGs. Just like with Chandler, Hill has already had success this season vs the opponent he will face tonight, with him scoring 27 DK points in 30 minutes vs The Cavs earlier this month. The Cavs are 9.5 point favorites, which isn’t ideal, but I think The Kings should keep this game in striking distance so that Hill should approach 30 minutes.
If the minutes are there, he should easily get us five to six times value in this nice matchup. He also has some upside if he can be effective from the beyond the arc, which is a possibility vs this Cavs squad that has allowed the most three pointers made per game this season. His salary actually went down from his 25 DK point showing last night and he is a very nice value play at only $4,500.
Also Consider: Terry Rozier (a little over priced, but he should play close to 30 minutes with Brown and Morris out. Would be a better play if Ojeleye was also ruled out. He was doubtful, but has been upgraded to questionable with a back injury), Jayson Tatum (better if all three Celts forwards are out), Marcus Smart (should start for Brown), Daniel Theis (21 DK points in three full games with out Brown and Morris this year), Brandon Ingram (sneaky play coming off missing two games, usage should be up with no Ball and Lopez UPDATE: his minutes will be restricted, making him an unappealing play), Kobi Simmons (19 DK points in his last two games and is a bare minimum $3,000), Andrew Harrison (solid play that could become much stronger if Tyreke Evans was ruled out), Trey Lyles (getting the minutes he deserves and has now scored over 25 DK points in five of his last six games), Steven Adams, Derrick Favors, Kemba Walker (only $6,600 is at home where he is averaging 6.6 more DK points a game this season and is playing The Celtics who he dropped 44.8 DK points on earlier this year. The Celtics are never a good defense to attack, but they are currently beat up with Brown and Morris out, and possibly Ojeleye as well), Ersan Ilyasova (Over 30 minutes in his last two games and is averaging 33.75 DK points), and Otto Porter Jr. (31.25 DK points over his last two).