What’s up everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for December 28th. Tonight, is your usual Friday night slate, with ten games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (10,900)
This is a pretty reasonable price for Westbrook on a normal night (55.25 DK PPG in L2), but he is very underpriced with Paul George (hip) out. George has yet to miss a game this season, but when he has been off the floor, Westbrook is generating 1.54 DK PPM.
Plus, he is in a prime matchup vs The Suns. (1.28 opponent +/-) His usage should hit a very high level (+2.7% with PG13 off the floor) and we should see a MVP type night of 60+ DK points from Westbrook. At $10,900, he is the best high value of this ten game slate.
PG: Lonzo Ball: (5.900)
For the second straight night, Ball, and many other Lakers, are fine values, with LeBron James (groin) and Rajon Rondo (finger) remaining out. Last night, with The King missing his first game in the purple and gold, Ball was outstanding, notching a near triple double of 20 points, 12 assists, nine rebounds, two steals, and a block in the heartbreaking loss to The Kings. (57.75 DK points) He logged 36.5 minutes and saw a huge 48% assist percentage, which was obviously a team high, with no other player cracking 20%.
Ball now averages 1.1 DK PPM without James and Rondo, and should be in line for 35-40 minutes tonight, vs The Clippers. (LAC -5.5) They have some of the best on ball defenders in the league, but as a whole, this Clippers’ defense has dropped to 23rd in efficiency. (1.25 opponent +/-) Both of these Los Angeles’ clubs rank in the top ten in pace this season and this contest is expected to be the highest scoring of Friday night. (230 O/U game total) Ball should easily exceed five times value, with a ceiling similar to what we saw against The Kings. He is the best point per dollar value of the slate and an extremely tough player to fade at only $5,900.
PG/SG: Derick Rose: (7,100)
Following a 38.75 DK point night vs The Bulls, Rose now gets arguably the best matchup for PG in the association, The Hawks. Thus far this season, Atlanta has been the fastest team and the 5th worst defense. (1.8 opponent +/-)
Trae Young ranks dead last in defensive real +/- for PGs and Rose should have big night vs the rookie. Jeff Teague (knee) has already been confirmed out and in the five games without Teague and Jimmy Butler (traded), Rose is averaging 38.75 DK PPG. Barring an injury, we should see another 40+ DK point showing from D Rose on his home floor. (1.5 more DK PPG)
SF/PF: Kyle Kuzma: (7,700)
As expected, Kuz led The Lakers in usage, without James. (35.9%) He also saw the most playing time (40) and only trailed Ball in DK points. (47.25 DK points) Overall, he is producing 1.21 DK PPM without James and Rondo.
Tonight, he should play very high minutes again, on his home floor (2.4 more DK PPG), going against a Clippers’ defense that has allowed over 110 points in ten straight games. Kuzma should light them up for 40+ DK points and there is no chance he will cost less than $8,000 for his next game.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,600)
After a four game road trip, Davis is finally back at home. (5.2 more DK PPG) Surprisingly, he didn’t struggle in any of those road contests (63.13 DK PPG) and he has been awesome in his last seven. (65.11 DK PPG) Nikola Mirotic (ankle) will be out again and in the 10 full games he has missed this season, AD is scoring 60.93 DK PPG. Oh, and on top of all of this, Davis will be in a nice spot, vs The Mavs, who he is averaging 61 DK PPG against this season, in two meetings. (1.61 opponent +/-)
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,600)
KAT will be in his barn (6.0 more DK PPG) and taking on a bad Hawks’ defense. (2.11 opponent +/-) They have surrendered the 3rd most RPG and Towns should score over 50 DK points.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (8,200)
Coming off a 45.75 DK point game, Vuc’s price has dropped $700. Yes, The Raptors are a good defensive team (9th in efficiency), but they are dealing with many injuries right now, and are currently an opponent +/- of 1.4 for starting centers. In the 15 homes games that Vucevic has faced a positive opponent +/- this season, he is averaging 42.23 DK PPG.
SG: Bradley Beal: (7,800)
John Wall (heel) will be out, which means this will be Beal’s offense. Plus, Otto Porter (knee) and Dwight Howard (glute, back) are still hurt and The Wizards are expected to also be without Markieff Morris. (back, neck) With all of these players off the floor, Beal is scoring an elite 1.57 DK PPM. The Bulls have improved defensively since Kris Dunn returned (0.7 opponent +/-), but Beal should still stop 40 DK points on his home floor. (40.9 DK PPG in Washington)
PF: Lauri Markkanen: (7,200)
Markkanen is scoring 36.5 DK PPG in his last seven and he should exceed five times value playing up in pace vs The Wizards (3rd in pace and a 2.7 possession increase for The Bulls), who are also one of the league’s worst defenses. (28th in efficiency)
PF/C: Monterzl Harrell: (6,400)
Even including a 18.75 DK point game, Harrell has been great. (33.75 DK PPG in his L7) The matchup really doesn’t get much better for bigs (The Lakers are a 2.66 opponent +/-) and Harrell should have a 30+ DK point night.
C: Ivica Zubac: (5,900)
If JaVale McGee (illness) is still out, I think Zubac is a fine target for GPPs. Most are going to be scared off after last night (13.75 DK points in 20.14 minutes vs The Kings), but prior to this, Big Z was averaging 37.2 DK PPG with McGee out. There is obviously the risk that The Lakers will continue to give Tyson Chandler more run (23.5 DK points and 21 minutes last night), but if they go back to relying on Zubac, he should post a double double vs this Clippers’ front-court. (3.95 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Dennis Schroder: (5,300)
Schroder has seen the biggest usage bump when George has been on the bench. (+9.0%) He scores 1.13 sans PG13 and will likely play 30-35 minutes, as they will need his scoring. Schroder should get 30 DK points in this plus spot vs The Suns (1.63 opponent +/-) and is one of the better mid-tier targets of the night.
SF/PF: Jeff Green: (4,100)
Green went missing last game (9 minutes), but this was because they let Morris see more action. (36 minutes) Now, with Morris expected to be out, Green should jump right back to a 30+ minute role. He is scoring 0.84 DK PPM in this situation and in the last five Green has played 30 minutes or more, he is producing 30.75 DK PPG.
PG/SG: Malik Beasley: (4,000)
Beasley has seen some extra run off the bench in these last three. (29.5 DK PPG in 28 MPG) He is coming off a career night vs The Spurs (39.25 DK points) and is facing that same defense again, but at home.
PG/SG: Tomas Satoranksy: (3,500)
Satoranksy should start for Wall and play 30-35 minutes. In the three games Wall and Howard have both missed this year, Satoransky has been a great value. (29.42 DK PPG and 38 MPG) He should supply 20+ DK points and is a fine punt for all formats.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com