Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for December 31st. For New Year’s Eve, we get a slate of five games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,500)
Davis will bounce back tonight after his down performance vs The Rockets. (47.25 DK points) Before that game, AD was scoring an elite 67.5 DK PPG in his last eight, including an 84.25 DK point explosion vs The Mavs, this past Friday. He will be on his home court (5.5 more DK PPG in 2018), facing The Wolves, who he scored 60.3 DK PPG against back in November.
They allow the 6th most rebounds per game (1.4 opponent +/-) and this game has a healthy total of 227.5 points. Davis is averaging 61.9 DK PPG at home this season when the total is 225 or over, and I am expecting a minimum of 60 DK points from The Brow.
PG: Tyus Jones: (5,000)
With Derick Rose and Jeff Teague both out nursing ankle injuries, Jones got the start yesterday, and scored 34 DK points in 36.27 minutes vs The Heat. Both PGs are listed as doubtful for tonight and not expected to play, keeping Jones in a big role for this excellent matchup vs The Pelicans, who are the 5th worst defense, and the 9th fastest team in the association. (1.95 opponent +/-)
His price has been adjusted to $5,000, but Jones should still exceed five times value, in this prime spot. I am expecting him to approach 30 DK points and Jones is the best point per dollar value of the night.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,300)
Towns is also a great target from this Wolves vs Pelicans matchup. With Teague and Rose out of the lineup last night, KAT took on a 33.5% usage rate, and went off for 86.5 DK points vs The Heat. When these two guards and Jimmy Butler (traded) have been off the court this season, Towns has seen a team high 7.2% usage increase, and is producing 1.61 DK PPM. Going against AD is always worrisome, because of the foul trouble risk, but KAT scored 53.5 DK points against Davis and The Pelicans in their first matchup of this season.
Overall, he is averaging 51 DK PPG in his last three vs Davis. Either way, no matter the matchup or opposing big man, Towns is extremely underpriced for the offensive load he will handle tonight. In 35-40 minutes of work, KAT should top 50 DK points, with a ceiling close to 70, and I will be building around him and Davis for this New Year’s Eve slate.
PF/C: Maxi Kleber: (3,700)
Kleber has been solid as the starter in place of Wesley Matthews (foot) in these last three games. (20.6 DK PPG) Matthews is listed as questionable for tonight, but he is tentatively expected to miss his 4th straight game.
Kleber should start vs The Thunder and even though they are #1 ranked defense in the league, Kleber should grind out 20+ DK points, in close to 30 minutes of action. (0.87 DK PPM) Kleber isn’t the most exciting play by any means, but he is one of the better punts of this slate, that is lacking compelling cheap options.
PG/SG: James Harden: (11,400)
Even in a tough spot vs The Grizzlies (0.3 opponent +/-), Harden should still exceed five times value. He has been unstoppable in these last five (65.9 DK PPG) with Chris Paul (hamstring) out and even with a healthy CP3 around, Harden still scored 69.5 DK points vs The Grizzlies in their first matchup of this season. I prefer AD, but Harden is right behind him in overall projection, and should come with a lower ownership in GPPs. (13-16% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
PG: Kyrie Irving: (8,900)
Irving has shown no signs of slowing down. He is averaging 50.42 DK PPG in his last nine and The Spurs are currently rating as an above average spot for PGs. (2.14 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: DeMar DeRozan: (8,300)
DeRozan has been very up and down, but his usage goes up a team high 3.5% when Rudy Gay (out, wrist) is off the court. He scores 1.28 DK PPG with the added usage and DeRozan should score over 40 DK points, despite this being a tough spot vs Boston. (0.3 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Julius Randle: (7,900)
After three pedestrian games in a row, Randle has looked much better in these last two (44.9 DK PPG), and The Wolves are a decent matchup for PFs. (1.71 opponent +/-)
C: Clint Capela: (7,400)
Capela is just too cheap right now. He is averaging 40.2 DK PPG at home this season and only needs 37 DK points at his current salary for five times value. The Grizzlies are usually a really tough matchup for centers, but they have been vulnerable as of late. (2.03 opponent +/-) When he has gone against an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or more, Capela is scoring 39.9 DK PPG this season.
SG/SF: Andrew Wiggins: (5,900)
Wiggins is a very annoying player to roster in DFS, but his usage has increased 4.2% when Rose, Teague, and Butler have been off the floor. He scores 0.98 DK PPM in this situation and will play heavy minutes, in this strong game environment. His floor isn’t the most stable, but Wiggins should top 30 DK points tonight.
PG: Elfrid Payton: (5,400)
Payton (finger) will make his return to action tonight vs The Wolves. Given his injury was a finger, Payton should jump right into a 30+ minute role. He is averaging 26.1 DK PPG this season and this should be an easier matchup than usual, with The Wolves beat up. At only $5,400, Payton is one of my favorite mid-tier options of this five game slate.
PG/SG: Derrick White: (4,500)
White has scored over 30 DK points in back to back games and his usage increases 3.2% when Gay is off the court. The matchup is bad (BOS is 0.41 opponent +/-), but White should reach five times value.
PG/SG: Bryn Forbes: (4,200)
Forbes has scored at least 20 DK points in six straight games. He has played 32.6 MPG in these last two and should again, with Gay out. Forbes lacks upside, but is in play, solely based off playing time.
SG/SF: Josh Okogie: (3,800)
Yesterday, with Teague and Rose sitting, Okogie played 23.5 minutes off the bench, and scored 21 DK points vs The Heat. He should see a similar role tonight and in the last five he has logged 20 minutes or more, Okogie is scoring 19.8 DK PPG.
PF/C: Kevon Looney: (3,700)
Looney has supplied over 20 DK points in five straight games and should continue this streak in an awesome matchup vs The Suns. (3.07 opponent +/-)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com