Welcome back guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for December 4th. Tonight, is a solid slate, with five games to target. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (9,000)
Quietly, Vucevic is having a stellar season. He is averaging 45.7 DK PPG for the year and is scoring 51.6 DK PPG in his last nine. He has put up a double double in ten of his last 14 games and tonight, he should notch another one, going against The Heat, who have allowed the 5th most RPG.
Hassan Whiteside may be big, but he is a lazy defender, and this Miami defense is currently presenting an opponent +/- of 2.65 points for starting centers. When Vuc has faced an opponent +/- of 2.0 points or more this season (12 games), he is averaging 46.1 DK PPG, and he should get us over 45 DK points on Tuesday night.
PG: Derick White: (4,200)
He may come off the bench, but White is The Spurs’ PG who has logged the most minutes in their last two games. He has seen 32.8 MPG, compared to the starter, Bryn Forbes’ 22 MPG. White has been very effective with the extended run, averaging 28.25 DK PPG. He is scoring 0.75 DK PPM and in the seven games he has played at least 20 minutes this season, White is producing 24.14 DK PPG. At his current salary, this would be right under a six times value return.
Assuming the minutes continue, he should score roughly 25 DK points, vs a Jazz defense, that has been a solid matchup for PGs all season long. (1.34 opponent +/-) White is a fine target for all formats on Tuesday night.
PF/C: Kelly Olynyk: (3,900)
After being buried in the back of this bench, HC Eric Spoelstra has brought Olynyk back into the rotation. His minutes have gone up in each of his last five games, from 16 minutes, all the way up 29.2 minutes, this past Sunday. He has been great in these past two, averaging 31.13 DK PPG, which has helped The Heat to back to back wins, over some legitimate opponents. (Pelicans and Jazz) Olynyk only trailed Dwayne Wade in +/- during their win over The Jazz on Sunday (+18) and he should continue to see 25-30 minutes off the bench tonight, vs The Magic.
The Magic have been a solid defensive group (0.64 opponent +/-), but there really isn’t any matchup that would stop me from rostering Olynyk at this cheap of a price. He has always been a strong fantasy player (1.0 DK PPM this season) and will always produce if he sees decent run. Including last season, in the last 14 games Olynyk has seen a minimum of 20 minutes, he is supplying 30.5 DK PPG. I am expecting at least five times value from Olynyk tonight, with a ceiling over 40 DK points.
SF: Josh Jackson: (5,300)
Jackson is the primary beneficiary with Devin Booker (knee) and T.J. Warren (ankle) both out. In the one game that both of these starters missed this season, which was just this past Friday, Jackson started at SF, and scored 33.5 DK points in a season high 38 minutes. Booker returned in their next game, on Sunday, but was only able to last 11 minutes before exiting, helping Jackson to another solid night. (29.5 DK points vs The Lakers)
The second year SF out of Kansas is now averaging 30.5 DK PPG in his last three games. Sans Warren and Booker, Jackson will draw another start tonight, and should play 35-40 minutes vs The Kings. He leads this team in usage in this situation (29.3%), while also scoring 0.93 DK PPM. His price tag has hit it a season high, but Jackson remains a strong mid-tier target, that brings both safety and upside, in this high scoring game. (223.5 point O/U game total, which is the highest total of the night)
C: Rudy Gobert: (8,600)
Gobert has been eating, scoring over 48 DK points in four of his last five games. (46.7 DK PPG) He has posted a team high 23.7% rebound rate and is generating 1.37 DK PPM during this stretch. Tonight, he should continue to dominate, facing a Spurs’ defense, that has been weak inside. (1.2 opponent +/-)
PG: De’Aaron Fox: (7,500)
Fox is averaging 37.9 DK PPG in his last two and this Suns’ defense is the second worst unit in the league, that is also missing two of it’s top three players. (2.64 opponent +/-) This Kings Suns game has the highest total of the night (223.5 points) and in the 18 Kings’ games that have had a total of 220 points or more this season, Fox is scoring 36.8 DK PPG. The price tag is about correct, but Fox is one of the better high end ways to attack this game.
PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (7,200)
Sabonis struggled on Saturday (22.75 DK points in 24 minutes vs The Kings), but he was dealing with a back injury, and should be healthier tonight vs The Bulls. (3.09 opponent +/-) Even including this down outing, Sabonis is scoring 39.4 DK PPG in his last eight.
C: Deandre Ayton: (6,500)
Ayton has struggled a little as of late (three straight games under 30 DK points), but he is at home (36.3 DK PPG), and The Kings are a great spot for centers. (3.4 opponent +/- and 4th most RPG allowed)
SG/SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic: (5,800)
Bogdanovic has put up at least 20 real points in three straight games. (35.6 DK PPG) He should top 30 DK points vs this Suns’ defense that will be without Warren.
PF: Marvin Bagley: (5,700)
If he is able to play (questionable, back), Bagley is a strong target at this price. Prior to missing one game, the rookie was scoring 34.5 DK PPG in his last six and as I keep preaching, The Suns should be even weaker than usual on defense tonight. (1.75 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Terrence Ross: (5,000)
Ross has been an exceptional six man for The Magic as of late. (28.5 DK PPG in his last five) He should approach five times value in this slightly positive matchup vs The Heat. (1.62 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Jae Crowder: (5,000)
Crowder has scored 35 DK PPG across his last two games and he was inserted into the starting five on Sunday. He should remain a starter and is a strong value candidate tonight vs The Spurs. (1.92 opponent +/-)
PG: Elie Okobo: (4,400)
Okobo’s production has dwindled in his last two games (14.4 DK PPG), but he is going to have to play right around 30 minutes again, with Booker out. He should start at point and be able to get over 20 DK points, with him scoring 0.8 DK PPM this season. Even with only five games, I think Okbo will come with a lower ownership, just due to recency bias. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)
PG/SG: Jamal Crawford: (3,900)
With Booker and Warren out this past Friday, Crawford shined off the bench, with a season high 27 DK points, in 30.5 minutes. His usage was at 26.9% in this game and if he see’s 25+ minutes, the veteran scorer should out produce this soft salary.
*Please note most of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com