DraftKings NBA Picks – December 4th

What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for December 4th, 2017. Monday night’s slate is a huge slate with 11 games to attack . Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

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Top Pick:

PF/C: Demarcus Cousins: (11,000) His last game with PF Anthony Davis (pelvis) out on Saturday night wasn’t an explosion (50 DK points vs POR), but I think we must go right back to Cousins again tonight with Davis already confirmed out. Even with Saturday’s average game included, Cousins is averaging 65.4 DK points in the two full games AD has missed this year. In these contests he leads this team with a massive 39.5% usage rate and is scoring 1.68 DK points per minute, which is a large difference from his usual 1.46 DK points per minute this season. Tonight, he is a decent spot going against The Warriors, who have a current opponent +/- of 1.47 points to starting centers.

Anytime a player faces The Warriors there is always blowout concerns, but I think this game stays close enough throughout that Boogie sees his normal 35-40 minute role in this big game. (-9.5 GSW) It is also a plus that this game is being played on his home floor, where he is averaging 3.2 more DK points a game this season. I am expecting at least 55 DK points out of Cousins, with tremendous upside tonight. It is possible that his average game on Saturday keeps his ownership at modest number (17-20% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), but regardless of ownership, Boogie is the player I want to build around on Monday night.

Value Picks:

PG: Rajon Rondo: (5,000) Rondo has been outstanding in his last two games, averaging 39.5 DK points in 28.5 minutes a game. He has picked up a double double and flirted with a triple double in both games, posting a team high 44.7% assist percentage. One of these games him and The Pelicans were playing with Davis, which as I said above, is the case tonight with Davis already ruled out with a pelvis injury. Oddly enough his usage doesn’t jump with Davis off the floor, but his assist percentage sky rockets a 11.2%, helping him lead this Pelicans squad with a 7.8 DK point differential in the minutes he has logged with Davis off the floor. Rondo’s individual matchup isn’t perfect vs The Warriors (-0.36 opponent +/-), but the pace increase is a nice boost for him (2.1 possession increase) and the overall narrative of playing the defending champs on his home floor is definitely something Rondo is thinking about.

If you have been following The NBA closely over the last ten seasons, no matter what situation he is in or what team he is on, Rondo always rises to the occasion against the best teams in the league. It is just the type of player he is. His minutes haven’t been very high, but in 28-30 minutes, I think we see Rondo hit five times value, with 30-35 DK point upside, as he is averaging 1.4 DK points per minute over these last two games. His price is creeping up, but he is still a nice value at only $5,000, and is another way to get exposure to this Pelicans Warriors game that has one of the highest totals of this big slate. (227 O/U game total)

SF/PF: Michael Beasley: (3,500) Instead of going with the bigger Kyle O’Quinn, The Knicks opted to starting Beasley in place of the injured Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) on Sunday. He had a very solid showing, putting up 21 points, three rebounds, one assist, and one block in 28 minutes vs The Magic (26.25 DK points), on a ridiculous 36.9% usage rate.  Porzingis and SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (leg) have already been confirmed out for tonight and all signs are pointing to Beasley remaining in the starting five vs The Pacers.

This is a very nice spot for him, as The Pacers currently rate at a higher 4.32 point opponent +/- for starting PFs. He is scoring 0.91 DK points per minute this season, and in 25-30 minutes, we should see Beasley crush value at this cheap price tag once again. This is one of the first games of the night to tip off and if he is confirmed the starter again, Beasley is a core value play for this 11 game slate.

PF/C: Enes Kanter: (6,200) Kanter also was a great fantasy play with Porzingis sitting the last game, scoring 18 points, with 16 rebounds, two assists, and a steal in 31 minutes vs The Magic. He has had some down games in the contests Porzingis has missed this season, but the move of putting Beasley in at the four over a bigger player like O’Quinn, with the combination of Hardway Jr. also being out, really helped Kanter and his rates. In the loss yesterday, he posted a 23.1% usage and a team high 30.2% rebound percentage. Assuming The Knicks run out the same starting five, which I believe they will, Kanter should see very similar rates on Monday night. It is a smaller sample size of only 41 minutes, but in those minutes he has played with Beasley on the floor, with THJ and Porzi off, he has seen a 6.8% usage bump, along with a 5.8% rebound percentage increase, leading to an excellent 48 DK points per 36 minutes average.

Not only should his rates be very high, but this matchup vs The Pacers is awesome for him, as they have allowed the second most DK points to centers this year, at a high current opponent +/- of 6.97 points. I mean even with a healthy Porzingis and THJ playing with him, Kanter still scored 32.5 DK points vs this same Pacers team earlier this season. 32.5 DK points is right around what he needs tonight to meet value, and I think we see him put up 35-40 DK points with this Knicks team shorthanded. His low current 5-8% projected ownership level (via Fantasy Labs) is odd to me and could obviously change, but either way, at $6,200, Kanter is a very strong play that I will be using in both cash games and GPPs tonight.

Also Consider: Kenneth Faired/Mason Plumlee (both very underpriced with Jokic out. Plumlee is the stronger value at the cheaper price tag),  E’Twaun Moore (34 and 36 minutes last two games), Gary Harris (5.9% usage jump with Milsap and Jokic off the court), Jamal Murray (also sees a nice 4.3% usage increase without Milsap and Jokic, put up 44 DK points in 33 minutes last game), Elfrid Payton (still too cheap and this is a nice spot vs The Hornets, who are at a 2.18 opponent +/- for starting PGs), David Nwaba (27.25 DK points in his return on Friday), Spencer Dinwiddie, Ersan Ilyasova, Donovan Mitchell, and Alec Burks (nice value if Hood stays out, is averaging 44.5 DK points over these last two with Hood sitting).

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