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DraftKings NBA Picks – December 5th

What’s up everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for December 5th. Wednesday night is a full slate, with ten games.  As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,500)

It’s just another day of NBA DFS and another day that AD is underpriced. For five times value at $11,500, Davis needs to score 57.5 DK points, which he has done in five straight games. (65.7 DK PPG) He is also at home, where he is providing 4.5 more DK PPG, in a solid spot, vs The Mavs. (1.68 opponent +/-)

In his last 15 meetings with Dallas, Davis has exceeded expectations by 2.3 DK PPG. As usual, I am projecting him for over 60 DK points and believe he is the best stud to target on Wednesday night.

Value Picks:

SG: Bradley Beal: (8,400)

Beal was terrific on Monday night, scoring a season best 54 DK points vs The Knicks, and he should have another big game, with John Wall (personal) out tonight. When Wall and Dwight Howard (glute) have been off the court this season, Beal has led The Wizards with a 27.9% usage rate, which is a 2.0% increase from his usual rate. He is scoring 1.1 DK PPM in this scenario and he should have to log right around 40 minutes, in this gorgeous matchup vs The Hawks.

So far this season, Atlanta is the 7th worst defense and the fastest team in the league. (2.19 opponent +/-) Washington is actually even worse on defense, ranking as the 4th worst and they are also the 8th fastest club. This has resulted in this contest having the highest O/U game total of Wednesday’s full slate (231.5 points) and a small spread of only four points. Beal should top 40 DK points and has a ceiling over 50, making him one of the best high end values of this full slate.

PG/SG: Austin Rivers: (3,400) 

This Wizards’ coaching staff prefers to bring Kelly Oubre off the bench, which should put Rivers in a starting role tonight, with Wall sitting. He sees a 3.9% usage boost without Wall and Howard this season, while also producing 0.71 DK PPM. This may not seem appealing, but when Rivers has been forced into a bigger role this season, he has been a solid fantasy option.

In his last three games, that he has seen 25 minutes or more, Rivers has averaged 21.9 DK PPG. To add to extra minutes and usage he will see, the matchup couldn’t be much better than playing up in pace vs The Hawks. (2.48 opponent +/-) He should get us over 20 DK points and also brings a ceiling around 35, making him a great investment at only $3,400.

PF/C: Dwayne Dedmon: (3,900)

Dedmon got the start on Monday and scored 30 DK points across 31 minutes in the loss to The Warriors. The former starting center, Alex Len, only logged 4 minutes, and didn’t score a single DK point.

It’s hard to expect over 30 minutes, but if starting again, Dedmon should play 25+, in this above average spot vs The Wizards (1.77 opponent +/-), and easily outproduce his current price. At only $3,900, and with a starting role, Dedmon is a fine gamble, that gives you another piece of this matchup between two of The NBA’s worst defenses.

Also Consider:

C: Joel Embiid: (10,500)

This is the cheapest Embiid has been in nearly two weeks and he is in a great matchup, vs The Raptors. (3.96 opponent +/-) He scored 54.8 DK points against them earlier this year and this a big game between two of the best in The East, that comes with a smaller spread (TOR -6), and high total. (229 points, which is the second highest total of the slate) In the 11 Sixers’ games that have come with a total over 220 points and a single digit spread, Embiid is scoring 58.9 DK PPG.

SF/PF: Kawhi Leonard: (9,300)

Leonard produced 54.8 DK points vs The Sixers in their first meeting of this year and in the last six Raptors’ games that have been decided by less than ten points, The Klaw is averaging 46.4 DK PPG.

C: Nikola Jokic: (9,200)

Jokic was unbelievable in Monday’s win over The Raptors (66.75 DK points) and his usage rises a ridiculous 8.5% when Gary Harris (hip) and Will Barton (groin) are off the court. He is a very unpredictable player, but Jokic has massive upside with the increased usage, especially in this strong spot vs The Magic. (2.98 opponent +/-)

C: Nikola Vucevic: (8,700)

Vuc underperformed last night vs The Heat (40 DK points in 33 minutes), but The Magic ran away with it at the end, and he is still scoring 53.6 DK PPG in his past five. Tonight, he gets a nice matchup, against The Nuggets. (2.09 opponent +/-)

C: Marc Gasol: (8,600)

Center is flooded with options on Wednesday, which should lead to Gasol being very under owned, coming off a down game. (26.5 DK points vs The Sixers on Sunday) Before this, Gasol was eating in his last six (51.4 DK PPG), and he couldn’t ask for a better matchup than this one vs The Clippers. (4.34 opponent +/-) This is the second best overall matchup for any player in action on Wednesday.

PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (7,400)

Outside of the 22.5 DK point showing vs The Wizards on Saturday, which was the second night of a back to back, and the first game after a devastating double OT loss, Russell is averaging 49.6 DK PPG in his last four. He has topped 30 minutes in four of his last five and if he can manage to log 30+ again, D Loading will always bring 40-45 DK point upside, no matter the matchup. (The Thunder are 1st in defensive efficency)

PG/SG: Jamal Murray: (6,500)

Murray will have to play around 40 minutes with Harris out. This matchup vs The Magic is solid (1.36 opponent +/-) and in the first two games without btoh Harris and Barton, Murray generated 34.9 DK PPG.

PF/C: Markieff Morris: (6,400)

This season, Morris has seen the biggest bump in value, when Howard and Wall have been off the floor. All of his rates increase, specifically his assist percentage (+4.8%), helping Morris to score 1.1 DK PPM, which is a 0.3 DK PPM jump from his average for the year. He has been great playing a bigger role off the bench with Howard out in these last eight games (31.5 DK PPG) and he should bully this horrible interior Hawks’ defense, that is supplying the most RPG. (2.6 opponent +/-) One of these Wizards’ front-court players is going to smash and I think it will be Morris, with 35-40 DK points.

SF/PF: Otto Porter Jr: (6,100)

After missing one game, Porter had a strong night in the win over The Knicks on Monday. (34.75 DK points in 32 minutes) He scores 1.14 DK PPM when Wall and Howard have been missing this season (0.2 DK PPM increase) and in 30-35 minutes, Porter, like most of The Wizards, should return value in this excellent matchup against The Hawks. (1.88 opponent +/-)

SG/SF: Terrence Ross: (5,000)

Ross is just too cheap for his recent production. (30 DK PPG in his last five) He should definitely approach value in this competitive environment. (DEN -5.5)

PG: Derick White: (4,200)

White should bounce back tonight, in this prime spot, vs The Lakers. (2.29 opponent +/-) He is producing 25.4 DK PPG in his last three.

PG: George Hill: (3,700)

He was supposed to be limited to around 20 minutes on Monday, but Hill ended up logging 35.22 minutes vs The Nets. The result wasn’t great (16.25 DK points), but this was only his second game in nearly a month and he drew the start at SG. He still has a serviceable DK PPM average this season (0.8 DK PPM) and with another 30+ minute role, it’s hard to envision the veteran not achieving five times value at this season low price.

SG: Malik Beasley: (3,500)

After Harris exited on Monday (only nine minutes), Beasley played 26.4 minutes and scored 20.5 DK points vs The Raptors. He scores 0.7 DK PPM this season and if he was to start, Beasley would need to be considered. In the last four he has played 20 minutes or more, Beasley has scored 24.9 DK PPG.

*Please note most of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

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