Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for December 6th, 2017. Tonight’s slate is a huge slate with 10 games to attack . Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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SF/PF: Kevin Durant: (10,100) Warriors’ starting PG Steph Curry will be out tonight and for at least the next two weeks with an ankle injury. Back up SF Patrick McCaw (nose) will also sit this one out and starting PF Draymond Green is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. Even if Green is in, Durant is going to see a much bigger role going forward with Curry sidelined. There have been no full games Durant has played without Curry this year, but in the minutes KD has played with Curry on the bench this season, he has seen a 2.7% usage increase and is leading this Warriors squad with a 31.8% usage rate, while scoring 1.35 DK points per minute.
Even with Curry out, The Warriors have one of the highest implied team totals of the night currently sitting at 110.75 points, but the real positive of this situation is that this game should stay close throughout with this Warriors team on the road and beaten up. They are currently only 4.5 point favorites over The Hornets, which is one of the smallest spreads that I have seen for a Warriors game this season. In this competitive game, Durant should be forced to log right around 35 minutes and I am expecting 50+ DK points out of him, with huge upside in this great matchup vs The Hornets, who currently are a 3.39 opponent +/- for opposing starting SFs. I expect Green to play, but if he doesn’t, Durant’s role would grow even more, pushing his ceiling to new heights. DraftKings has adjusted his price with Curry out, but at $10,100, Durant is still one of the better high end spends of this ten game slate.
PG: Rajon Rondo: (5,500) I know I keep recommending him lately, but until Rondo sees his price over $6,000, he is in play every night. Over his last three games, he has been outstanding, posting a double double in each contest, while averaging 39.5 DK points a night. His usage will never be that high (15.8%), but his assist rate has been exceptional during this stretch, at a team high 44.4%, which is absolutely dominate, when you consider the next highest Pelican assist percentage is under 20%.
Tonight, he will playing slightly up in pace vs The Nuggets, who have been the 5th worst rated defense in The NBA over their last three games. They are currently a 2.77 opponent +/- for starting PGs, and this number is possibly a modest rating, with both PF Paul Milsap and center Nikola Jokic both out for The Nuggets. He is currently scoring 1.25 DK points per minute and with 28-30 minutes, Rondo should produce five to six times value again tonight.
PF/C: Kenneth Faried: (5,000) Faried has been the main beneficiary with Jokic and Milsap out these last two games, averaging 29.25 DK points and 27.5 minutes a game. In these starts, he is scoring just over a DK point per minute and is seeing a 9.7 DK point differential. This evening, he is in a nice spot vs The Pelicans, who have been weaker inside with The Brow out, rating as the fourth worst defense in the league over their last three games, at a 3.13 opponent +/- for starting PFs.
With 25-30 minutes, he should exceeded five times value, in this Nuggets Pelicans game that is arguably the best game of the night to target, with its slate high O/U game total of 221.5 points, a small spread of five points. Back up PF Trey Lyles is also worth a look at only $3,700, as he has top 20 DK points off the bench in these last two games, but overall, Faried is the safest value in this Denver front court and is a viable play in all formats at $5,000.
PF/C: Zach Randolph: (5,300) Z Bo has stepped up his game in his last two games, scoring 48.75 DK points vs The Bulls last Friday night and then 33.25 DK points vs The Bucks on Saturday. He played 32 and then 34 minutes in these contests, and his minutes should stay over 30 again tonight, with starting center Willie Cauley-Stein out with a back injury. Players like Kosta Koufos will mix in this front court, but Randolph is the big who should see the most playing time, especially at the five spot in the small ball lineups, which is for sure something they will do often tonight vs The Cavs, who are a team that live off smaller lineups.
This Cav defense has been getting better, but they are still very vulnerable inside, rating as a 4.43 opponent +/-. He is scoring 1.07 DK points per minute this season as a King and with a projection of 30 minutes, Randolph should smash value his current price tag, particularly if he can manage a double double. He is clearly miss priced at only $5,300 and will be a chalky option, but in my best advice, I think we should eat the chalk and lock Randolph in tonight.
Also Consider: Trey Lyles (above), Gary Harris (usage has been up with Jokic and Milsap out and this is a great matchup vs The Pelicans, at a 3.42 opponent +/-), Mason Plumlee (should start at center again and has upside, but the foul risk is concerning vs Cousins), Jordan Bell (if Green is out. He scored 35 DKpoints in 26,4 minutes in the only game Green missed this season), Garrett Temple, Jonathon Simmons, Will Barton, Jrue Holiday, Rudy Gay (got the start Monday with Kyle Anderson out and was great putting up 36.5 DK points in a season high 31.4 minutes. He is a nice value assuming he starts again), Shaun Livingston/Andre Iguodola (McCaw was the one who started at PG and did most of the ball handling last time was Curry out, but with McCaw now out as well, it should be these two who do most the ball handling, along with KD. Update: Quinn Cook will start and is a viable punt, but there is definitely risk in his minutes), Kelly Olynyk (Whiteside is still out, Kelly is averaging 28 DK points over his last three games), Jamal Murray, E’Twaun Moore (31 DK points in 36 minutes over his last three games. Is only $4,200 and can be played as a SG or SF), Dante Cunningham, and Elfrid Payton.