gravatar

DraftKings NBA Picks – December 7th

Happy Friday everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for December 7th. Tonight, is a full slate, with ten games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.

Top Pick:

PG/SG: Stephen Curry: (10,000)

Tonight, The Warriors have a date with The Bucks on their home floor. This is a huge game for Milwaukee and Vegas is expecting a shootout between two of the best teams in the association. (239.5 O/U game total, the highest of Friday night) Not only is there going to be a ton of points scored, but The Warriors are actually underdogs, with The Bucks favored by two points. It’s rare to see The Warriors playing in a game with this small of a spread, let alone being a dog. On Wednesday night, in his second game back, Curry looked like his old self, hitting nine threes, and scoring 69.25 DK points, in 33.5 minutes, vs The Cavs. Now, he faces this Bucks’ team, that plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the league, and more importantly, allows the 2nd most made 3PPG this season.

I always love to target The Warriors when they enter a rare hostile game environment like this and over the last three years, when Curry has been a road underdog, he is averaging 52.2 DK PPG. Furthermore, in his last eight games, that have had a single digit spread and Curry has played up in pace (3.5 possession increase tonight), he is supplying 53.2 DK PPG. He should crack 50 DK points, with a massive ceiling over 70, and I think Curry is a fine spend for both cash games and GPPs.

Value Picks:

PF/C: Bam Adebayo: (4,200)

Adebayo will draw the start at center tonight, with Hassan Whiteside missing this game, due to the birth of his child. Adebayo has been very steady recently as a reserve (28.1 DK PPG in his last six) and he should smash value with a starting role. He scores 1.1 DK PPM this season and he should have to play at least 25 minutes, in this dream spot vs The Suns, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency, and 8th most RPG allowed. (3.49 opponent +/-)

If we look through his game log, the former Kentucky Wild Cat has excelled when he has seen a role over 25 minutes this year, averaging 29.2 DK PPG in those five instances, which would be a tremendous seven times value return at his current salary. Don’t over think this one, Adebayo is an elite value play, that needs to be all of your lineups on Friday night.

PF/C: Kelly Olynyk: (4,000)

With Whiteside missing, I will also be attacking Olynyk. After being a DNP on a few occasions, Olynyk was inserted back into Miami’s rotation two weeks ago, and he has been very solid with the extra playing time, averaging 25.3 DK PPG in his last five, with an even better, 29.3 DK PPG in his last three. Just like Adebayo, Olynyk is a strong fantasy player (1.0 DK PPM) and with roughly 25 minutes off the bench, with the chance for more, if HC Eric Spoelstra lets Olynyk and Adebayo play together, Kelly should easily get over 20 DK points in this gorgeous matchup vs The Suns.

The bottom line is, that Whiteside and his lackadaisical tendencies hurt this team, and Speolstra knows that, hence why he has been giving both, Olynyk and Adebayo, more playing time as of late. They are both great values in my eyes and I will be stacking the two Heat big men together in the same lineup.

PF/C: Mike Muscala: (3,800)

Joel Embiid (rest) will get the night off, which should put either Muscala or Amir Johnson as The Sixers’ starting center. Regardless if he is the starter or not, Muscala is the big man to target in this situation. He has been very productive in his last four (20 DK PPG) and is averaging 0.8 DK PPM this season.

He should have to log a minimum of 25 minutes, which is more than enough time for him to exceed value at $3,800. At this cost, he only needs 19 DK points to return value, and in the six games he has topped 25 minutes this season, Muscala has generated 21 DK PPG. I prefer to target The Heat frontcourt, but Muscala, is also a very viable punt play tonight.

Also Consider:

PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,000)

Playing against Marc Gasol and company is never ideal (0.51 opponent +/-), but this price tag is just silly, for Davis on his home court. He is averaging 62.4 DK PPG in NOLA this year, which would be a 5.7 return at $11,000. He is scoring 63.4 DK PPG in his last 15 starts and having Nikola Mirotic back in the starting five, over Julius Randle, will be a solid boost for The Brow. He scores 1.6 DK PPM with Mirotic on the floor this season, which is a sizable difference, from the 1.4 DK PPM he scores with Randle.

SF/PF: LeBron James: (10,800)

James is fresh off a 61.75 DK point game vs The Spurs and tonight, he faces that same club, just on the road. Brandon Ingram (ankle) will be out and when he and Rajon Rondo (hand) have been off the floor, James has seen the biggest usage increase on The Lakers. (+2.7%) He is scoring 1.6 DK PPM in this scenario and should play high minutes, with this game presenting a single digit spread (LA -1), and high total. (224 points, second highest of the night) Expect 55-65 DK points from The King on Friday night. (SA is a 1.69 opponent +/- and they are second to last in defensive efficiency)

SG/SF: Jimmy Butler: (7,400)

“Jimmy Buckets” should be in full effect tonight, with Embiid resting. In the 110 minutes Butler has played without Embiid and Markelle Fultz (shoulder), he has taken on a 10.6% usage increase, and is scoring 1.42 DK PPM. The Pistons are a strong defense (0.41 opponent +/-), but I think the usage Butler will see, out trumps any possible matchup. He should score over 40 DK points and is an awesome target for all formats.

C: Tristan Thompson: (7,300)

It’s crazy to think we are paying this much for Thompson, but he really has been that consistent. (four double double and 43.6 DK PPG in his last four) Tonight, he is in a great spot for centers, vs The Kings, who are allowing the 4th most RPG. (3.88 opponent +/-)

PG/SG: Jamay Murray: (7,200)

With Gary Harris (hip) out, Murray put up 50.5 DK points in 41 regulation minutes vs The Magic on Wednesday. (32.7% usage rate) Harris will remain out and Murray should reach five times value, vs The Hornets. (1.17 opponent +/-)

SF/PF: Kyle Kuzma: (6,800)

Kuz has scored over 40 DK points in three straight and sees a 2.3% usage bump without Ingram. If he can see 35-40 minutes, which is likely, in this tight spread, Kuzma has a chance of producing another 40+ night. (36.4 DK PPG in the first three without Rondo and Ingram)

PF: Lauri Markkanen: (6,300)

In his second game back, Markkanen went off for 43.5 DK points in 32.1 minutes vs The Pacers. Bobby Portis (knee) will remain out, so we can expect 30+ minutes again for Markkanen tonight. He should approach five times value, even vs this #1 ranked Thunder defense. (-0.05 opponent +/-)

PF/C: Marvin Bagley: (5,300)

Bagley is returning at a great time, for this matchup vs The Cavs, who are the worst defense in The NBA. Prior to hurting his back, Bagley was scoring 34.5 DK PPG in his last six.

PG/SG: Alec Burks: (4,100)

Burks is averaging 23.1 DK PPG as a Cav and he should be able to get over 20 DK points, in this high total, vs The Kings. (221 points, third highest of the night)

PG/SG: Josh Hart: (3,600)

If Hart starts for Ingram, he needs to be considered. He scores 0.82 DK PPM without Ingram/Rondo this season and would have to play 25-30 minutes, which would likely result in 20+ DK points, vs this Spurs’ defense, that is second to last in efficiency. He averaged 29.25 DK PPG and 32.3 MPG in the first three, that both Ingram and Rondo missed this season.

*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com

PLAY THIS LINEUP

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.