Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 10th, 2018. Tonight we get a decent slate with six games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo: (10,800) With a ton of value out there tonight, attacking The Greek Freak at a slight discount makes a ton of sense in this nice matchup vs The Magic. This Magic defense is the fourth worst rated defense in the league this season, that is a current opponent +/- of 2.3 points. He didn’t have a great game in his first meeting vs The Magic this season (37.3 DK points), but I think this game was a fluke and that we can expect 50+ DK points out of him tonight. Starting PG Malcolm Brogdon is still out with the quad injury and in seven games Giannis has started with Brogdon out this season, he is averaging 53.3 DK PPG.
At this salary, he needs to score 54 DK points to reach value, which is something Vegas thinks is very likely tonight, with him currently being the best value on DraftKings in terms of Vegas props, with an implied DK score of 54.95 points. He has the highest projection for a player in action and I think it is a wise move to build around the Greek tonight.
PG/SG: D.J. Augustin: (4,700) In The Magic’s first game after trading away PG Elfrid Payton, I thought they will would split the PG minutes pretty evenly between Augustin and Shelvin Mack, but this wasn’t the case at all, with Augustin logging 35 minutes as the starter, compared to only 22 for Mack off the bench. Augustin, as he always does when he gets the chance to start, was excellent helping this team get a win, putting up a near double double of 18 points, nine assists, three rebounds, and two steals vs The Hawks. (40.25 DK points) Tonight, and going forward, he should remain the starting PG for The Magic.
His matchup vs The Bucks isn’t as strong as the one he saw vs The Hawks on Thursday, currently rating as an 0.58 opponent +/- for starting PGs, but he is averaging 0.85 DK PPM this season and with 30-35 minutes of work, in this competitive game (MIL -5.5), Augustin should easily exceed five times value once again tonight. Also, being able to play him as a SG is very valuable, as I want to roster multiple PGs for this slate.
PG: Patty Mills: (3,800) After starting PG Dejounte Murray exited last game with a sprained ankle (played 13 minutes), Mills was huge off the bench, scoring 18 points to go with three rebounds, one assist, one steal, and one block in only 17 minutes of action vs The Suns. (28.75 DK points) This game was a massive 48 point blowout win for The Spurs and he is going to have to log way more minutes tonight with Murray and back up PG Tony Parker (back) both out. He is the only true PG left on this roster and with the starting role, he should have to approach 30 minutes tonight vs The Warriors. He is scoring 0.78 DK PPM with Murray, Parker, and SF Rudy Gay (heel) off the court this season, which is a solid 0.2 increase from his season average. With 25-30 minutes, which could be a tentative projection if this game stays close throughout (GS -10.5), Mills should have no issues smashing value, playing way up in pace (6.0 possession increase) in this positive matchup. (3.63 opponent +/-)
Mills is the type of player who always benefits from playing at a faster pace and in the seven games this season that he has seen a pace bump of 6.0 possessions or more, he is averaging 20.36 DK PPG, which are all games that he came off the bench, with either Parker or Murray healthy enough to start. The bottom line is that even if he wasn’t starting with these guards out, you could still make a case for Mills at this cheap of a salary in this matchup. This $3,800 price tag doesn’t in any way reflect the role he will have tonight and he is the best value of this slate, that needs to be in your lineups.
PG: Jerian Grant: (5,000) Grant is going to have to play big minutes tonight, with PG Kris Dunn (head) still out and now SG Zach LaVine out, who is being rested on the second night of a back to back. Furthermore, his usage should grow, with PF Nikola Mirotic gone and traded away to The Pelicans last week. Last night, in 38 minutes of action, Grant scored 42.5 DK points in the win over The Wolves. He should see a similar work load tonight vs The Wizards, who are without their starting PG John Wall (knee) and are rating as a current opponent +/- of 2.82 points.
In all the time he has played without Dunn, LaVine, and Mirotic, Grant has seen small bumps in his rates and is scoring 28.5 DK points per 36 minutes of action. 28.5 DK points is right around what I am expecting tonight, with a similar ceiling to what we saw last night vs The Wolves. He is a very strong value play that needs to be considered in all formats on Saturday night.
Also Consider: Justin Holiday (just like with Grant, his minutes and rates should expand tonight. He is scoring 28 DK points per 36 minutes in this situation and is the best SF value of this slate), Marquesse Chriss (with center Tyson Chandler out last game, Chriss drew the start and logged 29 minutes in the loss to The Spurs. He only scored 21.5 DK points, but he is averaging 0.9 DK PPM this season and even though this matchup also isn’t that great vs The Nuggets, it is hard to envision him not meeting value with these kind of minutes, especially when you consider he scored 32.5 DK points vs this same Nuggets team earlier this season), T.J. Warren, Julius Randle (price is up, but there is upside here vs this weak Mavs interior defense, that is a 3.63 opponent +/-), Brook Lopez (same goes for Lopez, as this matchup is great at a 4.56 current opponent +/- for starting centers), Josh Jackson (33.5 DK PPG in five before the blowout to The Spurs), LaMarcus Aldridge (back to back 50+ games for LA and he should see huis usage rise even more in this matchup vs The Warriors, that is a 3.86 opponent +/-), Dario Saric (if Embiid is out. He is averaging 35.1 DK PPG in the ten that Embiid has sat this year), and Elfrid Payton. (if Ulis is out. Booker is already confirmed out and if Ulis was as well, Payton would have to start and log high minutes in his first game as a Sun. The price tag is correct, but there is upside in this game that should be high scoring, with its O/U game total of 219.5 points)