Welcome back everybody. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for February 11th. Tonight, we get a full slate, with nine games on tap. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (10,000)
After a three game road stint (52 DK PPG in L3), Towns will back at home, where he is scoring 3.9 more DK PPG this season. More importantly, he will be in one of the best possible spots for a center, vs The Clippers. (4.03 opponent +/-) In their first meeting of the year, KAT scored 52.5 DK points, and in the five previous home games that he has faced an opponent +/- of 3.0 points or better, Towns is averaging 53.25 DK PPG.
Plus, this game presents the highest O/U game total of Monday night (229.5 points), and in the 11 home games that have come with a total of at least 225 points this season, Towns is exceeding expectations by 5.2 DK PPG. He has topped 60 DK points in two of his last four at home and has a strong chance of surpassing that number again on Monday.
PG/SG: Chasson Randle: (3,300)
With Tomas Satoransky missing tonight’s game vs The Pistons for personal reasons, Randle will draw the start, with John Wall (Achilles) obviously still on the shelf. On Saturday night, with Satoransky starting and logging 29 minutes, Randle had his best showing of the season, with a career high 20 points vs The Bulls. (26.75 DK points) He played 25 minutes and was a key to them winning this game. Now, with Satoransky away from the team, Randle should see 30+ minutes tonight.
The matchup could be better (DET is 9th in defensive efficiency), but Randle is averaging a solid 0.77 DK PPM this season, and with this kind of playing time, it’s hard to envision him not producing seven to eight times value, no matter the defense he is facing. At only $3,300, Randle is your free square for this nine game slate.
SG/SF: Dion Waiters: (4,100)
Waiters has been the main beneficiary since The Heat traded Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington to Phoenix. He has started in the first two games without these guards and is coming off an excellent 39.25 DK point performance last night vs The Warriors. He played 41 minutes in this game and is now averaging 36.21 MPG as a starter.
Waiters saw a solid 20.7% usage rate on Sunday and is supplying 0.8 DK PPM this year. He will be in Denver, which is a tough spot for wing players (0.12 opponent +/-), but the very high expected playing time outweighs any concerns I have with the matchup. Waiters should grind out at least 20 DK points with a solid ceiling over 30, and is nice value play, that can be used as a SG or SF.
SF/PF: Trey Lyles: (4,000)
Lyles has been huge for The Nuggets with Paul Milsap (questionable, ankle) out these last three games. (29.75 DK PPG) Milsap may be currently listed as questionable, but he was a “very limited” participant in practice on Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for his chances of suiting up this evening. Assuming he is out again, Lyles should see around 25 minutes off the bench vs The Heat.
He is scoring an effective 1.15 DK PPM in these past three games and playing with a ton of confidence right now, hence his 23.8% usage rate in these contests. The Heat are a positive matchup for PFs (1.21 opponent +/-) and Lyles has been slightly better at home this season. (1.2 more DK PPG) He is clearly underpriced at $4,000 and is a value that needs to be deployed, if Millsap misses another game.
PG/SG: James Harden: (12,000)
The Thunder defense really bothered Harden on Saturday (48.5 DK points), but he still sported a massive 46% usage rate in the loss, which is the highest mark he has seen since Chris Paul returned. He is dealing with a shoulder strain and Houston is favored by 10 points at home, but I think The Beard’s incredible ceiling is still worth attacking in GPPs. He is averaging 65.3 DK PPG at home this season and is averaging 67.4 DK PPG in two meetings with Dallas.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,400)
Westbrook continued his triple double streak to nine on Saturday night (58.5 DK points vs The Rockets) and tonight’s tilt vs The Blazers is expected to be high scoring (229.5 point O/Y game total), and competitive. (OKC -6) Westbrook is averaging 60.1 DK PPG against them this season (two games) and 57.31 DK PPG (36 games) when the spread is single digits.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,400)
Just like with KAT, after a road trip (52.31 DK PPG in L4), Jokic will be back on his home court, where he has been a far more productive player this season. (6.8 more DK PPG) He has produced a whopping 70.12 DK PPG in his last two in Denver and went off for 63.3 DK points in his first matchup with The Heat this season.
C: Andre Drummond: (8,900)
Home/away splits are big factor for centers tonight. Drummond will also be at home, where he is supplying 7.2 more DK PPG, in a prime matchup vs The Wizards. (1.92 opponent +/-) They are allowing the 3rd most RPG this season and Drummond is scoring 56.3 DK PPG in his last three, mostly due to his ridiculous work on the glass. (16 RPG) Vs this weak Wizards’ front-court, Drummond has 20/20 upside.
SG: Bradley Beal: (8,800)
Beal has been great (49.5 DK PPG in L4) and his usage (+2.8%) and assist percentage (+5.3%) both increase with Satoransky off the court. Despite this being a difficult matchup (DET is a 0.72 opponent +/-), Beal has 50+ DK point upside.
PG: Damian Lillard: (8,600)
Lillard just continues to be too cheap. He is scoring 47.3 DK PPG in his last two and 49.1 DK PPG vs The Thunder this season.
PF/C: Lauri Marrkkanen: (7.900)
His minutes did come down a little of Saturday (31.4 compared to 39.3 MPG in previous two), but he is still scoring 47.87 DK PPG in his last four. The Bucks have been weak up front (1.58 opponent +/-) and Marrkkanen should crack 40 DK points for the 5th straight game.
PG: Chris Paul: (6,800)
CP3 was outstanding on Saturday (49.5 DK points vs The Thunder) and has improved his DK score in each of his last five games. He played 34.5 minutes in this loss and if tonight’s game vs The Mavs can stay close (HOU -10), Paul should easily provide value at this discounted price.
PG/SG: Zach LaVine: (6,800)
LaVine is on a serious roll right now (45.08 DK PPG in L3) and could still get us 40+ DK points vs The Bucks (0.71 opponent +/-), when you consider he is on his home floor. (3.5 more DK PPG this season)
PG: Dennis Smith Jr.: (6,400)
DSJ is scoring 40.25 DK PPG in these last three as a Knick and will be playing The Cavs, who are still the worst rated defense in The NBA. (1.82 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Bobby Portis: (6,300)
Portis has been The Wizards’ primary big man since joining the club (39.5 DK PPG and 26.75 MPG in L2) and his size will be needed vs the big Pistons’ front-court. (1.07 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Larry Nance Jr.: (5,900)
Nance has been an elite fantasy play in his last two games (45.37 DK PPG) and is playing The Knicks (2.18 opponent +/-), but Kevin Love is expected to be active. He only played six minutes in his first game back on Friday, so I doubt we see more than 15 minutes from Love, keeping Nance as The Cavs’ main big man.
PF/C:Mason Plumlee: (5,800)
Plumlee has started for Milsap and provided value in each of these last three. (36.1 DK PPG and 32.1 MPG) If Milsap sits, like I am predicting, Plumlee will be one of the best mid-tier targets of the night, even if this matchup is ugly. (MIA is a 0.66 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (5,700)
There’s a chance Myles Turner (questionable knee) doesn’t play, which would make Sabonis an awesome value. He is averaging 39 DK PPG in the five Turner has missed this season and The Hornets are an above average matchup. (1.72 opponent +/-)
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (5,600)
Parker would be a hard player to avoid, if Jeff Green (questionable, hip) is out. He exited during the first half of Saturday’s game vs The Bulls and Parker started the second half in his place. In 35 minutes, he scored 39.5 DK points. Parker has produced an elite 1.41 DK PPM in these first two games with Washington and would be in line for 30+ minutes if Green was absent.
PG/SG: Reggie Jackson: (5,600)
Jackson has been very consistent (39.7 DK PPG in L7) and is at home. (3.0 more DK PPG this season) The Wizards are a perfect spot for a scoring PG like Jackson (2.22 opponent +/- and 3.1 possession increase) and with this game expected to be close (DET -4.5), we should get another 30+ DK point effort from him on Monday.
PG/SG: Jordan Clarkson: (5,200)
Clarkson has recorded 30+ DK points in back to back games and logged over 30 minutes in three of his last four. With Cedi Osman (ankle) still out, Clarkson will likely see at least 30 minutes again, at home, vs a putrid Knicks’ defense. (27th in efficiency)
SG/SF: Tim Hardaway Jr.: (5,000)
THJ shined in his third game with The Mavs last night (34 DK points in 32 minutes) and will continue to start with Harrison Barnes now in Sacramento. If given 30+ minutes again, vs The Rockets, Hardaway should supply close to his season average. (29.8 DK PPG)
C: Ivica Zubac: (4,000)
Zubac drew the start in his Clippers’ debut on Saturday and helped them to a massive 28 point come from behind road win over The Celtics. (28.3 DK points in 23 minutes) He won’t play big minutes, but in 20-25, Big Z should absolutely return five times value (1.11 DK PPM), in this slate high total vs The Wolves. (1.31 opponent +/-)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com