What’s going on everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 13th, 2018. Tuesday night, we get a decent sized slate with six games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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C: Nikola Jokic: (8,900) Tonight, Jokic is in a very nice spot The Spurs, who will be without starting PF LaMarcus Aldridge (knee) for the second straight game. Last night, The Spurs played The Jazz without Aldridge and both starting center Rudy Gobert (34.5 DK points) and backup center Derick Favors (35.75 DK points) reached value while bullying Gasol inside. Both bigs were huge factors in The Jazz picking up their tenth straight win, especially Favors late in the fourth quarter and this matchup is currently sitting at a 2.01 opponent +/- for starting centers. Plus, Jokic will be at home, where he is averaging 5.5 more DK points a game, vs when he is on the road.
This season he is averaging 44.3 DK PPG at home and he has been even better as of late on his home floor, averaging 53.6 DK PPG in his last four starts in Denver. Currently, he is a Vegas prop implied DK score projection of 44.15 points, which is almost exactly what we need him to score to meet five times value. He has been underpriced for close to a month now and I think we need to keep attacking Jokic tonight in this plus matchup.
PF/C: Pau Gasol: (5,600) Aldridge will be out through The All Star Break with a knee injury, which will keep Gasol as The Spurs’ primary big man for the next few games. Last night, as the starter for Aldridge, Gasol was excellent, posting a double double of 15 points and 15 rebounds, while also chipping in with six assists, two blocks, and a steal across 33 minutes in a very tough matchup vs The Jazz. (49.75 DK points)
Tonight, he will draw another start in a better matchup vs The Nuggets, who are the third worst rated defense in the league over their past three games and are presenting a decent current opponent +/- of 1.59 points for starting centers. In all reality, there isn’t a matchup that would stop me from rostering Gasol at this price and he should score 30+ DK points again tonight, with a similar ceiling to what we saw last night, particularly if he manages another double double. For the second straight night, Gasol is the best value on the board and is a core play for this six game slate.
C: Willie Cauley-Stein: (5,900) WCS has been very hit or miss lately, but tonight, he gets a very nice matchup vs The Mavs and is priced under $6,000 for the first time in ten games. This Mavs defense has rated as the fourth worst unit over their last three games, has given up the fifth most total rebounds per game this season, and is currently presenting an opponent +/- of 3.96 points for starting centers. Even though his DK scores have been up and down over the last week, he has still logged over 30 minutes in six of his last eight starts.
He averages 1.01 DK PPM this season and if he sees right around 30 minutes tonight, which he should, barring bad foul trouble, he should produce 30+ DK points vs this Mavs’ defense he is already averaging 29.6 DK PPG this season, in two meetings. It is early in the day, but at the moment, he is the best value on DraftKings when it comes to his Vegas prop projection of 29.25 points. His price won’t be this low for long and I think it is a smart strategy to utilize two centers on DraftKings tonight, with WCS and Jokic.
SG/SF: Will Barton: (6,600) After having his minutes limited due to a blowout vs The Rockets last Friday night (14 DK points), Barton bounce back very nicely Saturday, scoring 43.25 DK points in the win over The Suns. Even when you include that quiet outing vs The Rockets, he is still averaging 33.7 DK PPG over his last seven starts. His matchup tonight doesn’t seem ideal, with The Spurs sitting at a low 0.79 opponent +/-, but they are a weaker unit overall with starting Aldridge sidelined.
He also will be at home, where he has been a more productive player recently, averaging 36.75 DK PPG in his last three home games, compared to the 28.5 DK PPG average for his past three road contests. I don’t like the -2.1 pace drop Barton will see, as his game is better suited for fast paced matchups, but his $6,600 salary is a solid price for the way he has been playing. His SG/SF eligibility makes him very easy to option to get in your lineups and he is one the better mid-tier targets of this slate, that has safety and decent upside.
Also Consider: Raymond Felton (27.8 DK PPG in the two starts for Westbrook. If Russ sits again, he has to be considered vs this Cavs team that has multiple new players), Jerami Grant (if Melo sits again. 22.8 DK PPG in these last two with Russ and Melo sitting), Devin Harris (very nice value if Jamal Murray is out. Would have to play close to 30+ and would easily meet value), David Bertans (26 DK points in 28 minutes last night as a starter with LA out and is averaging 27.25 DK PPG and 30.4 MPG in the three full games without LA and Kawhi. He is a fine value play again tonight at $4,800), Gary Harris (tough to predict right now, but this is a decent price tag for him at home, where he is averaging 30.3 DK PPG), Delon Wright (24.6 DK PPG in his last four), Clint Capela (42.4 DK PPG in last four and this is a strong matchup vs The Wolves who are a 4.21 opponent +/-. Barring foul trouble, he should see 30-35 minutes, as they need his size vs KAT), Jonas Valancuinas (I can’t stand this man, but he has now scored 40+ in two straight games and they will need him vs Whiteside tonight, in this matchup that is a 2.83 opponent +/-), George Hill (quiet in his Cavs debut, but the blowout limited him to only 21 minutes. Tonight’s matchup vs The Thunder has a small spread of 1.5 points and I expect Hill to play 30+ in this game), Dwight Powell (30+ in three straight), Thon Maker (viable punt with Joh Henson out again. Maker will start and should play roughly 25 minutes. He scored 20.75 DK points in the start last game and is averaging 23.5 in the three full games without Henson this season. Plus, this matchup is very strong vs The Hawks who have given up the second most DK points to centers this year and are a high 5.11 opponent +/-), and De’Aaron Fox. (30+ in two straight games and this matchup is good vs The Mavs, who are a 3.08 opponent +/- for starting PGs. Also Iman Shumpert won’t make his debut with the team until after The All-Star Break)