Happy Valentines Day everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 14th, 2018. Tonight we get a huge slate with 12 games on tap. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,600) It’s hard not to like AD tonight. He is averaging a ridiculous 73.8 DK PPG in his last two starts and will be at home, where he is averaging 2.58 more DK points a game, taking on The Lakers who have allowed the third most DK points to PFs and the second most total rebounds per game this season. (4.19 opponent +/-) He dropped 65.3 DK points on them earlier this year and he is averaging 62.38 DK PPG in his last four vs The Lakers. As we all know, Demarcus Counsins (Achilles) is done for the season and Davis’s usage should stay over 30% tonight in this dream matchup.
He is averaging an elite 1.6 DK PPM with Cousins off the court this season and in 35-40 minutes in this game environment, that is the best of the night with it’s small spread of 5.5 points and high total of 230.5 points, Davis should top 60 DK points with an extremely high ceiling. In fact, in the last ten games he has played in that have had a single digit spread and total over 220 points, he is scoring 59.25 DK PPG. He is the top overall play of this slate and is the best high end value, that needs to be considered if you want to pay up for an expensive stud.
PG: De’Aaron Fox: (6,300) In these first three games with veteran PG George Hill gone and traded away to The Cavs, Fox has been consistent as The Kings main PG, averaging 31.1 DK PPG. The minutes have been steady at 33.3 MPG, instead of the 26.6 MPG he was seeing in the prior eight with Hill still in town. His rates haven’t changed much, this is more about The Kings staying committed to Fox as their PG and keeping his minutes high. His matchup tonight is perfect for the extremely fast young rookie, playing The Rockets, who are the 12th ranked team in pace this season, compared to this very slow Kings team, that ranks 27th.
Facing off against Rockets’ PG Chris Paul is never ideal (1.39 opponent +/-), but I think the pace factor out weighs this individual matchup, and Fox has already shown that this season, scoring 25 DK points in only 23 minutes of work vs The Rockets in their first meeting, which is an efficient 1.11 DK PPM when you do the math. I am expecting 30+ DK points in this spot and Vegas agrees, with him having a current DK implied score of 31.02 points based on his Vegas props. I don’t like that he can only be used as PG, but Fox is one of the best mid-tier targets of this slate, that should return value.
SG/SF: Josh Jackson: (5,700) If we forget about the game Jackson had vs The Warriors on Monday night (14.5 DK points), the rookie out of Kansas is averaging 33.5 DK PPG in his prior seven starts. He has averaged a great 27.3% usage rate in his last eight games, including Monday, and is scoring 0.98 DK PPM. Starting SG Devin Booker has missed the last four games with a hip injury and is listed as questionable for tonight, but I am not expecting him to play with this being their last game before The All-Star Break. It makes much more sense for them to let their franchise player sit another game instead of forcing him out there before the break.
Either way, Jackson was doing well in the games with Booker, averaging 33.9 DK PPG in his last three with the SG healthy. He will start again tonight and will play 30-35 minutes in a tougher matchup vs The Jazz. Yes, this matchup is ugly (0.58 opponent +/-), but the minutes and usage Jackson will see trumps this bad matchup. Also, just back on February 2nd, Jackson scored 29 DK points vs this same Jazz defense, which is right around the score we need from him tonight at this price of $5,700, which is $500 drop from his last game. He is really nice bargain at this price and is viable in all formats for this 12 game slate.
SF: Royce O’Neale: (4,300) He didn’t produce Monday vs The Spurs (11.25 DK points), but I think we need to give O’Neale another shot tonight, with starting PG Ricky Rubio out again with the hip injury. Even though the score wasn’t there, he still played 38.2 minutes in the win as a starter with Rubio sitting. He is now averaging 35.6 MPG in these past two without the starting PG. He is averaging 0.76 DK PPM this season with Rubio off the floor and with 30+ again tonight as a starter, O’Neale has a strong chance of returning at least five times value playing way up in pace vs The Suns. (4.6 possession increase)
Not only does the increase in pace help him, but this Suns’ defense has been the worst unit in The NBA in their past three games and is a high current opponent +/- of 3.54 points. O’Neale is one of the best point per dollar plays of this slate, that is necessary if you want to get in a stud like The Brow.
Also Consider: Donovan Mitchell (playing like a man on a mission right now, averaging 42.75 DK PPG in his last three and like all of the Jazz players, Mitchell sees a nice boost playing up in pace vs The Suns who are a great matchup at an opponent +/- of 3.83 points), Tobias Harris (31.2 DK PPG in last four), Dario Saric (if Embiid is out. Is averaging 35 DK PPG in the ten starts without Embiid), T.J. Warren, Rajon Rondo (great matchup vs The Lakers, who should just get worse at defense with Isiash Thomas in town. The matchup is currently an opponent +/- of 3.71 points and he has played at least 25 minutes in four straight games), Willie Cauley-Stein (nice bounce back chance vs The Rockets who are a 2.87 opponent +/-. He scored 42 DK points vs them earlier this season), Malcolm Delaney (Dennis Schroder is out. Delaney should start and should return value, as he is averaging 22.75 DK PPG in the three Schroder has missed this season. Marco Bellinelli is also waived, while Kent Bazemore and Ersan Ilysaova are both out. Delaney has the chance for a decently high usage rate tonight), Tyler Dorsey (very viable if he starts at the two. He is averaging 0.82 DK PPM in this situation and would have to approach 30 minutes), John Collins. (awesome play tonight assuming he starts for Sova. He is always a foul risk, but with all these Hawks off the court, he is averaging 37.6 DK points per 36 minutes and this is a decent matchup vs The Pistons, which is a 3.02 opponent +/-. I think he is still viable if Muscala starts instead of him), Mike Muscala (if he starts, he is a viable punt play, but Collins has the better upside. We should know the starting five with this game being the first to tip at 7:00 PM EST), (Elfird Payton (32.3 DK PPG in these first two as a Sun, that matchup vs The Jazz is tough, but he can still be considered if Booker remains out), Spencer Dinwiddie, and Rudy Gobert. (37.6 DK PPG in last three and he is playing The Suns who are a 2.34 opponent +/-)