Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 25th, 2018. Tonight we get a full slate of 11 games. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,700) There are many reasons to like AD tonight. First off, yes there are two overtimes games involved here, but he is averaging an insane 72 DK PPG in his last five starts. His usage has been very high at 33.5% and tonight he will be at home, where he is 3.3 DK PPG better this season, playing against the worst rated defense in the league, in The Suns. They have allowed the third most DK points to centers this year (3.74 opponent +/-), will be without their starting center Tyson Chandler (neck), who is arguably their best defender, and they play at the fourth fastest pace in The NBA.
Combine all this with the fact that The Pelicans have been far the fastest team in the league by a large 5.0 possessions in their last three games and this game has the highest O/U game total of Monday night’s big 11 game slate, at 235.5 points, which is a total that has actually increased a notable 4.5 points from the opening lines. Currently, based on his Vegas props, Davis has an implied DK projection of 58.95 points, which is right at where we need him to score to meet value. Even at this high of a salary, The Brow still rates as a very strong value, that has an absurd ceiling in this spot. He must be considered in all formats tonight.
PG/SG: Trey Burke: (4,800) I recommended Burke on Saturday and thought he was nice value play for his low price, but I didn’t expect another 40+ DK game from the guard who was just playing in The G-League a few weeks ago. In the loss to The Celtics on Saturday night, even though he still came off the bench, he played the most minutes at point for the team (26.5) and scored 26 real points for the second straight game, and is now averaging 42.5 DK PPG in these last two. Jeff Hornacek and this Knicks’ Coaching staff have clearly given the former Michigan star the full green light, with him seeing an average of 20.5 shots per contest and a team high 32.9% usage rate in these first two games back from The All-Star Break. Soon they may move him to the starting five over Emmanuel Mudiay, but even if they don’t, Burke should remain a viable fantasy value until his salary is adjusted correctly.
He is now $4,600, which is a $800 jump from Saturday night, but I think he should still exceed value in this matchup vs The Warriors, who are currently a nice matchup for PGs, at a 3.78 opponent +/-. Without a doubt The Warriors will win this game and there is a good chance it may be a blowout victory (-11.5 GSW), but with him coming off the bench and this team opting to stay young for the rest of the season, Burke should play 25-30 minutes no matter the outcome of this game. His usage is obviously a part of the game plan and he should gun up 15-20 shots again tonight. We can’t expect 40+ DK points for any bench player in this league, but Burke should produce five to six times value playing up in pace tonight (3.6 possession increase) in this high scoring affair. (229 O/U game total)
SG: Jamal Crawford: (3,800) Saturday night, without starting SF Jimmy Butler (knee), Crawford saw a bigger role off the bench, scoring 19 points, three assists, and a rebound vs The Bulls. (26.75 DK points) He played 26.75 minutes in this game, which is a nice boost from his 19.1 MPG average for the season. This was the fifth game that the veteran has played this year without Butler and he is now averaging 26.6 DK PPG, a 26.3% usage rate, and 1.05 DK PPM in these contests.
Even though he smashed value on Saturday and DraftKings has had two days to adjust his price accordingly, his salary has barely moved, only increasing $100 to $3,800 for tonight’s solid matchup vs The Kings. (2.2 opponent +/-) He should play 25+ minutes again tonight and score 20+ DK points, with 30 DK point upside. There is no chance he is priced under $4,000 for his next game and Crawford is a value play that needs to be utilized on Monday night.
C: Alex Len: (5,600) The price keeps going up, but Len is still a very viable option at $5,600, with starting center Tyson Chandler out again with the neck injury. He has started the last three games with Chandler out and is averaging 35.9 DK PPG and 30.4 MPG during this span. Tonight, he will be playing in the highest expected scoring game of the night (235.5 points), going against The Pelicans who are a nice 4.72 opponent +/- for starting centers.
Also, as I touched on above, The Pelicans are currently the fastest team in The NBA, so this is actually a pace increase for Len and The Suns. He should be extremely active as the starting center and with 25-30 minutes of work, Len should score 30+ DK points, with solid upside if he can get a double double. Hopefully the $500 price increase from his last game keeps some people off him, because I think Len is a really strong target that gives you another share of this elite game environment.
Also Consider: Neman Bjelica: (had an okay first game as the starter for Butler, at 22.75 DK points, but he played 32.4 minutes in the win. He is still averaging 23.8 DK PPG in all the contests with Butler sitting and is still a viable cheap play tonight), Andrew Harrison (Tyreke Evans and Wayne Selden will be out again. 30 DK points last game with these two sitting, but tonight’s matchup is far from ideal vs The Celtics), Mike Muscala (17.75 DK PPG and 24.6 MPG in these past two with PF Ersan Ilyasova gone. Sova has officially been released and will sign with The Sixers, keeping Muscala in a 20-25 minute role off the bench, in a dream matchup vs The Lakers, who are a 4.55 opponent +/-), Denzel Valentine (if Zach LaVine is rested tonight), Zach LaVine (if he plays, 38.12 DK PPG in his last two), David Nwaba (nice matchup vs The Nets and he is averaging 32.25 DK PPG as a starter for The Bulls in these last two. Would also see a boost if LaVine sat. It’s also worth mentioning he has a grab nine rebounds in both of these games as a starter. If he gets a double double, which is definitely possible vs The Nets, who have allowed the most total rebounds per game this season, that would be a very nice boost to his DK score), Cristiano Felicio (after a bad game in his first start, he rebounded with 22.25 DK points and 30.42 minutes on Saturday. He will start again and if he sees close to 30 minutes again he should easily achieve value in this matchup vs The Nets who are an insane 7.32 opponent +/- for starting centers), Nikola Mirotic (if he starts over Okafor this is a great spot vs The Suns, who are a 4.37 opponent +/-), John Collins (27.4 DK PPG in these first two without Sova. Should play roughly 30 minutes again tonight vs The Lakers, who are a 4.55 opponent +/-. He has a 29.7 implied DK score based on his current Vegas props), Julius Randle (been awesome averaging 45.5 DK PPG in his last three and is playing a weak interior defense in The Hawks, who are a 4.84 opponent +/-), Rajon Rondo (near triple double and 47.5 DK points last game. This game should be very fast and high scoring, which is perfect for Rondo’s game), and Jrue Holiday. (hard to ignore how good he has been with The Pelicans playing at a faster pace. He is now averaging 53.9 DK PPG in these past four and as expected this matchup vs The Suns is very strong, at a 3.74 opponent +/-)