Welcome back guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 27th, 2018. Tonight we get a decent slate with six games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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C: Joel Embiid: (9,400) Embiid is by far the best high end value of the night. At $9,400, he needs to score 47 DK points to meet value, which is something he has done is six of his last seven games. As of late, he has been a beast, averaging 56.9 DK PPG in his last three starts. Tonight, he will be facing off against The Heat, who are a good defense overall, but they have been a solid matchup for starting centers recently, currently rating as a 3.1 opponent +/-.
He is scoring an elite 1.76 DK PPM in his past three games and he should score 50+ DK points in around 35 minutes of action, with this game expected to be very competitive. (-1 MIA) At the moment, he is the best value on DraftKings based on his Vegas props, with an implied DK score of 48.35 points. He is a great bargain at $9,400 and is a play that I will be building around on Tuesday night.
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (7,200) Simply put, Lou Will is just way too cheap tonight. He has been paying great in these last two games with SG Avery Bradley (hernia) out, crushing value and averaging 44.25 DK PPG, but DraftKings for some odd reasons has decided to cut his price $300 since his last game on Friday night. Tonight, Bradley will be out again and he will be competing in by far the best game of the night to target, with this Clippers Nuggets matchup having a slate high O/U game total of 230.5 points and a small spread of 4.5 points, in favor of Denver.
At a first glance this matchup vs The Nuggets isn’t the best for Williams (1.72 opponent +/-), but over their last three games they have been the worst rated defense in the association. Also, he has flourished in high scoring affairs like this one tonight, with him averaging a great 46.75 DK PPG in the three games he has played in this season, that have had an O/U game total of at least 230 points. He should approach 40 DK points, with a ceiling around 50-55 DK points. Even at a higher salary, Williams is easily one of the best point per dollar values of this six game slate, that can be used with confidence in all formats. Lastly, I want to mention that Williams would see a nice bump if SF Danilo Gallinari (hand) was out also out. If we take Galo out of the equation, Lou sees a 2.7% usage increase and is scoring 42.3 DK points per 36 minutes. He scored 45.25 DK points and posted a 37.4% usage rate with Galo out on Friday night vs The Suns.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker: (4,300) Parker’s minutes having been trending up, with him logging 20.5 and then 24 minutes in his past two games. As expected, the increase in playing time has helped his numbers, with a solid 20.25 DK point game vs The Raptors on Tuesday and then 31.5 DK points vs The Pelicans on Sunday, which was his best performance of the season. His usage has been very steady with the second unit, at 25% in his last four games, which has helped him to average 1.03 DK PPM during this time. Doing just fine with the season high 24 minutes on Sunday, Parker’s minutes should be right around 25 minutes tonight in a nice matchup vs The Wizards, who are a 3.04 opponent +/- right now for SFs.
His upside is obviously limited because his minutes will be limited, but at only $4,300, Parker is still a very nice value play, that should get us 25-30 DK points in this spot. His price is going to be close to $5,000 soon and we need to take advantage of him still being cheap this evening.
SG/SF: Denzel Valentine: (4,200) In these last two games with SF Paul Zipser (foot) out, Valentine has played 28 and then 29 minutes last night. He was okay in the first game of these two with 18.25 DK points vs The Wolves, but last night he was awesome, scoring 36.25 DK points vs The Nets. Yes, starting SG Zach LaVine was rested in this game, helping Valentine’s usage, but with Zipser still expected to be out again tonight, Valentine should log 25-30 minutes off the bench.
He is averaging 0.85 DK PPM this season and with this kind of playing time, he has a strong chance of returning at least five times value in this okay matchup vs The Hornets. (2.15 opponent +/-) We can’t expect a DK score like last night, but 20-25 DK points is a very reasonable expectation. Zipser hasn’t been officially ruled out, but once he is, Valentine is a fine cheap value that can be used in both cash games and GPPs.
Also Consider: Hassan Whiteside: (averaging 36 DK PPG in his last four, which is right at what we need from him tonight. I do worry about him getting in foul trouble vs Embiid, but the price tag is just too enticing. Also, he has a nice DK implied score based on his Vegas props, at 36 points), Cristiano Felicio (his production is all over the place, but he has played 30 and 29 minutes in these last two games. He averages 0.66 DK PPM this season and if he plays this much, you have to expect him to score 15+ DK points), Tyrone Wallace/Tobias Harris (if Danilo Gallinari is out. Both would have to play more and would see nice usage bumps. In this past game with Galo out, Wallace scored 33 DK points and Harris dropped 60.5 DK points vs The Suns on Friday night. They would both be very viable ways of getting exposure to this high total if he sits another game), Jamal Murray, Khris Middleton (this will be the third game in a row he has been $6,700, which is just too cheap with him averaging 35.75 DK PPG in his last two), Austin Rivers (28.1 DK PPG in past two and this Nuggets defense has been bad as of late), Jarrett Allen (32 DK PPG in last two and Jahill Okafor hasn’t played a minute in over two weeks), Zach LaVine, and Buddy Hield. (minutes and scores have been up, with 33.6 DK PPG and 29 MPG in his last three)