gravatar

DraftKings NBA Picks – February 28th

What’s going on everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 28th, 2018. Tonight we get a full slate of nine games. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com

Top Pick:

PG: Chris Paul: (8,300) This is the cheapest Paul has been in over two months and this is the perfect time to attack him going against his former team in The Clippers. They have been the sixth worst rated defense in The NBA in their last three games and are currently rating as 2.81 opponent +/- for Paul. In his first game vs this Clippers team, he put up 40 DK points in 34 minutes and tonight, I think we see 40-45 DK points out of him with nice upside, with this contest having a high O/U game total of 226.5 points and spread of eight points.

In the nine other games this year that he has played in that have had a spread under ten points and an O/U game total of 220 points or more, Paul is averaging 41.86 DK PPG, which is right over what we need from him tonight. Believe in narratives or not, Paul, without a doubt, has had this game marked on his calendar and he is going to do anything he possibly can to help this Rockets team beat The Clippers in The Staples Center. This is a terrific price for CP3 and I think he can be used with full confidence tonight.

Value Picks:

PF/C: Draymond Green: (7,200) Yes, Green hasn’t been that great fantasy wise in his last two games (29.5 DK PPG), but there is no way his price should have dropped $800. At $7,200, he needs to score 36 DK points to reach five times value, which is very likely with him averaging 37.3 DK PPG this season. Furthermore, he will be on the road, where Green has been better this season, averaging 38.5 DK PPG, which is a 2.4 DK point differential compared to when he is at home. The matchup is also a positive, taking on The Wizards who are a current opponent +/- of 3.04 points.

Like with every Warriors contest, this game has a high O/U game total of 226.5 points, with a decently tight spread of 8.5 points. He has been excellent in these situations this season, averaging 43.7 DK PPG in the ten road games that have had a less than double spread and an O/U game total of at least 225 points. Also, over the last two seasons, he has had no issues against this Wizards squad, averaging 41.58 DK PPG in their last three matchups. Finally, he is currently rate as a strong value based on his Vegas props, with a DK implied projection of 36.9 points. At this discounted price tag, he is a very strong target that gives you a share of this Warriors team, that has the highest implied team total of this nine game slate. (117.5 points)

SF/PF: David Bertans: (3,900) Tonight, with starting center Pau Gasol expected to be out (doubtful, knee), Bertans should draw the start at the four, with LaMacrus Aldridge sliding over to center. This will be the third full game that he has played this season without Gasol and SF Kawhi Leonard (quad) and in the first two, he was solid with a bigger role, averaging 22.8 DK PPG and 25 MPG, which is a large 12 DK point increase. As a starter, he should log 25-30 minutes and mostly avoid guarding Pelicans’ big man Anthony Davis, which should keep him out of foul trouble.

He averaged 0.91 DK PPM in the two other full games that Gasol and Leonard missed and with this kind of playing time, Bertans should be able to score 20+ DK points vs this defense, that is currently a strong opponent +/- of 5.56 points. He should also benefit from this being a huge pace increase for him, as The Pelicans have been by far the fastest team in The NBA since The All-Star Break, compared to The Spurs who are the slowest team in the league this season. (5.6 possession increase) We don’t have official word of him starting and we might not get it before lock with this game tipping off at 8:30 PM EST, but at this cheap of a price, the reward outweighs the risk with Bertans in this situation.

PG/SG: Andrew Harrison: (5,700) This is the highest priced Harrison has been all season, but he has been a very good fantasy option as of late, with The Grizzlies deciding to go with their younger players more and many of his teammates still out due to injury. With PG Tyreke Evans (ribs), SG Wayne Selden (knee), and SF Chandler Parsons (illness) out the last two games, which will be the case again tonight, Harrison has averaged 31.4 DK PPG as the Grizzlies starting PG. Even though both of these games have been blowout losses for Memphis, his minutes have stayed steady at 30.4 MPG and his usage has been much higher at 26.4%, which is a notable 6.1% increase from his average rate for this season. He has been scoring a solid 1.03 DK PPM in these starts and tonight he couldn’t ask for a better matchup, going against The Suns, who have allowed the sixth most DK points to PGs this season (3.64 opponent +/-) and have been the second fastest team in the league over their last three games.

This is a slate high 5.9 possession increase for him and The Grizzlies. The spread of this game doesn’t matter because he will play high minutes regardless and The Grizzlies have an implied team total of 108.75 points, which is rather high for this team that is only averaging 92 PPG in their last three. He should come out and score 30+ DK points for the third straight game and is a viable mid-tier target for all formats on Wednesday night.

Also Consider: JaMychal Green (32.5 DK PPG in his last three and has played over 30 in his last two, even though they were both lopsided affairs. Very much like Harrison, they want to develop him and he should play 30+ for the rest of the season. This is also an awesome matchup, with The Suns sitting at a 4.53 opponent +/-. He is a great play in all formats), Otto Porter Jr. (39.25 DK PPG in his last two and he should see a boost playing up in pace vs The Warriors. He scored 53.5 DK points in his first game vs the defending champs earlier this season), Jabari Parker (if he plays and isn’t limited any more than he has been as of late. 27.75 DK points in 26.4 minutes last night), Rajon Rondo (over 35 minutes in back to back games. The matchup could obviously be better, but 35 minutes is a lot of time for a player who scores 1.05 DK PPM this season), Jrue Holiday, Elfird Payton (this Grizzlies team is in full tank mode and they are a 3.59 current opponent +/- for starting PGs), Lou Williams (44.75 DK PPG in his last three and is averaging 52.9 DK PPG in his first two vs The Rockets this season. SG Avery Bradley will be out again and SF Danilo Gallinari could also sit again, further helping Lou’s usage), Alex Len (struggled really bad with foul trouble vs AD last game and let many DFS players down, so he should be very low owned. Starting center Tyson Chandler will be out again, allowing Len to start in this matchup vs The Grizzlies, which is a ugly matchup, but is one they will need his size. He is a very strong GPP play tonight), Austin Rivers (27.75 DK PPG in last three), Devin Booker (expensive, but has been on fire averaging 57.9 DK PPG in last two and is facing this Grizzlies defense that is slipping right now), Patty Mills (if he starts again over Danny Green. Has averaged 30.25 DK PPG and 34 MPG in these past two as a starter and this matchup is very strong at a 5.83 opponent +/-), Tyrone Wallace (if Galo is out. 30.5 DK PPG in these past two with the SF out), and Tobias Harris. (GPP viable if Galo is out again. Was quiet last night, but scored 60.5 DK points in the prior games without Galo and Bradley)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *