What’s going on guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 3rd, 2018. Tonight we get a full slate with eight games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,300) With Demarcus Cousins (Achilles) out and done for the season, Davis as expected, has been dominate, averaging 62 DK PPG. His usage reached an insane level of 48.4% last game vs The Thunder and he is now averaging a 36% usage rate in the three games without Boogie. Tonight, he will be in a matchup he has struggled with this season vs The Wolves (37.3 DK PPG), but Cousins played in these first three games and by the numbers, this has been a positive matchup for big men this season. (2.44 opponent +/-) He is averaging 1.55 DK PPM in these past three games and in 35-40 minutes, AD should approach 60 DK points in this spot.
There are a ton of superstars in action on Saturday night, but most of them are priced correctly and aren’t that strong of values. Davis’s price of $11,300 might be high, but it is actually a slight $100 drop from last night and he is the best high end value of this eight game slate. If paying up for one stud on Saturday night, Davis is the player I want to build around.
C: Nikola Jokic: (8,700) I know I keep recommending him, but no matter how consistent Jokic plays, DraftKings still wont adjust his price to where it should be. His price has gone up $600 since his last game, but he is still a bargain at $8,700. He is coming off a massive 76.75 DK points game in a win over The Thunder on Thursday night and he is now averaging 45.7 DK PPG in his past ten starts. On Saturday night, he will be competing in the best game environment of the night, in a matchup with the defending champion Warriors. The Nuggets will be at home, which is a huge plus for them to keep this game close and this contest has a small spread of five points, which is small for any Warriors game, with a slate high O/U game total of 230.5 points.
In the last six games that Jokic has played in that have a single digit spread, along with an O/U game total over 230 points, he is averaging 48 DK PPG. Plus, this is a nice matchup at the moment (3.72 opponent +/-) and he is averaging 42.2 DK PPG in their first three matchups with The Warriors this year. Lastly, being at home has been a huge factor for him this season, with him averaging 5.7 more DK points at home in Denver. Don’t expect another 70+ game from him, but at $8,700, Jokic is a very strong value and is the best way to get a share of this Nuggets-Warriors game.
SG: Gary Harris: (5,700) There really isn’t any logic to it, but this $5,700 price is the cheapest Harris has been since the end of November. In his last game, he nailed the game winning shot vs The Thunder and scored 36.25 DK points in the win. Over his last five games, he is now averaging 32.2 DK PPG. At his current salary he needs to score 28.5 DK points to reach five times value, which is something he has accomplished 73% of the time this month. The matchup vs The Warriors is solid, as they are currently a 2.55 opponent +/- for starting SGs and they have allowed the third most three pointers made in the league over their last three games.
He also has played well in these type of high scoring games, especially at home, with him averaging 31.6 DK PPG in his last eight home games that have had an O/U game total over 220 points. Additionally, this is a 3.9 possession increase for him and The Nuggets, and in the four games he has seen a possession increase of 2.0 or more, he is averaging 36 DK PPG. He should top 30 DK points in this shootout and he is a very strong value play, that just gives you another piece of the highest total of the night.
PG: Rajon Rondo: (4,600) In the first game since trading away back up Jameer Nelson to Chicago in the Nikola Mirotic deal, Rondo played great, dropping 42.25 DK points in 34 minutes of action last night vs The Thunder. It may not seem like a big deal that Nelson is gone, but Rondo is now averaging 32 DK PPG and 32.7 MPG in the six games he has played without the veteran PG. His minutes can be really hard to predict, but if Rondo sees 30+ again tonight, he should have no issues out producing this price tag in this matchup vs The Wolves, who have allowed the sixth most DK points to PGs this season. (2.72 opponent +/-) In fact, in the last five games he has played at least 25 minutes, Rondo is averaging 32.3 DK PPG.
He also benefits when Cousins is off the court, with him averaging 1.1 DK PPM in the time he has played without both Cousins and Nelson this season, which is a 0.3 DK PPM increase. Also, as we saw last night, Rondo likes to step up his game vs the best teams in the league. In his last 20 games vs teams with a record above .500, he is averaging 26 DK PPG. For sure, there is risk here, but at this cheap of a price, Rondo’s upside is worth a gamble in GPPs and in cash games, depending how risky of a DFS player you are.
Also Consider: Bam Adebayo (likely starter with Whiteside out. 19.8 DK PPG in the 16 Whiteside has missed this season. He is one of the best punts of the slate), Kelly Olynyk (also viable with Whiteside out. 26.5 DK PPG and 27.1 MPG sans Whiteside), Dwayne Wade (28.5 DK PPG in his past three games and this is a decent spot vs the fast paced Rockets, who are a 2.32 opponent +/-), Nikola Mirotic (if confirmed starting), LaMarcus Aldridge (the matchup isn’t great vs The Jazz, but this is a very nice price for Aldridge with Leonard out), Will Barton (33 DK PPG in his last three and is playing 39 MPG. He is a nice mid-tier target way of getting exposure to this game, that is guaranteed high minutes), Jamal Murray (the least appealing value of The Nuggets wings, but the upside is the highest for Murray and he has the best individual matchup, at a 3.73 opponent +/-), Jrue Holiday (39.4 DK PPG in last three starts), Marreese Speights (Aaron Gordon is out again. Speights started last game and scored 29 DK points. Even as a reserve in the game before, he is averaging 30.5 DK PPG in these last two without Gordon. If he starts, he is viable in all formats), Mario Hezonja (if he starts for Gordon. 26.75 as the starter two games ago), E’Twaun Moore (34.5 DK points last night on a 25.3% usage rate), Gerald Green (Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon will be out again. I think he is viable in GPPs in this awesome spot vs The Cavs, who are a high 6.03 opponent +/-), and Luc Mbah a Moute (will start for Ariza and as you know, this is a gorgeous spot vs The Cavs, who are a 7.29 opponent +/- and they will need his defense to matchup with LeBron).