How’s it going everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for February 6th. For Wednesday night, we get seven games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG/SG: James Harden: (12,600)
With The Spurs creating a plethora of value for tonight, it is very easy to fit in James Harden. With Chris Paul back Monday after being rested on Saturday night, The Beard scored 72 DK points in the win over The Suns, and in these first four with CP3 healthy, and Clint Capela (thumb) still out, the reigning MVP is supplying 68.37 DK PPG. Eric Gordon (questionable, knee) missed Monday and could be out again tonight, which would be a decent boost for Harden, but either way, he should produce another huge line vs The Kings, who are the 4th fastest team in The NBA, compared to The Rockets, who rank 24th in pace.
This is a large 5.5 possession increase for Houston and The Kings also rank 20th in defensive efficiency. (1.18 opponent +/-) Since the beginning of December, in the 25 games that Harden has seen a positive opponent +/-, and a pace increase, he is scoring 66.6 DK PPG. Additionally, in the eight games this season, that The Rockets have received a pace increase of 5.0 or more possessions, Harden has been unstoppable (70.28 DK PPG), and when they have been projected for 115 points or higher (119.25 points tonight, 3rd highest implied team of the slate), he is also producing huge numbers. (68.56 DK PPG in 16 games) This matchup has the highest O/U game total of the night (235.5 points) and a small line (HOU -3), making Harden worth every penny.
C: Jakob Poeltl: (3,200)
The Spurs will be without Derick White (leg) due to injury and they will be resting their top two players, LaMarcus Aldrdige, and DeMar DeRozan. With Pau Gasol limited (less than 10 minutes in five of his last seven), Poeltl should start at center in place of Aldridge vs The Warriors. He produces an effective 1.03 DK PPM when Aldridge, DeRozan, and White are all off the floor, and as one of their youngest players, Poeltl should play at least 25 minutes, no matter the outcome of the game. (GSW -14.5)
In the nine games he has played 20 minutes or more this season, Poeltl is scoring 18.27 DK PPG, and to put a cherry on top, The Warriors have struggled with opposing big men all season. (2.09 opponent +/-) At only $3,200, Poeltl is an elite value play, that needs to be ultilized.
SF/PF: Davis Bertans: (4,100)
Bertans is also an awesome target with The Spurs shorthanded. On Monday, with just White out, Bertans drew the start vs The Kings, and scored 27.5 DK points in 33 minutes. He should see high playing time again tonight and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Bertans led The Spurs in minutes played.
He scores 0.83 DK PPM and in the four contests he has gone over 30 minutes this season, the sharp shooting big from Latvia is averaging 29.25 DK PPG. The Warriors have allowed the 8th most 3PPG and Bertans is a safe bet for 25+ DK points.
PF/C: Marvin Bagley: (5,800)
It took a little bit, following a knee injury that cost him a slew of games, but Bagley has looked great over the last few weeks. In Monday’s win over The Spurs, he went off for a career best 55 DK points across 30 minutes off the bench. This was the second game in a row he has topped 30 minutes and the rookie is now scoring 37.5 DK PPG in his last six. As I said above, this Kings Rockets game should be an absolute shootout and I am expecting HC Dave Joeger to give Bagley at least 30 minutes for the third straight contest.
Not only is this game setting perfect, but The Rockets have been a disaster inside with Capela injured. (1.5 opponent +/- and 5th most points in the paint in their last three) In his first tilt vs The Rockets this season, Bagley recorded a solid 28.5 DK points, and tonight, I am expecting 30+.
SF/PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo: (11,400)
The Greek Freak was very productive in this recent five game road trip (57.7 DK PPG) and now, he will be back at home, where he has supplied 3.0 more DK PPG in the 2018-2019 season. Plus, he will be playing The Wizards, who are 26th in defensive efficiency, and 6th in pace. The Bucks have the second highest implied team total of the slate (120.75 points) and in the seven home games that Milwaukee was projected for 120+ points this year, Giannis is averaging 59.2 DK PPG.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,600)
Jokic can really let you down when he is away from Denver (-8.2 DK PPG this season), but this is a dream spot for him vs The Nets. (3.95 opponent +/-) The Joker should make a fool of Jarret Allen and company, and in The Nuggets first tilt vs The Nets this season, he erupted for 37 points, and 21 rebounds. (72.8 DK points)
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday: (9,000)
After an odd 29.75 DK point game vs The Spurs, Holiday got right back on track vs The Pacers on Monday. (49.25 DK points) Anthony Davis (finger), E’Twaun Moore (rest), Elfird Payton (ankle), and Nikola Mirotic (calf) will all remain out, while Julius Randle (ankle) is a GTD. No matter if Randle suits up or not, Holiday should still approach five times value against The Bulls. (1.16 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Julius Randle: (7,700)
Speaking of Randle, if he is active, and has no limitations, he should have a big game with The Pelicans missing so many key players. The Bulls are always a great team to target inside (1.3 opponent +/-) and in his previous three before getting hurt, Randle was scoring 40.5 DK PPG.
PG: Chris Paul: (7,100)
Paul looked like his old self with 33 minutes of action on Monday (38.25 DK points vs The Suns) and he should log a similar amount vs The Kings. (2.01 opponent +/-) I like him slightly better if Gordon sits (+3.7% usage), but CP3 is viable all formats no matter what EG’s status is.
PF/C: Kenneth Faried: (7,000)
Faried should post a double double vs this Kings’ defense, that has allowed the 2nd most RPG this season. In his last seven, Faried is averaging 36.8 DK PPG as The Rockets’ starting center.
SF/PF: Rudy Gay: (5,900)
The blowout concerns are much more a factor with an older player like Gay, but when White, Aldridge, and DeRozan are missing, he sees a team high 10.2% usage increase, and leads The Spurs with 1.59 DK PPM. He should play over 25 minutes regardless, but if the game somehow stayed close, Gay could have one of his best games of the season.
SF/PF: Otto Porter Jr.: (5,800)
Since rejoining the starting five, Porter is averaging 34.87 DK PPG, and he should top 30 DK points vs this Bucks’ defense he just faced on Saturday. (38.25 DK points)
SF/PF: Josh Jackson: (5,500)
If Devin Booker (GTD, hamstring) sits, Jackson will be a solid contrarian play. He is producing 35 DK PPG in his last three with Booker healthy and is averaging 1.14 DK PPM when Booker, Tyson Chandler (now with LAL), T.J. Warren (out, knee), D’Antony Melton (out, ankle), Isiah Canaan (waived), and Trevor Ariza (traded to WAS) are all off the floor. The large spread (UATH -14.5) and difficult matchup on the road (0.32 opponent +/-), will naturally make his ownership low.
PG/SG: Shabazz Napier: (5,300)
The price tag keeps rising, but Napier could still provide value, given how well he has played since Spencer Dinwiddie (out, thumb) went down. (30.9 DK PPG in L6)
SG/SF: Tim Hardaway Jr.: (4,900)
THJ should join the starting five tonight in his Mavs debut. It’s unclear how much he will play, but you have to expect a decent workload, as one of the best offensive players on this team. He scored 30 DK PPG and 0.92 DK PPM with The Knicks this season and I could see him shining in his first game in a Dallas uniform. (CHA is a 1.17 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Mason Plumlee: (4,400)
Plumlee would become one of the best values of the night if Paul Milsap (questionable, ankle) is out again. Milsap missed Monday’s game vs The Pistons and Plumlee was The Nuggets best player in the spot start. (40.25 DK points in 33 minutes) Now, he gets The Nets, who are easily one of the best matchups in the league for big men. (3.04 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Maxi Kleber: (4,300)
Kleber has been The Mavs’ primary big since they traded DeAndre Jordan to The Knicks. (25.25 DK PPG and 26.2 MPG) They will have their new players from New York, but they are guards/wings, keeping Kleber in a 25-30 minute role.
PG/SG: Bryn Forbes: (4,300)
As one of The Spurs’ youngest assets, Forbes should also see high minutes, regardless of how this game plays out. He scores 0.91 DK PPM when those three Spurs are off the floor and should log 30+ minutes. Poeltl and Bertans are the two best values, but Forbes and Bellinelli are not far behind.
PG/SG: Patty Mills: (4,200)
Just like with Gay, Mills is a player Pop cpuld rest if a blowout unfolds, but he is still one of their best remaining scorers. He is better for GPPs, but when all three of these players are off the floor, Mills scores 1.0 DK PPM, behind a 23.8% usage rate. (+5.8%)
SG/SF: Marco Belinelli: (4,000)
Belinelli should start at the two and play 25+ minutes vs The Warriors. He produces 0.99 DK PPM sans White, Aldridge, and DeRozan, and is supplying 28.16 DK PPG in the last three he has cracked 25 minutes.
SG/SF: Iman Shumpert: (3,900)
Shump is worth a gamble if you want pivot off The Spurs’ values. He just generated 32.5 DK points vs The Spurs on Monday and is averaging 18.85 DK PPG when the total has been 230+ points this season. (18 games)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com