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DraftKings NBA Picks – February 7th

What’s up everyone. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for February 7th, 2018. Tonight we get a decent slate with six games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.

If you want help with NBA research for FanDuel and DraftKings check out the best fantasy tools out there at FantasyLabs.com

Top Pick:

C: Andre Drummond: (9,800) It’s odd when you think about it, but Drummond’s rates have been better with PF Blake Griffin in town. In these first three games with Griffin, Drummond is averaging 51.9 DK PPG, while seeing a 27.2% usage rate, which is a large 5.8% jump from his average this season and also a 27.8% rebound percentage, which is a 1.7% increase. He has been an elite fantasy option during this time, averaging 1.6 DK PPM. Tonight, he is in a dream matchup vs The Nets, who have allowed the most DK points to centers this season. They are currently presenting a high opponent +/- of 7.21 points, which is the third best individual matchup for all the players in action tonight.

He should dominate this defense and he is currently rating as the best value on DraftKings tonight, based on Vegas props, with an implied DK score of 51.03 points. He should get us 50+ DK points in this spot and even the though the price tag is fair for this matchup, Drummond is still a great value, that can be deployed in both cash games and GPPs.

Value Picks:

SF/PF: T.J. Warren: (6,300) Last night, with starting SG Devin Booker (hip) and back up PG Isaiah Canaan (leg) out, along with center Greg Monroe who just left as a free agent, Warren came out and led the way for The Suns, scoring 24 points, six rebounds, four steals, and three assists in the loss to The Lakers. (44 DK points) As expected, he posted the highest usage rate on the team, with a 30.5% rate, which is a 4.7% bump from his average usage this season. Booker is expected to be out again tonight, which will keep Warren as The Suns’ main offensive weapon.

His matchup tonight vs The Spurs (1.27 opponent +/-) isn’t as strong as the one he saw vs The Lakers on Tuesday night, but his price has dropped $400, bringing him down to a very affordable $6,300.  At this salary he needs to score 31.5 DK points to reach five times value. In the 11 games he has played without Booker this season, he is averaging 32.3 DK PPG. Even though this isn’t the greatest matchup, the high usage he should see, along with this cheaper price, make Warren a very solid mid-tier target, that I am comfortable with in all formats.

SG/SF: Josh Jackson: (5,700) Just like with Warren, Jackson was great last night in a bigger role and has seen his price drop, even though he exceeded expectations on Tuesday night. In 36 minutes of action, which was the most minutes he has played this season, he put up 34.5 DK points vs The Lakers. This was his fifth game in a row of scoring double digit real points and he is now averaging 33.5 DK PPG in these last five games. With The Suns in the same position as last night, assuming Booker is out again, Jackson will start and should log 35-40 minutes tonight vs The Spurs.

The matchup is obviously a downgrade from last night (1.03 opponent +/-), but the rookie has shown us recently that he can handle tough matchups, with him scoring 31.5 DK points vs The Grizzlies last Monday and then 29 DK points vs The Jazz on Friday night, both in which were games that Booker played. His usage rises 3.5% with Booker off the floor this season and in the higher minutes I am expecting, Jackson should score 30+ DK points, especially when you consider this game is at home, where he has been a slightly more productive player this season. (1.7 DK point +/-)

PF/C: Taj Gibson: (5,400) Tonight, I want a piece of this Wolves team going against The Cavs. They have the highest team total of the night at 114 points and The Cavs have allowed an average of 118 points in their last two games. Gibson is a decent fantasy player this season, averaging 0.8 DK PPM and he should see 30+ minutes, assuming this game stays somewhat close. (MIN -4) In their first meeting vs The Cavs this season, Gibson was excellent, posting a double double of 16 points and 13 rebounds, while also chipping in with a block and assist in 31.2 minutes. (37.3 DK points)

As you could have guessed, this matchup is tremendous, currently sitting at a 7.3 opponent +/-.  At the moment, he is one of the better value plays, in terms of Vegas props, with an implied DK projection of 26.1 points. He should be able to meet five times value vs this defense, with 30-35 DK point upside if he can tally a double double, which is certainly possible, with The Cavs allowing a league high 60 total rebounds a game in their past three. His floor can be shaky, because he is such a low usage player, but I think Gibson is a very viable option vs this awful defense, that will most likely get overlooked in all formats. (9-12% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs)

Also Consider:  Alex Len (if he starts and Tyson Chandler is rested with this being a back to back. He is averaging 24.3 DK PPG in the two games without both Chandler and Monroe this season), Andrew Wiggins (35 DK points in the first game vs The Cavs this season. It’s insane to think about it, with LeBron James on the other end, but this is currently an opponent +/- of 7.79 points for starting SFs, which is the best overall matchup for any player tonight), Nikola Mirotic (sucked with the starters only scoring 12.75 DK points last game, but he still played 33 minutes. I think he will bounce back tonight and he is still a viable option, even though the price has increased), Stanley Johnson (over 20 DK points in five straight games), Tyler Ulis (wasn’t great last night, but will start again and should see 30+ minutes), Myles Turner (a GPP play only at this point, but he has upside vs this Pelicans defense, that is a 4.96 opponent +/- for centers), LaMarcus Aldridge (bounced back with 51.25 DK points vs a tough Jazz defense on Saturday night. He will benefit from playing way up in pace vs The Suns, who are a 3.15 opponent +/-), Jeff Teague (he isn’t my favorite play, but the matchup is just too good to ignore, with The Cavs sitting at an opponent +/- of 4.16 points), Dragan Bender (assuming he starts again over Chriss. Is averaging 28.5 DK PPG in his last three), Andrew Harrison, Spencer Dinwiddie (better if LeVert is out), Rajon Rondo (he is so hard to predict, but he has over 35 DK points in two of his last three starts), and Jahill Okafor. (24 DK points in 25 minutes last night in the first game since back up center Tyler Zeller was traded to The Bucks)

 

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