How’s it going everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 10th. As usual, for a Thursday, we get a small slate, of only four games. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,500)
Jokic has been on a roll (60.71 DK PPG in L6) and tonight, he is arguably in the best possible matchup for a center, vs The Clippers. They are the 9th worst defense in the association and Marcin Gortat has been getting bullied on a nightly basis. The Clippers are currently rating as a very high opponent +/- of 4.18 points for starting centers, which is the strongest matchup for any player suiting up on Thursday night.
Additionally, Jokic will be at home, where he has been a different animal this season, scoring a large 8.0 more DK PPG, vs when he is on the road. In 16 of Jokic’s 18 home games this season, he has taken on a positive opponent +/-, which has resulted in 51.25 DK PPG. This contest presents the highest O/U game total of Thursday night (225 points) and Jokic has 60-70 DK point upside.
PG/SG: Derick White: (4,900)
White really struggled with foul trouble last night (16.5 DK points in 15.4 minutes vs The Grizzlies), but we need to put this is in the past, with this only being the second time he has picked over three fouls in a game this season. Before this, White was playing very well as The Spurs’ starting PG (28.6 DK PPG in L9) and was coming off a 35.2 minutes vs The Pistons. The higher minutes was most likely a result of Rudy Gay (wrist) being out and Gay will also miss contest tonight vs The Thunder.
When Gay has been off the floor, White has seen his usage increase 2.7%, and he is supplying 0.87 DK PPM. This game is expected to be very competitive (OKC -1.5) and White should log 30+ minutes. Regardless of The Thunder being the best defense in the league, White should rebound after last night, with 25+ DK points.
PF/C: Blake Griffin: (9,200)
Griffin was bad on Wednesday night (26 DK points vs The Lakers), but I think he will bounce back in this up tempo matchup vs The Kings. First off, Griffin didn’t grab a single rebound last night vs The Lakers, which was the first time in his career he has not recored a rebound in a game. This is not going to happen again, especially tonight, with The Kings allowing the most RPG in The NBA. Second, The Kings are the 2nd fastest club this season, compared to The Pistons, who are 16th. This is a 4.6 possession increase for Detroit and whenever Griffin has played up in pace this season, he has been very productive. (47.87 DK PPG)
Furthermore, when the game total has been over 220 points, and there is also a small spread under five points, Griffin hasn’t disappointed. (48.6 DK PPG) Prior to Wednesday, he had scored 52.1 DK PPG in his previous four, and Griffin has a great chance of cracking 50 DK points against this Kings’ defense. (1.04 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Dion Waiters: (3,500)
Before Tuesday’s matchup with The Nuggets, Waiters had only played in one game since returning from the ankle injury that costed him the first few months of the season, but he looked solid vs Denver, scoring 25.75 DK points in 25 minutes. The Nuggets are a no push over on defense (10th in efficiency) and Waiters posted a 21.2% usage rate off the bench. There is some uncertainty with this recommendation, given he didn’t leave the bench in the two games prior to this, but you have to think HC Eric Spoelstra will be looking to get Waiters, a player they signed to a four year deal last summer, more playing time going forward, with him finally healthy.
The Heat are the 6th worst offense this season and Waiters is the type of scorer this team needs. He was one of their main players last season and I am expecting around 20 minutes off the bench for Waiters tonight vs The Celtics. That isn’t much and it hurts his floor/upside, but Waiters is scoring a very effective 1.16 DK PPM. As I have made clear, there is risk here, but with only four games tonight, Waiters seems like a viable gamble at his price.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,300)
Westbrook has notched a triple double in three of his last five games and at least a double double in four of those contests. (61.8 DK PPG) He is in a positive spot vs The Spurs (1.59 opponent +/-) and if you can fit him in, Westbrook the safest play on the board.
C: Andre Drummond: (9,100)
Drummond struggles mightily on the road, scoring almost ten more DK PPG in Detroit (9.4) , but this matchup vs The Kings is just too appetizing. They have given up the most RPG (3.17 opponent +/-) and Drummond is a guaranteed double double.
SG/SF: DeMar DeRozan: (8,300)
DeRozan sees the biggest usage increase sans Gay (+3.1%) and is scoring 1.25 DK PPM without him on the court. The Thunder are stout on defense, but DeRozan still has a shot at exceeding five times value.
PF/C: LaMarcus Aldridge: (7,200)
Aldridge is so unpredictable, but he does benefit from playing at home (3.5 more DK PPG) and his rebound rate goes up 2.5% without Gay. (1.16 DK PPM)
SF/PF: Danilo Gallinari: (7,100)
Galo has scored over 35 DK points in four of his last five games. I don’t like the matchup vs The Nuggets (0.47 opponent +/-), but he is in play for this small of a slate.
PG/SG: Lou Williams: (6,900)
Lou Will has been balling (37.1 DK PPG in his L8) and he is averaging 32.58 DK PPG when the O/U game total has been 220 points or more this season.
PF/C: Paul Milsap: (6,300)
Milsap saw his highest minute total since the toe injury on Tuesday (32.75 DK points in 30 minutes vs The Heat) and he should similar playing time in this tight tilt vs The Clippers. Milsap scores 1.12 DK PPM and is a fine target for all formats.
SG/SF: Bogdan Bogdanovic: (6,200)
Like most of The Kings, Bogey had a down night vs The Suns on Tuesday. (18.75 DK points) This was a tough hit for many of us, but he will be back at home, and Iman Shumpert could remain out (questionable, finger), which would keep Bogdanovic as a starter. Before Tuesday, Bogey was scoring 35.2 DK PPG in his last six, and he scores 4.8 more DK PPG at home.
SF/PF: Gordon Hayward: (5,700)
Kyrie Irving missed two of these games, but Hayward has looked so much better in these past four. (34.6 DK PPG) He has scored 1.2 DK PPM during this stretch, which is a significant difference from his 0.91 DK PPM average for the year. Assuming this game is close (BOS -2.5), Hayward should play 30+ minutes off the bench, and could approach 30 DK points.
PG/SG: Reggie Jackson: (5,000)
Jackson should produce playing up in pace vs The Kings. He is scoring 27.4 DK PPG when the pace increase has been over one possession this season. (SAC is +4.6)
SG/SF: Reggie Bullock: (4,600)
Bullock has played 32+ minutes in three straight games (22.8 DK PPG) and playing at faster pace vs The Kings is an obvious plus.
PG/SG: Bryn Forbes: (4,300)
Forbes is scoring 22.54 DK PPG in his last seven and has played over 30 minutes in seven of his last eight. His price is correct, but he is viable with this type of playing time.
SF/PF: Justin Jackson: (4,100)
Jackson’s role has increased as of late (28.6 DK PPG and 31.5 MPG) and if The Kings continue to give him extended run, while cutting Neman Bjelica’s minutes (19 MPG in L2), JJ should outproduce his current salary.
SF/PF : David Bertans: (3,700)
If Bertans didn’t get ejected in the 3rd quarter last night (10.5 DK points in 18 minutes vs The Grizzlies), he would have played closed to 30 minutes. In the six games that Gay had missed before last night, Bertans averaged 18.33 DK PPG.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com