What’s going on guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for January 10th, 2018. Tonight we get back to a full slate with 11 games to taregt. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: Demarcus Cousins: (11,000) I don’t like that Cousins will be on the road tonight in a difficult matchup vs Marc Gasol and The Grizzlies (0.82 opponent +/-), but his upside is just too high to ignore with Pelicans’ PF Anthony Davis expected to miss this game with an ankle injury. This will be the seventh game that Davis has sat this season and in the previous six, Cousins has been a beast, seeing a high 38.3% usage rate, which is a 4.8% increase, a 24.1% rebound percentage, which is a 4.4% bump, helping him to average 64 DK points a game. He scores an elite 1.67 DK points per minute with AD off the floor and in this game that has a small spread of only 1.5 points, Cousins should approach 40 minutes tonight.
In his first game vs The Grizzlies, he had no issues against this slow team, scoring 58.5 DK points in 38.2 minutes. I am expecting a similar line tonight with a ceiling around 70 DK points. DraftKings upped his price reflecting the idea that Davis might be out, but he is still a strong value play at $11,000. Obviously it’s hard to fully commit until we have the news about Davis, but Pelicans’ Head Coach Alvin Gentry said there’s a “good chance” the big man will sit this game out. Once we have confirmation about him being out, Boogie is an excellent play that should be considered in all formats.
PF/C: Bobby Portis: (4,700) Bulls starting PF Nikola Mirotic is expected to miss his second staright game with an illness, with him listed as doubtful for tonight. Monday night, with Mirotic out, Portis didn’t start, but he saw large role off the bench, scoring 30 DK points in 33 minutes vs The Rockets. He was very involved in the offense, seeing a 27.5% usage rate, which was the second highest rate on the team in this game, and a 2.2% increase from his usual rate this season. I don’t expect him to start, but he should see starter like minutes off the bench and I am projecting him for roughly 30 minutes tonight.
He is averaging 1.12 DK points per minute this season and with this kind of playing time, he should easily get us 25+ DK points in this okay matchup vs The Knicks. (1.67 opponent +/-) His price has only gone up $300 since Monday and we don’t have any of the Vegas props yet, but on Monday night before lock, Portis was the strongest value of the slate based on Vegas props. Once the props are released, I am expecting to Portis to once again be one of if not the strongest values available. At only $4,700, he is a very difficult player to fade on Wednesday night.
PG: Jawun Evans: (4,700) With both Austin Rivers (heel) and Milos Teodosic (foot) out on Monday, Evans drew the start and was terrific in the win over The Hawks, scoring 13 points, eight rebounds, four assists, four steals, and a block in a high 39 minutes of action. (39.5 DK points) Rivers and PF Blake Griffin (concussion) have already been confirmed out and even though we don’t have official word, I think Teodosic misses another game with the planter’s fasciitis issue. We most likely won’t know before lock, with this game at 10:30 PM EST, but either way if he was in or not, Evans should still start tonight at PG with Rivers sidelined. In these past two games, without the two guards and Griffin only playing a total of ten minutes before leaving in the first contest, Evans is averaging 33 DK points in 33.6 minutes, on a 18.9% usage rate and 23.9% assist percentage.
He is basically scoring 1.0 DK points per minute as the starting PG and he should log 30+ minutes tonight vs The Warriors, even if this game gets out of hand, given the fact that he is a rookie that this team obliviously wants to develop. This is a decent matchup for PGs (2.13 opponent +/-) and the pace increase will be a nice bump for him and Clippers, who are the 13th fastest team compared to The Warriors who are the 4th. His salary has rose $600, but I think he is still too cheap for the role he has with this shorthanded Clippers team. He should produce over five times value and is a player I am fine with in all formats, even if we don’t have any news about Teodosic before roster lock.
SF/PF: Thabo Sefolosha: (4,400) As a starter, Thabo is averaging 27 DK points in these past two games. Even before this as a bench player, he was playing very well, and over the last four games, he is averaging 28 DK points and 28.6 minutes. He has scored double digit real points in all four of these games and has filled up the stat sheet with at least three defensive stats in each game. He is scoring 1.0 DK points per minute during this stretch and assuming he stays a starter, he should log right around 30 minutes playing way up in pace vs The Wizards, which is a large 6.0 possession increase for The Jazz to be exact. (2.63 opponent +/-)
He should be able to produce over five times value with 30 DK point upside, depending on how many steals and blocks he can achieve. We will know before he lock if he will continue starting, with this game being one of the first to tip off at 7:00PM EST, and if he is like I am expecting, Sefolosha is a solid value play that is a very friendly option that can be rostered as a SF or PF.
Also Consider: Andre Iguodola/Nick Young (Steph and Klay have been ruled out. Young is better if he starts. Igu is viable either way as he will handle most of the ball handling), Jrue Holiday (43 DK points in the five games without AD this season. The matchup is tough, but the price isn’t bad for the role he will have), Rajon Rondo (34 DK points in all the games AD sat), E’Twaun Moore (same goes for Moore. The matchup is tough, but he is averaging 30 DK points in the games Davis was out), Dante Cunnigham (only if he starts for Davis), Lauri Markkanen (31.5 DK points in 34 minutes last game without Mirotic), C.J. Williams (34.75 DK points in 37 minutes last game off the bench. Was a huge part of their one point win over The Hawks and if Teodosic is out again like I am expecting, it would be hard to not see him play a lot, even if this game is a blowout), Domantas Sabonis (Myles Turner is doubtful with an elbow injury and Sabonis should start. He is averaging 32 DK points in the seven games without Turner and this is a solid matchup vs The Heat, who are 3.18 opponent +/-), Jamal Murray (if the game is close his minutes will be close to 40 and this matchup is great vs The Hawks, who are a 4.5 opponent +/-), Eric Gordon (rebounded nicely with 47 DK points last game. As you know, Harden is still out), Shabazz Napier (price is up, but would still be in play if Lillard is out again), C.J. McCollum (same with McCollum. 43.25 DK points last night without Lillard. He would carry the load playing up in pace vs The Rockets if Lillard was out), Goran Dragic (better if Tyler Johnson is out), Hassan Whiteside, and Kelly Olynyk. (would have to play a good amount if James Johnson was suspended for his fight with Serge Ibaka last night. He averaged 27 DK points in the eight games without Waiters and Johnson this season)