Happy Saturday everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 11th. For Saturday night, we get a decent slate, with six games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,700)
AD has been incredible in the new year, averaging 69.5 DK PPG, and scoring a tremendous 1.87 DK PPM. His rebounding has been much better, with 12 double doubles in a row, and a team high 25.3% rebound percentage in his last four games. Tonight, he heads to Minnesota, to face off against another former Kentucky Wildcat, Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT is a solid defender, but he is dealing with an ankle injury right now, and The Wolves have given up the 8th most RPG this season. (1.49 opponent +/-)
In the first matchup between these two this year, Davis scored 60.25 DK points in 40.5 minutes of work. This game has the highest O/U game total of the Saturday night (234.5 points) and the smallest spread of tonight’s six games. (NO -2) When the spread has been under five points and the total has been 230+ this season, AD has been dominant. (62.38 DK PPG) I always prefer Davis at home (-5.6 DK PPG on the road), but he is simply too cheap for how well he is currently playing.
SF: Royce O’Neale: (3,900)
Last night, with The Jazz down a plethora of guards (Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum, Grayon Allen, Thabo Sefolosha, and Raul Neto), O’Neale was inserted into the starting lineup vs The Lakers, and scored 32.75 DK points in the win. Even with The Jazz running away with this game (113-95), O’Neale saw 39.4 minutes, and was out there with the back-ups in garbage time. So, with all five of Rubio, Exum, Allen, Sefolosha, and Neto out again tonight, O’Neale will start at SG for The Jazz, and should play heavy minutes, no matter the outcome of this game vs The Bulls. (UTAH -11.5)
He has scored a solid 0.8 DK PPM when those five players have been off the court this year (+0.3 DK PPM) and the matchup is also a plus, with The Bulls ranking as the 7th worst defense in the league right now. O’Neale should produce over 20 DK points and is the best punt play available on Saturday night.
PG/SG: Donavan Mitchell: (8,500)
DraftKings was quick to adjust Mitchell’s price for his new role (was $7,900 last night), with The Jazz depleted, but Spida is still a very strong target at $8,500. Last night, Mitchell started at PG vs The Lakers and was outstanding, scoring 58 DK points across 32.5 minutes. In these last two games, he has posted a 32% usage rate and a 45.7% assist percentage, which are both team highs, and huge increases from his season averages. (1.5 DK PPM)
These wins have been a friendly reminder of how great Mitchell actually is as a player and The Jazz might want to consider keeping him at the one, even when Rubio returns. Nonetheless, tonight, he should carve up this Bulls’ defense for at least 45 DK points, with a ceiling over 60, if The Bulls can keep this game close.
PF/C: Richaun Holmes: (3,800)
Since the start of 2019, Holmes has been an awesome fantasy value. (27.65 DK PPG in L5) He has been scoring 1.38 DK PPM during this time, which is a notable difference from his average production for the year. (1.17 DK PPM) In The Suns’ last game, with Deandre Ayton in foul trouble all night vs The Mavs, Holmes saw his highest minutes total of the season (27.44 minutes), and made the most of the extra playing time. (37 DK points)
It’s very possible Ayton could struggle with foul trouble again tonight, going against Nikola Jokic, which would put Holmes in a bigger role once again. Either way, Holmes is looking at roughly 20 minutes off the bench, in this strong spot vs The Nuggets. (2.76 opponent +/-) He should return at least five times value and flirt with a double double on Saturday night.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,800)
Westbrook has been great (1.51 DK PPM in his last L6) and will be going against The Spurs, who he just posted a 24/13/24 triple double against on Thursday night. (83.25 DK points) These numbers were obviously inflated due to two overtimes, but Westbrook can clearly still expose this matchup in a standard four quarters of work. (1.59 opponent +/-) I like AD better, but Westbrook isn’t far behind.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,800)
The Joker is balling right now (61.25 DK PPG) and The Suns are an outstanding matchup for centers. (3.59 opponent +/-) In two games, Jokic is scoring 66.9 DK PPG vs Phoenix this season.
C: Karl-Anthony Towns: (9,900)
If Derick Rose (questionable, ankle) is out and KAT is deemed a full go (was questionable, but now isn’t on the injury report), this is a really nice price tag for him. He will be at home (5.2 more DK PPG), The Pelicans are 9th in pace (1.47 opponent +/-), and Towns has seen a 4% usage increase, when Rose, Robert Covington (out, knee), and Jimmy Butler (traded) have been off the floor. (1.56 DK PPM) If this scenario unfolds, KAT will be an elite GPP play.
C: Nikola Vucevic: (8,800)
A bunch of blowouts make Vuc’s game log look very ugly, but in his last four games that have been decided by ten points or less, he is averaging 53.8 DK PPG. Boston is a tough defense, but they are at their weakest inside (1.06 opponent +/-), and this game should stay relatively close, with The Magic at home. (BOS -7) In The Magic’s first meeting with The Celtics this season, Vuc scored 48.5 DK points in a winning effort.
C: Rudy Gobert: (8,200)
Gobert is in the best possible matchup for a player in this slate. (CHI is a 3.6 opponent +/-) He scored 46 DK points vs The Lakers last night and has 50+ upside, if this game doesn’t become an extreme blowout.
PG: Jeff Teague: (6,600)
Teague would be a really nice play if Rose is out. In the last two games without Rose and Covington, Teague scored 45 DK PPG, and The Pelicans are always a nice spot for PGs. (2.52 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Joe Ingles: (6,000)
Ingles is the next best ball handler The Jazz have right now and it has shown in these past two. (34 DK PPG) The price is correct, but Ingles remains viable, given Utah’s current situation.
PG: Elfird Payton: (5,600)
Payton has been a victim of multiple blowouts since returning, but he should play 30+ in this competitive setting vs The Wolves. He scores 0.98 DK PPM and is averaging 36.68 DK PPG in the four games he has gone over 30 minutes this season.
SF/PF: Josh Jackson: (5,600)
Devin Booker (back) is unlikely to play, which will keep Jackson a starter. He has been solid without Booker (33.25 DK PPG in L2) and could exceed value, even if The Nuggets are a strong defense. (10th in efficiency)
PF/C: Derrick Favors: (5,100)
Favors scored 36.25 DK points vs The Lakers last night, in only 25.3 minutes, and The Bulls are putrid against bigs. (2.31 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Kelly Oubre Jr.: (4,400)
Oubre has done well without Booker (34 DK PPG in L2) and should stay in a 30+ minute role off the bench, assuming Booker is confirmed out.
C: Willy Hernangomez: (4,100)
Hernangomez has scored 21.8 DK PPG in these last five without Cody Zeller (hand) and this is a perfect spot for him, with The Kings giving up the second most RPG. (3.17 opponent +/-) With a 5-8% projected ownership (via Fantasy Labs), Hernangomez is a really sneaky GPP flier.
SG/SF: Kyle Korver: (4,000)
Korver has been solid (20.13 DK PPG in L2) and will play more with The Jazz beat up. Plus, The Bulls are Korver’s former team, and they are allowing the 9th most made 3PPG.
SF/PF: David Bertans: (3,700)
Bertans played 25.4 minutes vs The Thunder on Thursday (24 DK points), with Rudy Gay (wrist) out of the lineup. Gay has already been ruled out and Bertans should see 25-30 minutes off the bench again tonight. (0.84 DK PPM without Gay this season)
PG/SG: Malik Monk: (3,600)
Ever since Micheal Jordan gave him a slap to the head, Monk’s minutes have been very unpredictable, but he should play more with Tony Parker resting. Monk scored 18.58 DK PPG in the first four Parker missed this season and the matchup is perfect vs The Kings, who are 22nd in defensive efficiency, and 2nd in pace. (1.59 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Gorgui Dieng: (3,100)
It sounds unlikely now, but if Towns was to sit for the first time in his career, Dieng would likely start at center, and be an awesome value play. Going against AD would be the main concern, but they would need at least 25 minutes from him if KAT was missing, and that would be plenty of time for Dieng to out produce his $3,100 price tag. (1.02 DK PPM)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com