Welcome back everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 14th. Tonight, we get a solid slate, with six games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG/SG: James Harden: (12,400)
I know you guys might be getting bored with hearing about Harden, but until one of Eric Gordon (knee) or Chris Paul (hamstring) returns, The Beard will always be a building block for me, unless his price goes over 30% of the cap. He has simply been incredible with those two players out, scoring 75.64 DK PPG in these past seven games. Somehow, coming off a 75.25 DK point game vs The Magic last night, Harden’s price has actually dropped $300. At his current salary of $12,400, he needs 62 DK points to meet five times value, which is something he has accomplished in a remarkable 13 of his last 16 games. Now, on top of Gordon/Paul, The Rockets will also be without the services of Clint Capela (thumb) on Monday.
In the 103 minutes Harden has played without these three, plus Carmelo Anthony, the reigning MVP is scoring an elite 1.88 DK PPM. He will be taking on The Grizzlies, which is never ideal (7th in defensive efficiency and last in pace), but they are dealing with a few key injuries (Kyle Anderson is out) and Harden just lit them up for 82 DK points across 41 minutes on New Year’s Eve. Plus, he will be at home, in Houston, where Harden has been unstoppable, scoring 70.92 DK PPG in his last seven. With a strong group of values opening up from The Celtics (below), Harden is easy to fit in tonight, and a must play in my opinion.
PG/SG: Terry Rozier: (3,700)
Just last week, Rozier was priced at $6,300 and he is honestly one of the best values I have ever seen in all my time of playing NBA DFS. Both, Kyrie Irving (quad) and Marcus Smart (illness) will be out tonight and in the four games Irving has missed this season, with Smart active, Rozier has started at PG, and averaged 33 DK PPG. There was 20 games without both of these guards last year, and in those instances, Rozier scored 34.1 DK PPG. When Smart, Irving, and Aaron Baynes (out, hand) have all been off the court this year, Rozier has supplied 1.03 DK PPM, which is a 0.2 DK PPM increase from his average production for this season.
Brad Wanamaker is a solid player and he will be the backup PG tonight vs The Nets, but I am not expecting him to see heavy playing time, which should push Rozier to close to 40 minutes, in this solid matchup vs The Nets. (1.16 opponent +/-) We could be looking at a ten times value return from Scary Terry and he should be in every single one of your lineups on Monday night.
SF/PF: Gordon Hayward: (5,300)
Hayward is also a very strong target with The Celtics down Smart and Irving. When Irving got hurt last season, HC Brad Stevens mentioned a few times how pivotal Hayward would have been In the All-Star PG’s absence. He would have been one of The Celtics’ primary ball handlers and it has shown in the contests Uncle Drew has sat this year. Hayward scored 45 DK PPG in the two most recent contests without Irving (near triple double vs Dallas and a 35 point effort vs The Wolves) and is averaging 36.75 DK PPG in the four total games the PG has missed this season.
In those games, Hayward has seen his usage rise a team high 7.9%, his assist rate jump a massive 20.3%, bringing him to 1.23 DK PPM, which is a huge difference from his 0.94 DK PPM average. Smart played in all of those games, so him being out as well, should just be another boost to Hayward’s role and minutes vs The Nets. He should fill up the stat sheet and I am expecting at least 30 DK points from GH.
PG/SG: Shelvin Mack: (3,400)
Mack was buried in the back of the bench, but after Kyle Anderson (ankle) went down with a sprained ankle on Saturday (eight minutes), Mack played 28.3 minutes vs The Heat. He scored 16.75 DK points and this is the most he has played since late November. Dillon Brooks (toe) is also out and Mack should play close to 30 minutes again vs The Rockets.
He scores 0.73 DK PPM this season and should produce six to seven times value, in this decent matchup. (HOU is 24th in defensive efficiency) Mack doesn’t have the upside Rozier possesses, but he is still a decent punt play, that can be deployed in all formats.
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,600)
AD is in a gorgeous spot vs The Clippers. (4.1 opponent +/-) They don’t have a single body that can matchup with The Brow and he is averaging 63.5 DK PPG across two meetings vs them this season. Davis has scored 65.04 DK PPG when facing an opponent +/- of 4.0 points or greater this season and it is possible to roster him and Harden together this evening.
PG/SG: Donovan Mitchell: (9,200)
Mitchell has been a stud playing as The Jazz PG in these last three games (55 DK PPG) and Ricky Rubio (hamstring), Dante Exum (ankle), and Raul Neto (groin) will all be out again. His matchup isn’t great (DET is a 0.4 opponent +/-), but Mitchell should go over 50 DK points for the fourth consecutive game.
PG: Mike Conley: (7,600)
Conley scored 41.5 DK points vs The Heat on Saturday and his usage goes up 1.7% when Brooks and Anderson are off the floor. He is averaging 34.8 DK PPG in two contests vs The Rockets this season and is underpriced for the bigger role he should take on.
PF/C: Montrezl Harrell: (7,100)
Harrell is scoring 41.3 DK PPG in his last three and this matchup is strong vs The Pelicans. (1.48 opponent +/-) His price is fair, but Harrell has a strong ceiling in this slate high O/U game total. (240.5 points, highest of the night by 13 points)
PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (6,500)
Russell has been better in these last two (40.38 DK PPG) and he will have a much easier time with Smart out. Smart has been the best defensive PG in The NBA this season (ranks 1st in real defensive +/-) and Russell is also at home, where he is generating 4.1 more DK PPG.
SF/PF: Marcus Morris: (5,900)
Morris is averaging 33.3 DK PPG in his last three and he scores 1.18 DK PPM without Irving, Smart, and Baynes. He should have no issues recording over 30 DK points and is just another great value play from this Celtic’s situation.
PF/C: Derick Favors: (5,300)
Favors has been playing more with The Jazz beat up (29.88 DK PPG and 26.8 MPG in L2) and this matchup vs The Pistons is above average. (1.88 opponent +/-)
SF: Royce O’Neale: (4,700)
As the starting SG for The Jazz, O’Neale has been an awesome fantasy value. (33.8 DK PPG and 38.5 MPG in L2) He will continue to start and should still exceed value, even with his price increasing $800.
SF/PF: P.J. Tucker: (4,400)
Tucker should be very busy tonight. He’s going to play close to 40 minutes and potentially see some time at center vs The Grizzlies. Tucker has scored 26.6 DK PPG in his past theee and should crack 25 again.
SF/PF: David Bertans: (3,900)
With Rudy Gay (wrist) out, Bertans has played 24 and 30 minutes in these last two games. (24 DK PPG) Gay will miss another one tonight and Bertans is viable vs The Hornets. (1.31 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Kyle Korver: (3,800)
Korver has been a nice spark off the bench for this depleted Jazz backcourt (22.1 DK PPG) and should be low owned, given the amount of value available.
PF/C: Marquese Chriss: (3,100)
Nene will most likely start, but the chances of him playing more than 20 minutes are very unlikely, which brings me to the much younger and more athletic Chriss. He has played 12 and 11 minutes in these last two, and we have to expect above 20 with Capela now missing. Chriss scores 0.8 DK PPM and should score 15+ DK points, with a decent ceiling, if he ends up being Houston’s primary big man.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com