What’s up everyone. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 15th. Tonight, we get a decent slate, with six games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
C: Nikola Jokic: (10,300)
Tonight, The Nuggets and Warriors, who are the top two teams in The West, face off for the second time this season. In the first meeting, it was a very tight contest (100-98), and tonight is expected to be extremely competitive as well, with this contest having the smallest spread of Tuesday’s six. (GSW -1) Jokic has been incredible in the new year (60.12 DK PPG) and he has a huge advantage with this game being on his home floor, in Denver. In his last four home games, The Joker is scoring a robust 66.88 DK PPG, and overall, for the year, he is producing 9.0 more DK PPG in The Pepsi Center, compared to when on the road.
Plus, The Warriors have been very susceptible to centers recently (3.17 opponent +/-), and in the 18 home games Jokic has faced a positive opponent +/-, he is averaging 52.5 DK PPG. He has tallied a triple double in two of his last four home games and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if we saw another from The Joker on Tuesday night.
PG: Trae Young: (6,200)
Young has logged over 30 minutes in five of his last six games and tonight he should do so again, with Jeremy Lin (doubtful, illness) not expected to play. For his recent production, Young is underpriced, with him scoring 34.79 DK PPG in his last six starts.
This is a tough spot vs The Thunder, who are the #1 rated defense in the league, but I am projecting Young for 32 minutes, which is just enough time for him to exceed five times value, with him scoring 1.15 DK PPM, when Lin, Dwayne Dedmon (doubtful, ankle), and Kent Bazemore (out, ankle) have all been off the floor this season. At only $6,200, Young is one of the better mid-tier targets of the night.
SG/SF: Deandre Bembry: (4,500)
Since joining the starting lineup, Bembry has been playing 33.2 MPG in these last five, which is a sizable jump from his 24.3 MPG average for the season. He has scored 23.95 DK PPG during this span, which includes a 7.5 DK point dud vs The Nets last Wednesday. Bembry should have to play 30+ minutes without Lin, Dedmon, and Bazemore tonight, and when all three of these players have been off the floor, Bembry is supplying 0.93 DK PPM.
As I said above, the matchup is tough vs The Thunder, but Bembry scores 4.9 more DK PPG when at home, and this tilt has the highest O/U game total of Tuesday night. (234.5 points) Barring a huge blowout (OKC -8.5), Bembry should surpass five times value in this high scoring affair.
PG/SG: Dennis Schroder: (5,400)
Schroder is fresh off a 37.25 DK point showing vs The Spurs this past Saturday night and now, he gets to take on his former club, The Atlanta Hawks. In their first matchup of the season, Schroder went off for 36.3 DK points in 28.2 minutes of action. The Hawks are the fastest team in the association and they are also the 6th worst defense. (1.67 opponent +/- and 1.7 possession increase)
In the five games this season that Schroder has seen a positive opponent +/- and a pace increase of 1.0 possessions or more, he has generated 31.9 DK PPG. Additionally, when the O/U game total has been over 230 points, Schroder has averaged 33.06 DK PPG. He is definitely a player that believes in revenge and I think we will see another 30+ DK point performance from Schroder on Tuesday.
PG: Russell Westbrook: (11,600)
The price tag is hefty, but Westbrook is the top overall play vs this fast Hawks’ team. He is averaging 55.89 DK PPG when facing a pace increase of 1.0 possessions or more and is scoring 58.5 DK PPG when the total is over 230 points, and The Thunder are on the road.
PG/SG: Stephen Curry: (9,900)
Finding The Warriors in this tight of a spread is rare and Curry has been a much better fantasy player on the road this season. (5.2 more DK PPG) He just exploded for 74.5 DK points vs The Mavs in Dallas this past Sunday and Curry is scoring a large 60.31 DK PPG in the last four Warriors’ road games that have been decided by single digits. These two teams are the top two seeds in The West and I could see Curry having another huge night, even if the matchup isn’t in his favor. (DEN is a -0.74 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Domantas Sabonis: (7,900)
If Myles Turner (questionable, shoulder) misses his fifth straight game, Sabonis should top 40 DK points in this prime spot vs The Suns. (3.01 opponent +/-) DraftKings has increased his price $400, but Sabonis is still too cheap for how well he has played as The Pacers’ starting center, sans Turner. (40.25 DK PPG in L4)
PF/C: John Collins: (7,500)
Collins’ minutes have been steady (34.5 MPG in L4), obviously leading to better fantasy numbers. (42.75 DK PPG) The price tag is correct, but Collins is still one of the better ways to gain exposure to this slate high total.
C: Steven Adams: (7,000)
Adams has scored 36 DK PPG in his last three and The Hawks are giving up the 4th most RPG. (2.71 opponent +/-)
PG/SG: Kris Dunn: (6,900)
This is a huge pace bump for The Bulls (4.9 possession increase) and Dunn has produced 34.55 DK PPG in his last five.
PF: Lauri Markkanen: (6,100)
Tonight’s matchup vs The Lakers projects to be a close game (LA -7) and Markkanen is scoring 34.8 DK PPG in the last three Bulls’ games that have been decided by less than ten points. Plus, LA is a very strong matchup for bigs. (1.41 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Paul Milsap: (6,000)
Milsap has been hit or miss (26.06 DK PPG in L4), but this is a nice price for him, considering the importance of this game.
PG/SG: Derick Rose: (5,900)
If Jeff Teague (GTD, ankle) is unable to suit up, Rose will be a worthwhile risk at this salary. In the six games without Teague and Jimmy Butler (traded) this year, Rose has been a beast. (39.38 DK PPG)
PG/SG: Malcom Brogdon: (5,700)
Brogdon had scored 30+ DK points in four consecutive games, before Sunday’s 19 point win over The Hawks (29.5 DK points), and The Heat have struggled with opposing guards all season. (1.02 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Kevin Huerter: (4,800)
Going against The Thunder limits a shooter like Huerter’s upside (6th least made 3PPG allowed), but he is still viable, given how much he has been playing. (32.44 DK PPG and 37.5 MPG in L4)
PF/C: Richaun Holmes: (4,000)
Holmes is simply underpriced for how effective he has been (27.1 DK PPG in L6) and The Pacers are a positive spot for backup centers. (1.56 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Andre Iguodala: (3,900)
Igu is scoring 22.5 DK PPG in his last six and should see 25-30 minutes off the bench, in this clash between the two best of The West.
PF/C: Omari Spellman: (3,800)
With Dedmon out on Sunday, Spellman got the start at center, and recorded 31 DK points in 30 minutes vs The Bucks. If he is confirmed The Hawks’ starting center again, Spellman will be the best punt of this slate. He has scored 1.19 DK PPM this season, when Dedmon, Lin, and Bazemore have all been off the floor.
C: Ivica Zubac: (3,400)
Lakers’ HC Luke Walton is “likely” to change the starting five for tonight and if I were to guess, it will be Zubac entering the lineup, with JaVale McGee heading to the bench. Zubac has played 13 MPG in The Lakers’ last three and has made the most of the expanded playing time. (18.99 DK PPG) He is scoring 1.09 DK PPM this season and would be a smash play, if deemed the starting center, vs this awful Bulls’ defense. (3.6 opponent +/- and 6th most RPG allowed)
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com