What’s up guys. Alex here, and these are my DraftKings NBA Picks for January 16th. Tonight, we get back to a full slate, with eight games to attack. As always, if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. Also, I recommend following me, because if anything changes with these plays below or if any injury news effects the slate, I try to address the situations I find important before tip off. @Hunta512.
PG/SG: James Harden: (13,000)
Even at $13,000, Harden is still the best point per dollar value available for Wednesday night. Eric Gordon (questionable, knee) is tentatively expected to return tonight, but Harden will still have a godly role, with Chris Paul (hamstring), and Clint Capela (thumb) both remaining out. In all the time The Beard has logged without these two and Carmelo Anthony, he has produced an outrageous 2.02 DK PPM. His usage and assist percentage will both be around 50% and this is a nice spot for him, going against The Nets, who are a 2.1 possession increase for The Rockets.
Another big factor that is in Harden’s favor, is that he will be at home, where he is averaging 6.2 more DK PPG this season. At a price of $13,000, Harden needs 65 DK points to meet five times value. In his last five home games, this man has scored 76.65 DK PPG. From a fantasy perspective, Harden is currently doing things we may never see done again, and as they say, don’t fix it if it isn’t broken. For tonight, I would continue to lock in The Beard, even if his price has hit a historical level.
SF: Royce O’Neale: (4,500)
The Jazz gave Kyle Korver some extra playing time in their last game (32 minutes), but I think we see O’Neale get back to heavy minutes tonight. In the first two games without Raul Neto (groin), Ricky Rubio (hamstring), and Dante Exum, O’Neale played 38.5 MPG, and scored 33.75 DK PPG.
He is averaging 0.74 DK PPM when all of these players, plus Alec Burks and Thabo Sefolosha, are off the court, and tonight O’Neale should see 30-35 minutes vs The Clippers, who are 23rd in defensive efficiency, and 9th in pace. His price has been cut $200 since his last game and I am expecting O’Neale to return five to six times value in this spot.
PG/SG: D’Angelo Russell: (7,300)
Russell has been outstanding in the new year, averaging 39.68 DK PPG. He has led The Nets in usage (30.9%) and assist rate (41.4%), while playing 30.9 MPG. He is scoring 1.28 DK PPM during this time and he should play over 30 minutes tonight, with The Rockets only favored by five points.
In the last seven Nets’ games that have been decided by single digits, Russell has played 31.8 MPG. Plus, on Monday night, he logged 37.03 minutes in the win over The Celtics (55.75 DK points), with Shabazz Napier (hamstring) out, and there is a chance that the back up PG sits again on Wednesday. (currently questionable) Either way, if Napier is in or not, Russell is too cheap right now, in this type of game environment. (223.5 point O/U game total)
PG/SG: Shelvin Mack: (3,800)
With Kyle Anderson (ankle) out, Mack has been solid with an expanded role off the bench for The Grizzlies. (21.5 DK PPG) He only played 23 minutes on Monday, but Memphis lost by 18 to Houston. In the previous game, with Anderson only playing eight minutes before getting injured, Mack saw 28 minutes, in a more competitive contest vs The Heat. (108-112)
Tonight, The Grizzlies are only six point underdogs to The Bucks, so if this game can stay relatively close to it’s spread, Mack should play 25+ minutes. He scores a solid 0.74 DK PPG this season and should get over 20 DK points, regardless if The Bucks are a difficult matchup. (0.48 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Anthony Davis: (11,600)
AD is the ultimate GPP play tonight. His ownership will naturally be lower than Harden’s (13-16% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs) and if The Pelicans can keep up with The Warriors in The Oracle (GSW -7), Davis should feast in this strong matchup. (3.1 opponent +/-) He has been unstoppable (68.92 DK PPG in L6) and Davis has a decent 1.12 DK point +/- in The Oracle.
PG/SG: Steph Curry: (10,100)
Curry has been red hot (19 made threes over his L2) and if New Orleans can compete, Curry should have a huge night. (2.49 opponent +/-) In their first matchup vs The Pelicans this season, Curry scored 58 DK points.
PG/SG: Donovan Mitchell: (9,100)
Very much like with O’Neale, I am expecting a rebound performance from Mitchell. Before his 40.75 DK point outing vs The Pistons, Mitchell scored 56.75 DK PPG in the first two sans Rubio, Neto, and Exum. I do worry about The Clippers’ strong pair of defensive guards (Avery Bradley and Patrick Beverly), but overall, they are 23rd in efficiency, and Mitchell’s big role should out trump any individual matchup.
PG: Kyrie Irving: (8,600)
The Celtics desperately need a win right now (losers of three straight) and Irving always steps up against the best teams in The NBA. He has scored 43.5 DK PPG against clubs with a record of .500 or better this season and is averaging 54.3 DK PPG vs The Raptors in two meetings. Also, he sees a slight boost with being at home. (2.7 more DK PPG this season)
C: Rudy Gobert: (8,500)
Gobzilla has been a beast with The Jazz shorthanded (52.3 DK PPG in L3) and this matchup vs The Clippers has been gold for opposing centers. (4.18 opponent +/-)
PF/C: Montrezl Harrell: (7,200)
Harrell has played 34 minutes in each of their last two games and it has obviously led to big numbers. (47.4 DK PPG) Plus, The Jazz are a decent spot for centers (1.87 opponent +/-), and Harrell scores 5.6 more DK PPG at home.
SG/SF: Joe Ingles: (5,900)
As one of the only remaining playmakers for The Jazz, Ingles has been a solid fantasy option (31 DK PPG), and he should exceed five times value at this slight discount.
PF/C: Jaren Jackson Jr.: (5,600)
Jackson is scoring 29.15 DK PPG in his last two and Marc Gasol (questionable, elbow) could be out, which would mean more time at center for JJ. When Gasol is off the floor, along with Dillon Brooks and Anderson, Jackson scores 1.0 DK PPM. If Gasol was out, you would have to expect 30+ minutes for Jackson.
SF/PF: P.J. Tucker: (4,700)
Tucker is always viable based off his high playing time and he should see close to 40 minutes, including some time at center, if The Nets can keep this game competitive. Brooklyn is always a good spot for front-court players and I could see Tucker notching a double double in this game.
SG/SF: Kyle Korver: (4,200)
As I said above, I expect O’Neale to play more tonight, lowering Korver’s minutes, but the sharp shooter is still in play at only $4,200. He is scoring 22.4 DK PPG in these last three with Utah beat up.
SF/PF: Omri Cassipi: (3,500)
Cassipi scored 21.75 DK points in 24.48 minutes Monday vs The Rockets, which was the first full game without Anderson. Given this was a blowout, it is hard to project Cassipi’s playing time, but he should play 20+ minutes, which should be enough time for him to out produce this soft salary (0.91 DK PPM), especially if Gasol was ruled out.
C: Nene: (3,400)
I didn’t expect it, but Nene, even with his limitations, still led The Rockets’ centers with 14 minutes on Monday. (5,75 DK points) He will start again for Capela and his upside is capped, given he wont play over 20 minutes, but Nene scores a serviceable 0.7 DK PPM, and he is in the best possible matchup for a player on Wednesday night. (BKN is 1 4.81 opponent +/-) I still prefer Marquese Chriss for GPPs (0,8 DK PPM), but Nene’s role is clearly more stable.
*Please note some of these stats are from FantasyLabs.com