What’s up everybody. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for January 17th, 2018. Tonight’s we get back to a big slate with ten games to attack. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: Anthony Davis: (10,500) The Brow did wonders for us last night, exploding for 75 DK points in the OT win over The Celtics. This was the second straight game of him posting a double double that includes 40+ points. His usage has been very high in these two wins, with a 36.5% usage rate, which is a very large 8.1% jump for his average rate this season. I was actually at this game last night and you could tell from the start that the game plan, as it was in their win over The Knicks, was to get the ball in Davis’s hands as much as possible. He didn’t hit any threes, but he was extremely effective with his outside throughout the game. In these past two games, with this high of usage, he is scoring an elite 1.7 DK PPM. I won’t sit here and say he is going to put up over 70+ DK points for the third straight game, but AD should still definitely still get us value, as he price has barely adjusted, only increasing $300 from last night. On top of the increased rates, he gets a very nice matchup against The Hawks, who have struggled with opposing big men all season. (4.56 opponent +/-)
I am expecting 55+ DK points out of AD, with 60-65 DK point upside in this spot. Just like with last night, many people wanted to play Cousins over Davis, but I think taking the slight discount with AD is the smarter move once again. I talked about how Davis had a much better history vs The Celtics last night and this is a similar situation with this being a back to back set. We all know Cousins has his mental and effort issues, and this always shows up when he is playing the second night of a back to back, with him averaging 2.5 less DK points than Davis in the second leg of back to back sets over the last two seasons. Furthermore, I could see that the fact they have now played two straight overtime games really wearing Cousins out. Now, don’t get me wrong, Boogie is obviously in play vs this soft Hawks’ defense, but I just prefer AD at the cheaper cost and will be riding him and this hot streak again tonight. UPDATE: Pelicans’ Head Coach Alvin Gentry says he wants to find rest minutes for both AD and Cousins tonight with this being a back to back. This scares me and I think it is smart to move to other high end plays. I am specifically going to work around Aldridge who will have high usage without Kawhi vs The Nets and Nikola Jokic, who thrived last night with the Nuggets’ new small ball lineup. Jokic is also facing a Clippers defense that has struggled vs centers this season (4.85 opponent +/- ) and is supposed to be without Deandre Jordan (ankle).
PF/C: Montrezl Harrell: (4,500) Harrell hasn’t started these last two games with starting center Deandre Jordan (ankle) sidelined, but he has been the most productive center overall for The Clippers, averaging 27.3 DK points in 27 minutes a game off the bench. Jordan is listed as questionable for tonight, but he is much closer to doubtful and is expected to be available for this matchup vs The Nuggets. Who knows if Head Coach Doc Rivers will keep Willie Reed as the starting center, but either way, it should be Harrell who sees the most playing time without Jordan. There is also a chance that The Clippers go small with Blake Griffin at the five, particularly if The Nuggets elect to go small like they did last night, with four guards/wing players around Nikola Jokic at center.
If this was the case, which I think is likely, there’s a chance that Reed could be eschewed out of the rotation completely, and Griffin and Harrell would handle all of the center minutes. No matter what they do with their starting five, I am projecting Harrell for roughly 25 minutes, which is enough for him to surpass five times value, with him scoring a productive 1.08 DK PPM this season. Even with Jordan healthy and active in some games recently, Harrell has still be able to meet value. I am expecting 25+ DK points out of him tonight, even though this isn’t the best matchup vs The Nuggets. (0.9 opponent +/-)
SG/SF: Will Barton: (5,500) As I just stated, last night The Nuggets went with a smaller lineup for their starting five, and it resulted in a win, so I think there’s a good chance The Nuggets roll out this same lineup again. Barton drew the start at SF and was great, scoring 39.75 DK points in a team high 42 minutes. We can’t expect this amount of playing time again, but if he starts, he should log 35+ minutes in this plus matchup vs The Clippers, who are a current opponent +/- of 4.52 points. His usage wasn’t affected that much by playing with all the starters, seeing a 21.5% usage rate last night, which is almost identical to his rate for the season.
He is scoring 0.93 DK PPM this year and with 35-40 minutes, Barton should be able to score 30+ DK points against this defense. With this being one of the last games of the night (10:30 PM EST), there is a pretty good chance we don’t have a confirmed lineup, but I still think Barton is worth the risk at this price, which is low enough that he could still achieve value even if he still came off the bench in this high scoring affair. (222 O/U game total) UPDATE: Nuggets starting PG Jamal Murray has been ruled out for tonight with a concussion. This almost guarantees Barton a spot in the starting five and it is a solid bump to his usage. Gary Harris also should see a bump in his rates and becomes a better play. It’s hard to say now if they will go small, but if Emmanuel Mudiay started at PG, he would become an excellent punt play. This also helps Wilson Chandler’s minutes. He should have to play a ton and only costs $4,100.
PF/C: Jordan Bell: (4,500) The Warriors chose to go small on Monday night vs The Cavs and start Bell, but he was ineffective only scoring 9.25 DK points in the win. This hurt my lineups, but I am going to give him another chance, as he should draw another start with PF Draymond Green out tonight with a sore shoulder. In the six other games Green was out this season, Bell was usually the starter and averaged 23.3 DK PPG, which is a 7.5 DK point differential. SF Andre Iguodola (calf) is also out, which should help Bell’s playing time. I think we see him log 25+ minutes in this nice matchup vs The Bulls, who have allowed the 5th most DK points to PFs this season. (2.4 opponent +/-)
He is averaging 1.11 DK PPM and with 25 minutes, with the room for more, Bell should be able to score five to six times value, barring bad foul trouble. His bad game on Monday may hold some people back from rostering him, further improving his DFS stock for tonight. He is a strong value in my opinion and is someone I don’t mind in both cash games and GPPs.
Also Consider: Deyonta Davis/Jamychal Green (Marc Gasol and Brandan Wright are both out. Davis should start and will play close to 25 minutes with the potential for more. He averages 0.95 DK PPM and is a great value play in all formats. Green should now play close to 35 minutes is also very viable with his SF/PF eligiblty), LaMarcus Aldridge (46.5 DK PPG in the games without Manu, Kawhi, and Gay. He must be considered in all formats against The Nets, who are a 5.36 opponent +/-), Kyle Anderson (will start for Leonard and should play a good amount with Gay and Manu also out), David Bertrans (has been the biggest beneficiary with all three of these Spurs out. In the full three games without them, he is averaging 31 DK PPG, which is a team high 19.1 DK point increase. He is only $3,900 and is a very strong value vs The Nets), Josh Hart (26.25 DK points in 32 minutes as a starter last game. Unclear if he will start for Ball, but he should play close to 30 minutes even with Ingram expected to be back), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (usage should be up without Ball and he can now travel with them on the road. 45,75 DK points vs The Grizzlies without Ball last time out), Omri Cassipi (should soak up most of Igu’s minutes. In the only game he has played without Green and Iguduola, Cassipi scored 21.75 DK points in 25.5 minutes), Jrue Holiday (been awesome averaging 49 DK points over these last three and the matchup is nice vs The Hawks, who are a 4.11 opponent +/-), Gary Harris, Skal Labissiere (started last game and played 28 minutes. The plan from here on out is for The Kings to rest at least two veterans a night. Skal is questionable, but if he plays, he is a solid value play that should start and play close to 30 minutes), Willie Cauley-Stein (same goes for WCS. He should play a good amount going forward. He logged 40 minutes last game and has a solid Vegas prop implied score of 30 DK points), De’Aaron Fox (will start and should play 30+. Also his rates could be up depending on who is rested), Dennis Schroder (48.5 DK points on a ridiculous 40% usage rate in these past two games and his matchup is awesome vs The Pelicans, who are currently a high 5.78 opponent +/- for starting PGs), Ian Clark, Wilson Chandler (if they go small and he starts again), Rajon Rondo (nice matchup vs The Hawks, but they refuse to let this man close games).