What’s going on guys. Alex here, and I am back with my DraftKings NBA picks for January 26th, 2018. Tonight we get back to a full slate with ten games to target. Be sure to follow all of the injury news tonight, all the way up until the 7:00PM EST lock, to see if any new injury news comes up. As always if any of these picks help you win or if you need any advice, let me know on Twitter. @Hunta512.
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PF/C: LaMarcus Aldridge: (8,300) It doesn’t make much sense to me, but Aldridge’s price has dropped $400 since his last game. It’s not like he had a bad outing his last time out, he was actually excellent, dropping 49.5 DK points in the win over The Cavs on Tuesday night. He was rested Wednesday night, for the second game of a back to back set, so now he has three days of rest under his belt and there are no concerns of him being rested again or limited in anyway, with no game tomorrow. In fact, in the eleven times he has played this season after seeing three or more days of rest, he is exceeding his DK expectations by 3.0 points. He won’t be playing a horrendous defense like The Cavs in his last start, but he still gets a very nice matchup tonight vs The Sixers, who rank 2nd in pace and are a solid 3.09 opponent +/- for opposing starting PFs.
He has already showed us he can expose this defense, scoring 46 DK points on them just earlier this month. (Embiid played in this game) He should once again lead this team in usage, with SF Kawhi Leonard (quad), SF Rudy Gay (heel), and SG Manu Ginobili (thigh) all still out. In the six full games he has played without these three, he averaged a team high 29% usage rate and 44 DK PPG. The price drop makes him a very nice value and he should produce 40-45 DK points. Whenever he is priced under $9,000, with Leonard out of the picture, Aldridge should always be considered and I am going to continue to ride him tonight vs The Sixers, with a good amount of rest in his favor.
PF/C: Tristan Thompson: (3,600) Cavs’ Head Coach Tyron Lue said he was going to make a change to the starting five and he has decided to go with a bigger lineup and start Tristan Thompson, moving Jae Crowder back to the bench. It’s unclear how much playing time Thompson will actually see, but they are playing The Pacers tonight, who play two actual big men in Domantas Sabonis and Thaddeus Young at the four and five spots, which should push Thompson to logging around 25 minutes as the starting center. This is a beautiful matchup for him, as The Pacers have allowed the most DK points to centers this season, currently rating as 4.67 opponent +/-.
This season, Thompson is averaging 0.75 DK PPM, but when he is one the court with Crowder on the bench, he sees a small bump, scoring 0.78 DK PPM. Obviously, this isn’t a huge shift, but with a modest projection of 25 minutes, I think Thompson has a great chance of scoring 20+ DK points in this awesome matchup. $3,600 is a very cheap price for a starter and even though he will be popular (31-35% projected ownership via Fantasy Labs), Thompson is one of the strongest point per dollar values of this slate, that needs to be considered in all formats.
PG: Dejounte Murray: (5,400) I know I keep writing him up, but Murray remains one of the best values available, even at a higher price tag. In his last game, even though it was a tough and slow matchup vs The Grizzlies, along with that he didn’t have play higher minutes due to them running away with this game (17 point win), Murray still got us value scoring 26.5 DK points in only 24 minutes of work. As The Spurs ‘starting PG over Tony Parker, Murray is averaging 35 DK PPG and 27.1 MPG, which is a great 1.22 DK PPM.
These numbers are slightly inflated because of his dominating game vs The Cavs (49.5 DK points), but he will see another very strong matchup for PGs tonight, taking on The Sixers, who are currently presenting an opponent +/- of 3.39 points. This is also a rather large pace increase for him and The Spurs, with The Sixers ranking as the 2nd fastest team this season, compared to The Spurs who are the second slowest club. (6.1 possession increase) At his new higher salary of $5,400, Murray needs to score 27 or more DK points to meet value. He should accomplish this, with 30-35 DK point upside in this game that has a small spread of only 3.5 points, which should help him approach 30 minutes in this plus matchup.
PF/C: Ed Davis: (3,400) Davis has been great as the primary big man off the bench for The Blazers over their past three games. He has grabbed ten rebounds in all three games and is averaging 27 DK PPG. His minutes have been up in these games, averaging 23 MPG vs his 18.3 MPG average for this season. He has been leading the team with a high 24.4% rebound percentage and is scoring an efficient 1.12 DK PPM. All of these contests have remained close, so the increase in playing time seems to be by design and with tonight’s matchup vs The Mavs having a spread of only 1.5 points, he should see 20+ minutes again.
This matchup vs The Mavs is a strong one for the big man, as they have allowed the 5th most total rebounds per game this season and are a current opponent +/- of 3.0 points. There is always risk with any Blazer outside of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, but if the trend of his higher minutes continues, Davis has a pretty good shot of getting over 20+ DK points again, which would be an awesome return at his $3,400 price tag that hasn’t adjusted since his last game.
Also Consider: Dwight Howard (the price is rising, but Howard is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 48 DK PPG in his last six starts. He should score close to 45 DK points again vs a very weak Hawk interior defense, that is currently sitting at a 5.47 opponent +/-), Greg Monroe (starting center Tyson Chandler didn’t score a single DK point and only played ten minutes last game, while Monroe was a beast scoring 42.75 DK points in 29 minutes off the bench vs The Pacers. Backup center Alex Len was out and he is listed as questionable for tonight and if he was out, there is a chance Monroe might start after his effort last game. Even if he didn’t start and Len was out, he would be worth a deep GPP flier after the way the minutes were distributed last game), Dennis Smith Jr. (only scored 21 DK points his last game, but before this he scored 30 or more DK points in six straight games. He is only $6,100), Jrue Holiday (great pace increase and matchup vs The Rockets, who are a 5.0 opponent +/-), Clint Capela, Darius Miller (22 DK points and 33 minutes over last four), Kyle Anderson (33.5 DK PPG over last four. Minutes should stay high with Manu, Gay, and Lenoard out again), Zach LeVine (minutes are slowly trending up and this is a great matchup vs The Lakers), and Trey Burke. (out of nowhere he exploded for 38.5 DK points in 28 minutes off the bench last night. You never know with The Knicks’ rotations, but he should play more again tonight after this, maybe not 28 minutes, but 20+ is a reasonable expectation)